.

very wise, but then you know i'm running a modest short here

The targets are still there....the main investors will still be there.....no rns...that's strange...they could have said that they had a few problems but they will be sorted out ....and will have to be....in the oil business ; nothing goes 100% right...that's the way it goes but in the event of a strike...boy they don't half make up for it!...I shall stay put on what I have....mainly in FOGL....with some BOR.....but it's a gamble...exciting times ahead....

i would certainly prefer fogl to bor, but for MrP to say that fogl will be unaffected if bor hit sand, is naive in the extreme ..... i made a bit of money from fogl which i banked a couple of weeks back, and am happy to be in rkh .... rkh will still get hit by backwash if bor hit sand, but are comparatively insulated, for obvious reasons

If you check the AIS now, the rig has moved 50 metres due east, no idea what they are up to.

prob trying to remember where they said this can of oil was meant to be hidden :-)

Apparently The Times is saying drill string broken. Cannot verify, perhaps someone with access to the Times can.

That would tie in with the "well stability" part of the rumours I reported earlier, if the well collapses in, the drill string will get broken, and it would tie in with reports of re-spud.
.

How far do you think the share price would fall if they had to re-spud ?

Could retest 50p, depends on how much hot money piles out and how much shorting goes on.

I'm not sure that 50p is realistic, but assuming you are right and assuming there are drilling problems, how good a trading opportunity that would be! Fair value + hype, expectation & momentum was worth somewhere around the 80p level, so once the problems are resolved, the sp should recover quickly. I am happy to hold the stock I have, but would certainly grab more if it went sub 60p before TD.

Could be that the rig was not properly anchored and the current (if there is one) is stronger than expected....dragging the rig....then drilling problems occur....just guessing....not the end of the world but a delay still the same....insurance cover might step in at no cost to the company.....

or perhaps HMG has asked them to hold off because of the situation with Argentina?

rf
The rig does not anchor! It uses HAIN positioning to maintain its position precisely in addition to some of the more basic 'taut wire' systems.
As a semi-submersible it is quite capable of holding its own in that environment.
However they do need to learn how to 'repel boarders' if the Argies decide to follow the actions of Greenpeace activists in the Liev Eiriksen's recent past!

Now back in BOR, finished my buying this morning.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/39909/

7th March


Borders & Southern Petroleum retains 'buy' rating at Merchant Securities after Darwin well spud

9:17 am by Sergei Balashov

Merchant Securities currently has a 'buy' recommendation and a 218.9p on Borders & Southern


Merchant Securities today repeated its ‘buy’ recommendation and ultra-bullish target price on Borders & Southern Petroleum (LON:BOR) following the start of its hotly anticipated drilling campaign in the Falklands.

The note from Merchant Securities was in response to the spudding of the Darwin well on January 31. This is the first ever deepwater well in the South Falkland Basin, while the second well drilled by Borders & Southern is targeting the Stebbing prospect.

This drill programme is being carried out further south of the area that Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) and Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) have been exploring.

In the report, Long repeated his ‘buy’ recommendation and a target price of 218.9 pence per share, representing an upside of over 200 percent to the current share price.

Long’s target price is based on and oil price of US$105 per barrel and a cash flow valuation of Darwin and Stebbing and takes into account the success chance estimates for each prospect.

Long said he likes the Darwin well the best from a risk perspective.

The second well is riskier, said Long, while noting that it is targeting 710 million barrels of recoverable oil compared to the P50 estimate – which means the oil has a 50 percent chance of being produced - of 300 million barrels in the Darwin prospect.

Long said the recoverable reserve estimate for Darwin could increase to 760 million barrels if the reservoir is full of oil from the gas-oil contact to the spill point.

“The wells being drilled by Borders & Southern are considered risky, even by the standards of exploration risk. We have incorporated our best estimate of the geological risks into our target price,” said Long.

The analyst also noted that the wells are targeting two structural traps, which are considered to present lower risk than stratigraphic traps when exploring in frontier basins.

The company is fully funded for the drilling campaign, which is estimated to cost US$150 million.

The results of the Darwin well are expected in mid-March, while the Stebbing results will likely be available in April.

Greece deal done, should be a strong blue day ahead, hopefully lots of buying of BOR and FOGL ahead.

Rig is still on location with DP turned on and one assumes, drilling ahead !! :)

Mirabaud comment :

.........Seven years after being awarded the acreage, Borders & Southern is on the cusp of finding out if the wait has been worthwhile. The Darwin exploration well spudded on 1 February and is targeting a potential 760 million barrels of oil – the likely 45 days of operations would see the drill bit reach the reservoir in early March, with an announcement expected by the middle of the month. As expected, Borders’ share price has ticked up over the past weeks and months in anticipation and, although mindful of the somewhat binary nature of pure exploration plays, we like the acreage and the management, and are confident that Borders has the technical understanding to unlock the potential of the basin. With the Darwin prospect alone worth £11/shr, we rate this stock as a BUY, with a price target of 150p............

I am going to take a guess that when the RNS comes out, they will say that there were problems which have been overcome and that the new time for expected results is mid April and that the current status is drilling ahead.

Based on my keen eye, which is very likely wrong :

I think they re-spudded on March 3rd, and 45 days from there gives mid April, which is why I suggest mid April for the results now.

The rig moved basically 60 metres SSW on 3rd March and has been rock solid with dynamic positioning on in its new location since then - indicating drilling is ongoing, meaning today would be day 7 of drilling since re-spud.

BOP is said to have delayed things and then an issue with something after that has led to where it is now. BOP looks accountable for at least 14 days of drill time lost in Feb - which will not be at the cost of BOR, it is the rig owner.

So the basic effect of everything is that, if rumours are true :

The drill is ongoing.
Darwin target same as it was before.
Teething problems with the rig and equipment overcome after its trip from Greenland.
Most of the delay down to BOP problems - so no cost to BOR.
Something went wrong which caused a re-spud to occur - possibly BOP related.

Results will be 4 weeks later than originally planned.


Its all conjecture and speculation until actual news comes - but thats my opinion on where things are.

Agreed....not bad guesswork.....so many of these companies drilling at the moment...BOR and AEX, RRL (RMP),GKP,PVR (LOGP),MXP.....any one of these could go ballistic at any time...

Agreed....not bad guesswork.....so many of these companies drilling at the moment...BOR and AEX, RRL (RMP),GKP,PVR (LOGP),MXP,BEH.....any one of these could go ballistic at any time...