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Upside from activity in Q4-2011 and Q1-2012

Three companies stick out in the biggest way (and do not forget Aminex).



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Its worth remembering.

The ongoing Nyuni-2 well is targeting 1.5TCF of GIP (circa 250 MMBOE) of which hopes are 880BCF are recoverable (circa 146 MMBOE).

Aminex have 65% of this and are operator.

So thats possible net to AEX of 572 BCF of gas (circa 94.9 Million barrels of oil equivalent).

Which is why you can see why Nyuni-2 is a high impact well for a small 50 Million market cap company.

For comparison people are screaming RKH is cheap at 562M market cap, with now perhaps 200MMBO. Simple (and incorrect) division of the market cap by 2 for the barrels of oil equivalent means AEX could be moving to being a 280M market cap company, or say the share price rising by a multiple of 6 on this one well result, if its top end good results - and that would still be "cheap". Its rough and ready calculations but given isolated oil in the NFB compared to easy to develop gas at this location - I think its fair.

6p to 36p in real terms.

For Goldman Sachs it would show present target price of 16p being multiplied upwards.

Ndovu Resources is owned by Aminex - finally movement on developing their existing gas, and hopefully their future gas finds as well.

http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/component/content/article/37-tanzania-top-news-story/13746-cautious-bunge-nod-for-new-power-plan.html


Cautious Bunge nod for new power plan

Saturday, 13 August 2011 22:05

By Tom Mosoba

..........In his speech, Minister Ngeleja said the firms monopoly of the sub-sector was over and a new company, Ndovu Resources, would be allowed to invest in gas infrastructure. MPs John Mnyika (Ubungo-Chadema), Ms Jenister Mhagama (Perhamio-CCM) and Mr Habib Mnyaa (Mkanyageni-CUF) said it was time the country addressed long term projects to avoid recurrent shortages..............


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You can see why Nyuni-2 is potentially so big in terms of recoverable gas, all the red and orange area is what its going for...........



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The news appears to be sinking in about Ndovu (Aminex) being able to build their own infrastructure for gas development.............

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-Shares-To-Buy-In-A-Brutal-foolcouk-1534578328.html?x=0&.v=1


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Certainly looking stronger.......



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Ndovu Resources is wholly owned by Aminex, for those who do not know.....more good news...........

http://www.dailynews.co.tz/bunge/?n=22830


............Mr Malima said that due to high power demand in the country, Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) in collaboration with other companies, were working on other natural gas sources, efforts which he said were meant to satisfy the power demand which was on the increase.

The companies which were working collaboratively with TPDC were Maurel and Prom, Ndovu Resources and BG Company. ..................


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http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article272751.ece

Total in Tanzania win

Tanzania has awarded oil and gas exploration rights for the northern side of Lake Tanganyika to French supermajor.

Aleya Begum 16 August 2011 11:39 GMT


The Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) said Total, one of nine bidders for the acreage, beat eight other applicants.

"Total has shown to be able to comply with the minimum work commitment and has superior technical as well as a financial capability over the other bidders to undertake exploration in the Lake Tanganyika north area," TPDC said.

Kosmos, Beach and Ophir were amongst the final four bidders. Meanwhile Aminex, ERHC, Fort Calgary Resources, Swala Energy and Lake Tanganyika also made initial applications.

TPDC has divided the Tanzanian side of Lake Tanganyika into two blocks, with the southern portion awarded to Australia's Beach Energy in 2008.

Brazils Petrobras will launch its first exploration foray off Tanzania next month as recent finds have fuelled interest among oil majors in the East African countrys largely unexplored offshore play.

Tanzania's government puts the country's proven natural gas reserves at 7.5 trillion cubic feet.

Three recent offshore gas discoveries by Perth-based Ophir Energy have galvanised exploration interest off Tanzania.

Tanzania has handed licences to at least 17 international companies for both offshore and onshore exploration plays.

Among other companies that hold exploration blocks in Tanzania are Oslo-listed Artumas Group, France's Maurel & Prom, Norway's Statoil, Shell and Aminex.

Published: 16 August 2011 11:39 GMT | Last updated: 16 August 2011 11:42 GMT

Stable and blue today, one of not many blue on the market.

O&G Price Monitor.

http://www.mediafire.com/?m2j17nh6m33gu8k

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More good news !


http://www.dailynews.co.tz/bunge/?n=23067

Wednesday August 24, 2011

From the Parliament

From DAILY NEWS Reporters in Dodoma

THE government has decided to construct and own by 100 per cent a major natural gas pipeline to connect Mnazi Bay, Songo Songo, Kiliwani/Nyuni, Mkuranga and a deep sea gas reserves discovered recently.

The Deputy Minister for Energy and Minerals, Mr Adam Malima, told legislators on Tuesday that upon completion the project would go a long way into realising government's resolve to speed up de.......................................

Aminex Aminex............the unloved stock.

When you take into account Davy Research's 1p per 23 BCF net to AEX, then it shows how lively things could get with Nyuni-2.

If you take top line figures :

Nyuni-2 GIP of 2500BCF (P10)

Recovery at 83% = 2,075 BCF recoverable.

AEX 65% share = 1348 BCF recoverable AEX share

1348 divided by 23 BCF (1p a share) = 58 pence upside to AEX price if Nyuni-2 is jackpot level.



If you take P50 level of 1500BCF GIP

Conservative 73% recoverable = 1095 BCF recoverable.

AEX 65% share = 711 BCF

711 divided by 23 BCF (1p a share) = 31 pence upside to AEX price if Nyuni-2 is mid level potential.


31 pence a share upside on moderate good news, 58 pence per share upside on jackpot news - and the share price now is just 6p for everything, including USA assets, Kiliwani and of course the onshore oil area to be drilled in Q4.

Low risk, due to present low market cap, but very significant potential upside, greater perhaps than any other small cap oil/gas share, and of course its main market listed so you can ISA it as well.



Davy Research


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Aminex (AEX ID)

Nyuni licence extension
14 April 2011

Caren Crowley Closing Price: 9c Rating: Outperform 30/06/09


FACTS: Aminex has received a six-month extension to the Nyuni licence offshore Tanzania. The extension will accommodate the drilling and completion of the Nyuni-2 well which is due to spud in the next month and a half. Aminex has 65% of the Nyuni licence which it also operates.

ANALYSIS: The Nyuni-2 well will test a Neocomian age gas prospect. Estimated prospective resources for gas initially in place are as much as 2,500 BCF (P10). Aminex considers that a 73-83% recovery factor is applicable to the gas in place. Nyuni-2 has potential for significant value creation. A measure of this potential is possible if one considers our 1p per share valuation of Aminex's share of the neighbouring Kiliwani North gas discovery. Aminex's share of the Kiliwani North Discovery is an estimated 23 BCF.

Terms for a new and expanded licence to replace the expiring Nyuni licence have been agreed and are expected to be formally concluded in due course. In its FY 2010 preliminary results, Aminex commented that the new licence agreement may include additional acreage.

DAVY VIEW: We believe that Aminex's primary attraction will be its drilling activity in Tanzania. In this context, the Nyuni licence extension and the imminent spudding of Nyuni-2 unwinds risk and is good news for investors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/chart-fears-make-gold-expensive-versus-oil.html


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http://www.fundweb.co.uk/1036679.article?cmpid=14001

Oil companies will not stay undervalued, says expert

24 August 2011 | By Henry Brennan
The undervaluation of the oil companies cannot continue for much longer, according to the Junior Oils Trust.

Angelos Damaskos

The recent weaknesses in the global markets, including the free-fall in August have contributed to the dislocation of share prices from the price of oil.

Companies are therefore undervalued, and this dislocation cannot continue for long, says Angelos Damaskos, the fund advisor for the Junior Oils Trust.

Having positioned the portfolio defensively since the beginning of the year, taking out significant cash positions alongside a 14% weighting to corporate bonds, the fund is moving back into equities to take advantage of what is being seen as a strong buying opportunity.

We have been selectively investing available cash reserves into equities since May and are finding many attractive companies with sound fundamentals are trading at extraordinarily cheap valuations.

Even within a slowing global economy, demand for energy will likely continue to grow, albeit at a reduced rate, as demonstrated by Chinas increasing rate of oil imports.

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There are no delays.

Well is presently at week 9 and expectation was 9 to 10 weeks. So no delays as yet.

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See post 25.

Its all going ahead now.........

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