This is another possible incredible winner, Could double all of a sudden, depending
on flows and future discoveries, better send off those (Wben) forms now as
this is an American Stock traded on Aim.

rf nicandros have promised an update about 2009 production.webcast starts at 4pm agm houston 4pm bst.i think mirzani 2 is massive hit the hint was in the rns today extending the licence untill 2017 this is a massive recovery stock.priced too go bust yet they would needed too have proven cash for licence extension for goegia government approval.remember we have cash coming from from our court award from over a year ago.this is a no

rf i expect this too open up high in the morning,hopefully mkt update regards mirzani 2.yanks will get 1st hit 2nite.good luck

rf wonder if we might get rns update today.regards agm still saying they are looking at a farm in,i just wonder if arbitration settlement of 20m from GAC could be pivotal as no fund raising mentioned.we wait and wonder.the 20m settlement from GAC at arbitration was last october no news regards this a 4-5xbagger with that settlement recieved plus mirzani 2 update anytime could be a multi-bagger.just a waiting game.good luck

rf get some enegi oil/ENEG massive news today mkt not got hold of the importance yet.PDIP subsidiary now trading again.

This ones making the effort on small volume at the mo, but am in profit.....

Sp increase might be due to production taking off...this company is a mixture of small reliable "nodding nelly's"....and some tremendous possible exploration assets....could be EK topping up !...

EK certainly needs to as he like many punters are losing a fortune on this one!!

good increase today ....

EK is crap at tipping winners, he's only good at shorting

This is the thread, 150 posts plus on this.

sorry recquired field i only saw the other 2 which were well out of date .todays hybridan report is out and news expected very soon

from hybridan wrap news imminent Be prepared for upcoming news from Frontera, the oil and gas exploration company operating in emerging markets. The company gave a drilling update from the Mirzaani 1 well on block 12 in the country of Georgia. Well logs indicate 146 meters of net sandstones with average porosity values of 20-25% located at seven different horizons between 1200 and 1490 meters. The company is now preparing for production testing to start imminently. A successful test should translate into increased production and cash flow for Frontera

FRR is yet another EK/t1ps dud, they should stick to shorts.

I think that this is starting to look undervalued...the next update could be a very good one....

i agree rf and news anyday . AWESOME RNS from FRONTERA!!! The highlights:
1) Almost 600 boepd of natural gas production ready to come on line in early 2010
2) They continue to think 1000 boepd is doable short term
3) The second Mirzaani well hit total depth this week. This well was drilled in the southeast section. Completion and testing in 2 weeks. This well showed what they thought it should including some oil shows.
4) The next Mirzanni well will start next month. This one is back in the new field extention (northwest). This is designed to appraise the discovery.
5) 4 wells plus ongoing workovers at Mtsare Khevi. Gas wells are now production adders, so they don't have to rely just on the oil layers
6) Reserve updates to come after the work is finished.
7) The 50 million in recoverable that they have been talking about at the two shallow fields has quietly been changed to "over 50 million"
8) Costs continue to decline. Their actual cash costs last month for ongoing operations seem to be around $6 million a quarter. That should continue to drop as they continue to work costs. Most of it continues to be SG&A.
9) Another $1.7 million from the stock sale hits the balance sheet in Q4. Oil sales in Q4 will be $2.4 million. So right there you can see the total cash usage for Q4 will be under $1.9 million
10) They have $9 million in MSTARS investements. This is not counted in short term cash, but it is real money even though some auctions have failed for MSTARS. The $9 million reflects a writedown from face value.
11) I can't find any reference to "Going Concern" anymore. Either I missed it, or the accountants are satisfied that the company has its cash situation handled for at least 12 months. This is very good news.

....So, there you go. Do the math on seeing 1000 boepd coming on line by early 2010 and the company should be cash flow positive. And they still have cash available from MSTARS and the warrants if they are exercised.
....And of course, the most important thing is that the company is heading straight toward a 50+ million reserve estimate in the fairly near future (not guaranteed of course, but derisked a lot). To me, that means a valuation for the company of over $1 billion....and that does not even count Tarabani or Basin C!!

i bought 37k today adding

My thoughts. Cash drain is bad, not as bad as on the surface, but it's bad. If they're able to ramp up production to 1k boepd that would definitely help.

What I see as a possibility that I haven't seen remarked on yet is that frte announced they'll be going for an updated reserves estimate for the shallows. If there's a decent upgrade in the estimates and probabilities, that would increase their options.

Wouldn't be surprised if they calculated how much cash they'd need to complete the current shallows projects and that's where the amount of the execs'/directors' shares purchased came from. The projects' parameters were probably determined in conjunction with what the reserves engineers said they'd need for data to perform a significant increase in the estimates.

Basically, my thinking is that they funded just enough so that they could do the work necessary to get an increased reserves number for the fields. Once they have the projects' work done, they'll turn turtle with expenses while the estimates are reworked.

Once the reserves estimates are increased along with the probability factor, they'll then be able to issue a secondary at a higher share price to fund the next phase of field development. As more wells are brought online, there'll be an eventual tipping point where they'll become cash flow positive and won't need to float additional secondaries.

That's what I think the plan is.

upside hear is massive 50-100p in about 60-90 days they are complaining about cash burn when they should not.

1) If you look at the Q3 earnings statement almost everything is non-cash. Everything after operations is non-cash (even interest expense which is currently paid with more convertible debt). Within operations, depreciation and asset writedowns are non-cash. So, the only cash costs are field operations and General and Administative. But, even General and Administrative is partially non-cash. They don't break it out, but they have been averaging $1.2 million per quarter in non-cash stock compensation (part of G&A). So their operational cash expenditures are field operations plus G&A minus non-stock compensation. So that is 6.1-1.2 or $4.9 million. Also, if you look at one of their posts on Motley Fool, I think they are double counting G&A expenses. They add in G&A to operational expenses, and the Q3 report shows operational losses after adding in G&A.

2) At 250 bpd and $80 oil, their revenues on average are $2.2 per quarter. So, that makes their true snapshot quarterly operational cash burn at $2.7 million

3) They are still reducing costs and increasing production (hopefully the new wells at Mirzaani add in soon). So, that $2.7 million may be closer to $2 millon in Q4.

4) They also still have some cash from the stock offering coming. It was $1.7 million if I remember correctly. That drops Q4 cash burn to around $300K (although the $1.7 million is a one-time injection).

5) So, Q4 operational burn is negligible. And it is definitely not the huge number that the Motley Fool crowd is talking about. I mean, almost zero is a far cry away from over $10 million! :)

6) The pipeline is supposed to be complete early Q1 2010. They indeed get a decent price for the natural gas. I forget exactly, but it is closer to $80 per BOE than $40 per BOE. So, early Q1 2010...say around 65 days from now, the company should be generating cash flow from operations just like the CEO has been saying.

7) Now look at the cash on hand. They have a little over $1 million in working capital. They also have $9 million in MSTARS. So, they have access to $10 million for capital expenditures over the next 65 days or so (before operating cash flow kicks in).

8) Also, did everybody forget about the warrants?? Warrants were issued as part of the "units" in the last financing. There are 46 million of them at 25 cents a share. That means if all of them are cashed in, the company gets an additional $11 million!!!! So, there is the stock issue, there is no need for a secondary right away.

9) Assuming the long term debt converts at the current higher conversion price (not necessarily a good assumption), the total outstanding after all of this is 220 million shares. Not bad considering 150 million was what most were using prior to the crash, and with 220 million outstanding the company is in much better fiscal and operational shape.

10) The talk of restructuring the long term debt does not necessarily mean a debt for equity swap. The company should have access to reserve based lending with a significant reserve boost. The company may be thinking of taking out straight debt and paying down some of the convertible debt as well as add to capital expenditures.

11) If they do a debt for equity swap, it really does not matter too much as long as it is significantly above the current stock price. I mean really, going from assuming 220 million outstanding to say 320 million outstanding shares does not mean much if the shackles finally come off and the company gets going on developing the best lease in the world (IMHO).

12) Seriously, reading what they say, it really looks like this company is going to have 50 million in proved reserves booked within the next 90 days (maybe more). That is what 3 wells on Mirzaani are for and Mtsare Khevi already has many more. Maybe it is not 50 million to start, but it will be proved reserves, not "estimate reserves" like we have been getting from them for years. The net present value of 50 million oil barrels is over $1 billion. That implies a much higher stock price. Also, I am no expert, but with a $1 billion asset, this company should be able to do some serious reserve-based lending

....I don't get the current stock price.

my buy today 01/12/2009 12:24:02 9.85 37,312 O 3,675.23
01/12/2009 10:55:44 9.85 8,283 O 815.88
01/12/2009 08:07:49 10.20 6,712 O 684.62