http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Haven't paniced here as Pro would have liked, sp seems to be holding up ok, maybe on the back of new drilling at Shaiken2 prospect......imo

Comment from Goldman Sachs today :

Gulf Keystone (GKP.L): Vast volume potential already in the price; Sell

Upgrades to reserves estimates at the companys Shaikan field in Kurdistan as the oil water contact is sought are a distinct possibility in our view. We believe, however, that the share price is reflecting a positive outcome to such a revision fairly aggressively. We give the company credit for over 1.6 bn net, risked barrels of reserves in Shaikan (prior to political risking for Kurdistan) on a net basis after accounting for the KRG back-in ahead of the P10 case assuming a 30% recovery rate. We believe that the potentially huge size of Shaikan could be of interest to strategic buyers (i.e. NOCs) and therefore see the potential for M&A involving the stock. Offsetting these potential attractions, however, is our more bearish view on Kurdistan relative to the market and relative to other regions as a result of the uncertainty surrounding exports and the licences granted by the KRG; we typically apply an additional 50% discount to the valuation of barrels in the region to account for this uncertainty.

Therefore despite the volumes we attribute to the stock and the M&A potential we include in our valuation, we continue to see more attractive upside in other stocks in our coverage universe. We also believe that Heritage offers a less expensive way in which to gain exposure to Kurdistan and therefore initiate coverage of Gulf Keystone with a Sell rating and a 12-month price target of 160p.

.

We will see.,.

Told myself take profits if dips into the 80's so have done so at 189p cynic will be pleased.,.

am stranded at h'row at the moment, so have not been that attentive ..... well done; go to the top of the class

Borrowed from the other side:

David Brent - 8 Nov'10 - 14:20 - 56163 of 56346


(CBS/AP) Leaders of Iraq's main political blocs met briefly Monday in the northern city of Irbil in a rare face-to-face gathering that failed to produce a new government and highlighted the many issues that still divide them.

All of the attendants emphasized that the opening session of what was described as a three-day meeting was a positive development for the gridlocked negotiating process, but that a new government was still far away.

After the roughly 90-minute, nationally televised meeting concluded, the political leaders agreed to meet again in Baghdad the following day. It was not immediately clear if the politicians would continue their talks privately late Monday in the Kurdish city of Irbil.

Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq, lobbied for the meeting to be held in Irbil, seat of the Kurdish government. He opened Monday's gathering with a call to Iraqi politicians to work together.

"It is a historic moment with deep meaning to meet together to discuss and agree on the country's future and to develop it in a way that meets the ambitions of the Iraqi people," he said.

The meeting was a who's who of the Iraqi political scene and the first time all the main political leaders have met since the March 7 election.

Even as the preliminary meetings took place, new violence highlighted the challenges that the country faces.
 
Police and hospital officials say a car bomb went off not far from one of Shiite Islam's holiest sites in the city of Najaf, killing seven people.

Officials say the blast went off about 500 yards from the shrine of Imam Ali, one of the most revered Shiite saints. Two Iranian pilgrims were among those killed.

The blast came hours after a car bombing in Karbala, another holy Shiite city south of Baghdad, also killed seven people.

Police and hospital officials said that six of the seven victims were Iranian pilgrims and that at least 35 others were wounded in the blast, including Iranian and Pakistani nationals.

The car bomb exploded at a parking lot in central Karbala that is used by pilgrims traveling between Iraq's holy sites. Such parking lots have often been targeted by Sunni militants unable to get close to the holy shrines due to beefed up security.

Among the crowd in the Irbil conference hall were current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the man who would like to take his job, Ayad Allawi.

Allawi heads the Sunni-backed Iraqiya coalition that won 91 seats in the parliament to al-Maliki's 89 seats. With neither side winning a majority in the 325-seat parliament, an eight-month period of intense political negotiations over the formation of a new government followed the March polls.

Al-Maliki described the meeting as a new push forward by the political blocs to reach an agreement.

"We need to open a new page and leave the past behind," he said.

But comments from many attendants indicated the difficulties involved in coming to an agreement between political parties that have in the past fought their battles on the streets and still view each other with deep suspicion.

Vice President Tareq al-Hashimi, a Sunni from the Iraqiya alliance, warned that negotiating committees who have been meeting for weeks before the Irbil summit had left many of the most contentious issues to the leaders to work out.

"Based on that, I do not think that the leaders will be able to solve these sticking issues because they need a lot of discussion and study," he said. "I do not know how the leaders, today and tomorrow, will be able to discuss this list of sensitive and strategic issues during this short period of time."

Hours before the political leaders met, seven pilgrims were killed in a car bomb blast in the holy Shiite city of Karbala, 50 miles (80 kilometers) south of the Iraqi capital.

Looks like the political news is beginning to have an effect,generally cinsidered to be holding back the SP?
cyril

There will not be peace in Iraq for at least another 20 years or more.

cyril, there is a problem with the licenses.

The political problem has been used as a smokescreen to cover up the problems with the licenses, and people may soon realise that the problem is with the licenses and it was all smoke and mirrors talking about the politics.

imo.

An early comment of last nights presentaion.
cyril

First comment
Management think shareprice has a long way to go"

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"Institutional inveators now v interested in gkp

Shaikan numbers so far v conservative"

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"We r focus on KRG. 2 discos. SH and smaller Bejiel.
SH 2-8bn - we think these are VERY conservative and want to tell you this today!!!!!"

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From Proactiveinv,
cyril

The biggest Proactive Investors forum to date saw more than 200 people crammed into a regular venue at the Chesterfield in central London to hear presentations from four very exciting growth companies.

Proceedings were kicked off by Toronto-listed gold prospector Lydian International (TSX: LYD), whose shares have enjoyed an almost four-fold appreciation since the company last addressed us back in March.

Finance director Roderick Corrie gave us an update on progress on the Amulsar project in Armenia, which has an inferred JORC resource of 1.4 million tonnes yet is still open in all directions.

Proactiveinvestors recommends
Jupiter Energy strikes oil in primary target of J-50 wellPetrel Resources settles Iraq issuesLeni Gas & Oil: seeing is believingHaving carried out 24,000 metres of drilling, the group has enjoyed a steady flow of news, which will continue to the end of the year.

Exploratory work is expected to define new targets while advancing existing targets outside the current resource shell.

Column leach metallurgical tests, meanwhile, has resulted in recoveries from 77-89 per cent, though bottle roll tests managed recoveries ranging from 89-97 per cent, Corrie revealed.

All of which suggests Amulsar will be a low cost operation when it goes into production ahead of a deadline of 2013.

Rob Blankstein of Vancouver-based Andover Ventures (TSX-V: AOX) was next to the podium, and he revealed how the company had negotiated a US$60 million US Environmental Protection fine down to less than US$1 million to take control of wonderfully named Trixie gold mine in Utah.

Trixie ran for only two months before it was effectively closed down by the EPA, which imposed the penalty because of alleged lead and arsenic pollution.

More interesting, however, is the potentially company transforming joint venture with Anglo-American to explore what could be a major copper/gold porphyry prospect, also in Utah.

In fact most of Andovers interests are in the Mormon state, although it also has the Sun Project in the Ambler Mining District of Alaska, which is a strong poly-metallic area.

A switch from North to South America came when Jeremy Martin of Horizonte Minerals (LON:HZM) addressed the forum.

His is an interesting proposition: nickel and gold play. Horizonte's assets are focused on the Carajas region in Brazil, a recognised mining area with superb infrastructure.

This gives a great basis for taking a mine from development into production, chief executive Martin said.

The Araguaia nickel project, which brought in Teck Resources as a major investor, has the potential to be a big value driver with the mines development being fast-tracked by the Canadian giant.

But the hidden gems are probably the two tie-ups it has with AngloGold Ashanti worth more than US$10 million.

The nights star attraction Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) was the last to present. Finance director Ewen Ainsworth, recognising just how far the price has come in the past year, says there is potential for an awful lot more excitement.

He suggested that the work by Dynamic Global Advisors on the Shaikan-1 well in the Iraqi part of Kurdistan, which suggests oil in place of 1.9-7.4 billion barrels, could prove conservative.

He said there is a good chance of hitting the P1 number of 13 billion barrels. Using printouts from GKPs computer simulation he showed how the Shaikan, Sheik Adi and Akri Bijeel fields could all be part of same oil body and full of oil.

If this is the case, then it raises the prospect that discovery is of the scale of Kirkuk a 60 billion barrel oil field find.

The questions were an eclectic mix which ranged from the potential royalty and tax take of the Kurdistan Regional Government to the legitimacy of the contracts signed with regional government.

On the latter, Ainsworth said the KRG will make up the difference between contracts we have signed and what is eventually agreed with Baghdad.

Quizzed on the possibility of taking a strategic partner, Ainsworth chose his words carefully: If this proves out on the upside case, then we dont have the human resources or finances (to take the Kurdistan assets into production) it is not something we would do.

A post from Zengas,
cyril

Because SH-3 is being drilled to target and test a potential circa 1 billion extra bls extra in place that couldn't be tested for 1st time around.

Those potential new/extra barrels are not in the money.

You may say it hasn't affected the share price, but remember on the expectations of drilling up 2-2.7 billion bls as top whack first time around, the share price was around 7-9p and wasn't reflected by the market until we recieved numbers/figures of OIP as the results were released.

We are in the same position now seeking potentially 60 billion bls+ at 190p.

When wells come in successfully, new data, numbers etc will start to reflect an increase in share price.

Sh-3 is still drilling/testing with a chance of perhaps that additional 1 billion bls that is not in the present known range figures we are working with on Shaikan.
S-A is still drilling (80% net) with a minimum 50m gross staurated interval identified.

No numbers have come from either of those 2 wells yet, neither have we seen any numbers for Akri-Bijeel-1

If those 2 wells currently well advanced come in successfully, then you will see another portion of that assumed 60 billion bl potential come within sight.

We need to be as patient now seeking 500p or 600p as we were when we were 9p striving to see the first 100p.

Glad i sold half my holding here a while back at 1.89 dropping slowly, maybe 160 not that far out for a buy back.,.

Commencement of Drilling Operations on the Shaikan-2 Appraisal Well
Gulf Keystone announces the commencement of drilling operations on its Shaikan-2 appraisal well, on 1st December, 2010. This is the first deep appraisal well to be drilled on the Company's substantial Shaikan oil discovery. Gulf Keystone has an effective 75 percent working interest in the Block and is partnered with the MOL subsidiary, Kalegran, which has 20 percent and Texas Keystone International has the remaining 5 percent.

The well design for Shaikan-2 has been modified to drill through the geopressured sections of the Triassic age rocks. This high pressure interval forced the cessation of drilling on Shaikan-1, when the well experienced the inflow of significant volumes of oil and gas from a section of the middle Triassic. The Shaikan-2 well is designed to drill through the Cretaceous, Jurassic and the Triassic, to a planned total depth in the Permian, depending on well results, of 5,000 meters. Drilling and testing is expected to take six months."

John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented:

"We are very excited to finally be spudding our first deep appraisal well on the Shaikan structure. In the success case, we hope for, as a minimum, a significant increase in our current P90 volume of 1.9 billion barrels of oil in place, thus narrowing the possible range of oil in place numbers. In the upside case, we would, of course, also hope for a further upward movement of our P10 volume which is currently independently estimated at 7.4 billion barrels of oil in place."

6 month for Drilling and testing results worth waiting for

Latest news
cyril

3 December 2010
Submission of Discovery Report on Bijell-1 exploration well
Akri-Bijeel block, Kurdistan Region of Iraq
MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc. hereby informs the capital market participants that, further to its recent notification on 8 November 2010 on the test results, it has submitted the Discovery Report on the Bijell-1 exploration well to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
As previously announced, 3,743 bbl/d 13 API oil and 618,826 scf/d (99 boe/d) gas was produced through 48/64 choke from the Bijell-1 well in an interval of 3,729 3,967 m during the joint cased hole test. This level might be significantly increased by application of artificial lifting systems. Based on the updated geological model of the accumulation, the calculated petroleum initially in place (PIIP) at P50 is 2,419 MMBOE in the Jurassic formations of the Bijell structure.
This Discovery Report will serve as a basis for the planning of the appraisal program of the Bijell structure.

Background:
On 8 November 2010, MOL announced the successful closing of the testing of the Bijell-1 well in the Akri-Bijeel Block.
MOL, via its 100% subsidiary, Kalegran Ltd., signed a Production Sharing Contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government for Akri-Bijeel exploration block in 2007. Kalegran is the operator of the block with 80% participating interest and Gulf Keystone Petroleum International Ltd. is its partner with 20%. share, both are subject to dilution by a Government held Third Party Participation of 20% and a
Government Interest of 20%.

Looking forward to tomorrows reaction to MOL's latest update.

Here's another piece of top research by rge renowned Zengas.
cyril

If you look back at the old GKP presenations (Feb 2009).

It shows 4 prospects on the Akri-Bijeel block.
Look closely and they cover about one third of the block.

Although further prospects are not shown, UBS after the June 2010 Pula, Croatian coverage on MOL said there were further smaller prospects but that they were secondary and only Aqra, Bijeel and Bechme would take preference immediately.

The 4 prospects over that 1/3rd of the Akri-Bijeel block are -

1) Large surface anticline 80 km2. Jurassic/Triassic.
2) Sub thrust lead 20 km2. Cretaceous/Jurassic/Triassic.
3) Large surface anticline 80 km2. Jurassic/Triassic.
4) Inverted dip/fault closure 21 km2 Cretaceous/Jurassic/Triassic.

Nos 1 and 3 are Beckme and Aqra and were upgraded at Pula by UBS to 3 billion bls each in June 2010. UBS gave this as a tentative estimate (could be more).

No 4 is Bijeel which was drilled and a discovery. This had a pre drill estimate of circa 700 mmbls. In June 2010 UBS expected the potential to be higher and gave it a figure of 1.95 billion bls.

Yesterday Mol, (and let's face it the figure was not rushed out after the drill result) gave an even higher figure of just over 2.4 billion bls for Bijeel and just for the Jurassic and mid case !

Considering that Bijeel is about 25% of the size of Bechme at 80km2 and Aqra at 80km2 and both have been tentativley estimated at 3 billion bls each, - potentially imo, then Bechme and Aqra could be more - perhaps 5 - 10 billion bls each considering that the Bijeel result of 2.4 billon is from the jurassic only and 21 km2.

Plus - there is also a similar 20 km2 lead (No 2 above) in size to Bijeel - perhaps a further 2.4 billion bl mid case ?

Overall from the 4 *known* prospects on Akri-Bijeel perhaps a combined 10 to 25 billion bls could be in place *mid case*.

With a high side of 18 - 22 billion potential for Shaikan (water contact etc, + triassic discoveries and potential from Permian) that's a range of 28 - 47 billion bls (Akri-Bijeel is based more on the mid and not the high side case - see the Bijeel 2.4 billion bl result = mid case).

We've had oil saturated in the Sheik-Adi drill over 5 weeks ago in ***50 mts gross of the FIRST cretaceous zone*** and the drill manager at the rig early on, quoted in an industry journal that he had no doubt that Sheik-Adi would be a significant discovery. It's estimated at half the size of Shaikan - perhaps a further 5 - 10 billion bls potential and if so could increase the targetted range to 33 - 57 billion bls from 3 blocks.

Berbahr is supposedly the biggest structure of all and to be drilled around the end of Q1? - perhaps a further 7 billion bls mid case - could take the overall range to 40 - 64 billion bls in place ? If you were to rely on the high side case throughout (full to spill etc) then 100 billion bls could be theoretically potentially possible - BUT it's GKP who throughout the presentations etc seem to have a lot of faith/presentation feed back that 60 billion bls across the blocks is a possibility.

It's when there is little news/periods of quiet/consolidation/griping that we all really need to take stock of the fantastic potential and see the bigger picture.

Mols announcement of 2.4 billion bls mid case is another building block but at the same time it sends out another absolutely powerful signal for the potential and all those bigger oil cos looking for opportunities.

We may have news on the potential of a further 1 billion bls in place in the shallow segment at Shaikan at basically any time - seems so small in the scheme of things - yet could be worth so much !

Sheik-Adi at the least has a zone saturated with oil and awaiting test.

BerBahr - the drillbit could be spinning in 3 months and a month or so later could give us a clue of what lies beneath. We want that in the ground drilling, BEFORE any potential early bids could start to filter through and that is what we distinctly DON'T WANT.

Mol will now crack on as operator on the A/Bijeel block on appraisal/exploration and sort suitable rigs there.

We have our own intensive drill campaign underway and by the end of the next quarter - all FOUR blocks will be under exploration - discoveries on two, a greater chance of a discovey on a third (Sheik-Adi) and at some point in Q2 some inkling of news emerging from Berbahr (not to mention Bechme).

All fully funded and production should be ramping up.

This is the time to see the bigger picture and not to focus on the share price which like before imo will take care of itself. With oil breaking $90/b and estimates for $100/b 2011/12 the economics will look amazingly attractive.

We've had Murphy and Marathon join the scene in Kurdistan. Political noises are getting more and more favouarble. I fear that a bid could materialise after Q1 and potentially likely by mid year as the 4 blocks will all have thrown up enough of their secrets to force someone to move before the company gets too expensive.

Let's face it, if GKP by the end of Q2 has significant discoveries under it's belt, any buyer could come in and bid a fairly decent price before we achieve full value - that then also leaves any new buyer with further exploration/appraisal potential which can be funded from the vast income that the likes of Shaikan/Akri-Bijeel alone could throw off. Sooner or later someone will make a move and it will imo be long before we get 60 billion bls fully proved in place.

GKP confirm MOL's update,would have been nice to had a little on how drills are progressing?
cyril