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SEFTON RESOURCES INC - UNDERRATED OIL PRODUCER (SER)     

ptholden - 04 Aug 2006 19:53


???

Sefton Resources is an independent AIM quoted Oil and Gas company operating in the US. The companys principal current assets are two producing oilfields in California (Tapia Canyon Field and Eureka Canyon Field); it is also in the process of buying up prospective coal bed methane acreage (CBM) in Kansas.

Update from July 2007 AGM

Finance

I revealed in my annual statement that discussions were well advanced with
Banking institutions. The final phase of the agreement with a suitable bank
without complex and restrictive terms is now very near. This is weeks away
rather than months.

Oil

Oil production at Tapia has averaged 4,100 BO during the last five months. Which
is in line with last years levels. Once this finance is in place we will be able
to move ahead with drilling.

Drilling

We have stayed close to drilling contractors and we are ready to move forward
quickly when this finance is available.

Steam generation

The equipment is now in place at Tapia. Preparation time is needed to connect
the equipment and carry out the necessary trials required to get the main work
started. We anticipate this steaming will start in the next couple of months. If
successful a significant amount of oil resources will move into the Proven
Producing Reserves category.

Joint Ventures

Discussions continue with a number of interested parties to develop our Anderson
counties gas assets.

New finance team

A new CFO has been appointed with good knowledge and experience of the oil
industry. A new assistant to undertake all the daily needs has also been
appointed.


SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS:

Sefton has two oil fields, both producing. One is already profitable, and the other is breaking even. This should generate good cashflow for the company over the medium term.
Sefton owns 100% of both its major oil interests and is now demerging its non-controlled oil interests in order to concentrate on those where it has full control (Sefton has recently disposed of its Canadian assets for CDN450k cash).
Sefton is establishing a track record of using modern extraction technologies to improve the efficiency of its fields.

WEAKNESSES:

Sefton has suffered from a number of one-off factors. While these were out of the companys control the problems it has faced since 2002 have held back development and taken up management time. Investor disenchantment may account for the current low rating.

OPPORTUNITIES:

Sefton has acquired acreage for CBM (coal bed methane) in Kansas. CBM gas production is a thriving market and Sefton believes it has acquired the acreage at advantageous prices. While this is a longer term prospect it is an exciting one and could eventually eclipse the oil interests.
There are a number of other fields in the Ventura Basin and more generally in California as a whole that Sefton may look to target now its cash flows are stronger.
Eureka is a semi-exploration play which may contain further upside. This cannot yet be evaluated.
At this valuation the company may prove an attractive target for a larger player.

THREATS

Owing to its geographical location the company continues to be exposed to the threat of bush fires, canyon floods and geological interruption (earthquake risk). Sefton is taking steps to mitigate this risk by investing in Kansas and although Forest Basin area is susceptible to tornados - gas facilities have a minimal surface footprint.

LINKS:

Sefton Resources Web Site

Quarterly Update (Mar 08)

Operations Update Dated 14 January 2008

Hardman Report

Final Results - Year Ended 31 Dec 2006

2007 AGM & Update

In The News - Oil Barrel Dated 31 January 2007

Daily California Crude Oil Prices (MIDWAY SUNSET 13)

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SER&Si

SECRUOSER - 08 Jan 2008 12:27 - 1436 of 2350

Any comments on my spreadsheet?

driver - 08 Jan 2008 12:38 - 1437 of 2350

SECRUOSER
Nice spread sheet.

halifax - 08 Jan 2008 12:44 - 1438 of 2350

Yes very neat how about some 2008/9 projections?

SECRUOSER - 08 Jan 2008 12:46 - 1439 of 2350

That would be almost pure guesswork though. I'm confident my figures for 2007 are pretty accurate +/- any variance in fixed costs between the 2 halves.

halifax - 08 Jan 2008 12:49 - 1440 of 2350

Yes it would be encouraging if SER could come up with some projections/targets now that the show is back on the road.

SECRUOSER - 08 Jan 2008 13:06 - 1441 of 2350

Depending on what details SER give in their next update I may attempt a projection, but it will still be a very rough estimate as there are so many variables.

driver - 08 Jan 2008 16:31 - 1442 of 2350

Nice bit of buying today, the sp should have moved.

SECRUOSER - 08 Jan 2008 16:43 - 1443 of 2350

But bear in mind 2x150k 'buys' were actually a rollover. Otherwise, as you say, the sp would have moved. The online quotes did move up a bit today.

Online limits just before close : 50k@4.8p/50k@5.4p

driver - 08 Jan 2008 16:46 - 1444 of 2350

Not a bad rollover when you can buy cheaper that what you sold.

SECRUOSER - 10 Jan 2008 10:20 - 1445 of 2350

Nice buying volume so far for 10 in the morning!

driver - 10 Jan 2008 10:32 - 1446 of 2350

SECRUOSER
I agree a nice little bit of buying now lets have some news.

SECRUOSER - 11 Jan 2008 11:24 - 1447 of 2350

November production figures have been published and i'm glad to see they are nicely above the estimate in my spreadsheet.

capetown - 14 Jan 2008 08:40 - 1448 of 2350

SECRUOSER,
You should do the rns for sefton,you do a much better job!,
Good update,sp not up to much but its in the right direction.

SECRUOSER - 14 Jan 2008 08:56 - 1449 of 2350

Thanks Capetown :)

Good news on the flowrates and the drilling programme, and even signs of progress to come on CBM this year at last.

Very good to see that the settled rates were above the initial figures (78bpd), and now December figures are also well above my estimate.

I'm still not 100% clear whether steaming pilot has actually begun or not though, although they have taken the decision to use propane. JDM did say this
"The pilot steaming programme continues with the use of propane gas. " however.

But at this time I am more interested in the drilling programme. I do disagree somewhat with some posters view that only steaming will provide significant operational progress. Because the company has historically been around break-even, all increases in production pretty much go straight to the bottom line and significantly increase profitability. Do the sums and with another 3-4 wells even at 17bpd each suggests 250bpd and around $5m per annum free cash flow / profit after fixed and variable costs at current prices!

SECRUOSER - 16 Jan 2008 09:58 - 1450 of 2350

Good article on Sefton out today on front page of Oilbarrel.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html

capetown - 16 Jan 2008 10:05 - 1451 of 2350

SEC,
Can you paste it on here or give us a link.

SECRUOSER - 16 Jan 2008 10:06 - 1452 of 2350

Link to the article:

http://www.oilbarrel.com/email_index.html?page=/news/article.html?body=1&key=oilbarrel_en:1200448803&feed=oilbarrel_en

capetown - 16 Jan 2008 10:15 - 1453 of 2350

Its a good read and goes a long way to explain why the SP is where it is,SER have much to prove and as we all hope as holders 2008 is the year for them to increase production,and lets hope that using propane gas as a quicker route to power the steamer; works.

driver - 16 Jan 2008 10:18 - 1454 of 2350

SECRUOSER
A good article also like to see talk of the CBM at last.

The AIM firm has diversified into the gas business, having established a 43,000 acre footprint in the Forest City Basin in Kansas, thought to be highly prospective for unconventional gas resources. According to the analysts at Hardman, it looks like Sefton has acreage over the thickest sections of the Bevier and Riverton coal deposits. Progress in 2007 was described as cautious in response to the varied results achieved by other operators in the area. The wealth of geological knowledge gleaned by other operators will serve to smooth Seftons path towards optimising future production, said the analysts.

There are plans for a pilot drilling programme later this year but for now the real focus lies in California, where very real steps up in production, and thus cash flows, are on the books for 2008.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/email_index.html?page=/news/article.html?body=1&key=oilbarrel_en:1200448803&feed=oilbarrel_en

ptholden - 16 Jan 2008 10:22 - 1455 of 2350

Looks like 2008 is unlikely to produce any great increase in the SP. The reserves in California are well known and increasing production has had little effect thus far in nudging the SP on an upward path; seems it's all down to the Kansas CBM play and that is moving along at the pace of a very slow three legged snail.
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