barclay
- 27 Jun 2006 14:50
Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.
I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.
Another good reason to hold on to this share.
mnamreh
- 06 Jan 2011 10:00
- 147 of 286
.
TopAnalyst
- 06 Jan 2011 10:02
- 148 of 286
cynic, if you think its SO IMPORTANT, you go count my posts, because I am NOT your post counting monkey.
As for my opinion on such utter tripe, the fact I have posted a lot of RESEARCH and not that many people have responded is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT.
As I said, get a life!
ptholden
- 06 Jan 2011 10:03
- 149 of 286
You're such a bully Cynic.
Oops, SP going backwards (for now).
ptholden
- 06 Jan 2011 10:06
- 150 of 286
Perhaps the Market rather than the so called BB experts agree with my own prognosis - who knows.
cynic
- 06 Jan 2011 10:13
- 151 of 286
it was a very easy and quick exercise
TA's first post was number 65 on 22/12/10 ..... since then, there have been 85 posts of which TA contributed 52
so then, 3 reasonable possible conclusions can be drawn .....
TA is a Prophet in his own Land and knows what he is talking about
or
TA doth protest too much, with the result that other members here treat his findings, rightly or wrongly, with a scepticism born of past badly burnt appendages
or
TA is actually spouting a load of tosh
cynic
- 06 Jan 2011 10:22
- 153 of 286
i agree marky and hence my post 144 ..... in this instance i have still to be convinced
ptholden
- 06 Jan 2011 10:28
- 154 of 286
Actually, all joking aside, all I want to know is if they have found less oil than expected. The rather muted SP reaction would suggest that may be true.
hangon
- 06 Jan 2011 11:29
- 155 of 286
I hold a few NOP and it strikes me the value of the oil in the UK is somewhat marginal. However, it will generate cash - and that means this small OilCo continues in politically stable areas in Europe with greater chances of striking the big-time.
If you follow the Co reports there is considerable oil in their portfolio, the trouble is delay, oil-rigs, local opposition and so on.
Add in that money only flows somewhat later than hoped and the sp of small OilCos is unlikely to be very high until their "reserves" translate into "cash-flow" which this development looks likely....however small against the likes of BP's horizon find.
+Other sites of Oil in S.England are already being pumped and are profitable, requiring very little effort after the initial costs, from 20 years ago. Today, NOP's Markwell-wood site looks to confirm the Co. knows its onions - and for most investors that is quite a relief.
((For, many "exploration" Co's on AIM are operating in other Lands so the punter is easily mis-led by promises of "Gold in them thar Hills" - when all it is a PR machine inflating a few pictures of not very much. (All IMHO).)).
If you're buying NOP, this level is probably well worthwhile, but it could dip as in all things some bought lower. The NAV is said to be at least double - - - - but what do I know?
cynic
- 06 Jan 2011 12:02
- 156 of 286
sounds that EO, XEL, PMO and similar are much better investments
TopAnalyst
- 06 Jan 2011 21:28
- 157 of 286
TopAnalyst
- 06 Jan 2011 21:31
- 158 of 286
Also worth a read (you can hardly call me a ramper when I post
all the research I find, not just the bullish stuff!).
Looks like some trouble brewing down Italy way. 7 Mayors have signed a petition to try and stop NOP drilling offshore Adriatic!
[Google translation]
FASANO STILL SAYS NO TO OIL DRILLING
Fasano - Fasano reiterates his opposition to drilling off its coast, but not only the entire region. It does so by adhering to the mobilization, as Practiced by Several Mayors Puglia Directly Concerned with this issue. It does so by adhering to the mobilization, as practiced by several mayors Puglia directly concerned with this issue. Last November the Northern Petroleum Said To Have submitted a new application to Obtain government concessions to enable it to carry out drilling in the Adriatic. Last November the Northern Petroleum said to have submitted a new application to obtain government concessions to enable it to carry out drilling in the Adriatic. This has sparked controversy again I know That the mayor of Ostuni Domenico Tanzarella invited around the table Apulian Several administrators to address the common Possibility That the oil companies are Granted Permits previously denied by a ruling of the Tar Lecce, in fact, placet suspended from the positive the Ministry of Environment. This has again sparked controversy so that the mayor of Ostuni Domenico Tanzarella invited around the table several Apulian administrators to address the common possibility that oil companies are granted the permissions previously denied by a ruling of the Tar Lecce, in fact, placet suspended the positive from the Ministry of Environment.
Now that the Northern Petroleum will try again here take the new defense plan. The mayor of Ostuni Tanz - says the mayor of Fasano Lello Di Bari - convened a first meeting in recent days. He Cooperation Sought from all the coastal Municipalities from Polignano a Mare up to Otranto. He sought cooperation from all the coastal municipalities from Polignano a Mare up to Otranto. We responded in seven. We have responded in seven. Apart from Ostuni and Fasano, in fact , there are Monopoli, Polignano, Carovigno, Otranto and Brindisi to Which Is Added to the Province of Brindisi. Ostuni and Fasano well, in fact, there are Monopoli, Polignano, Carovigno, Otranto and Brindisi to which is added to the Province of Brindisi. We sat around a table to draft a joint document That Could Have more value Than That individual actions before and it HAD HAD little effect. We sat around a table to draft a joint document that could have more value than individual actions and previous who had had little effect. Each Municipality has Identified ITS Subsequently engineers who met and put down to document Mayors Have That then we signed. Every municipality has identified its engineers who subsequently met and put down a document that then we have mayors signed. I can only express my deep satisfaction Because, as I'm arguing for a long time, we can make a more Uniting Determined to continue Our reasons. I can only express my deep satisfaction because, as I'm arguing for a long time, uniting we can carried out in a more determined our reasons. In Our document Also Announced strong legal action if this attempt to pollute Our sea going forward. In our document also announced strong legal action if this attempt to pollute our sea going forward.
http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gofasano.it%2Fnotizie%2Fcronaca%2Ffasano-dice-ancora-no-alle-trivellazioni-petrolifere9274.html&sl=it&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8
TopAnalyst
- 07 Jan 2011 08:15
- 159 of 286
So, how much oil?
Someone(maxk?) posted on ADVFN a few days ago that they expected 10% recoverable from the oilfield. If this is correct then the oilfield is thought to be 50m barrels, because NOP are saying they think they can get 5m barrels out. Prior to drilling NOP has an estimate of 33.5m barrels, up to a potential 60m barrels. Therefore the field is 16.5m barrels higher than the initial estimate, only 10m short of the maximum thought to be there. This could change but hopefully for the better.
Also, Havant will be drilled later in the year.
NOP had 22m as anounced just before XMas, so getting the rig should be quick and as its so easy to get up and running the results could be in before month end.
"However, the oil firm Northern Petroleum is now to carry out further tests after determining up to 5 million barrels of exploitable crude oil lies under the surface. At today's prices, the deposits could fetch a total of around 290m (or $450m)."
"Northern is also set to begin drilling at its Havant site in Hampshire later this year in search of oil."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8243813/Tiny-village-in-West-Sussex-sitting-on-black-goldmine-worth-half-a-billion-dollars.html
TopAnalyst
- 07 Jan 2011 08:44
- 160 of 286
The Sun is saying it might be 35m barrels. So that is still above the initial estimate, although not up to the max they thought as possible.
"Markwells is thought to contain "only" 35million barrels - ten times fewer than some North Sea discoveries. But it is huge for an onshore find."
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/3334903/Majestic-Wine-boss-slams-weather-moans.html
Horndean is producing around 190bpd from 4 wells, has been for years. Take the same from MW1 and its worth $5,894,750($85 a barrel) or 3,815,082 per annum, to next year maybe $8,668,750($125 a barrel) or 5,610,415 per annum.
Revenues for the 6 months to 30 June 2010 were a shade over 7m, so this should add a good 30% to revenues. 5 wells instead of the 4 at Horndean would likely add 50% to annual revenues at next years oil prices.
ptholden
- 07 Jan 2011 08:58
- 161 of 286
So after all the huffing and puffing, less oil was found than expected?
cynic
- 07 Jan 2011 10:17
- 162 of 286
all oil was onshore at least once since created - almost certainly anyway
TopAnalyst
- 07 Jan 2011 11:13
- 163 of 286
ptholden, you can't read either then LOL!!!!
Read it SLOWLY
They expected to find 33.5m barrels, but they found between 35m and 50m barrels.
Now do you get it?
TopAnalyst
- 07 Jan 2011 11:13
- 164 of 286
The MW1 oil could add 50% to revenues in what is a profitable company. Tullow oil well in Guyana would add 35% t0 65% onto current revenues(drilling Q1), so there is easily visible doubling of revenues and profit. This brings us back to the bid speculation from the news the other day. NOP is still cheap based on the visible growth. Add the Italian drilling for 1Bn+ (up to 8Bn with all the prospects?) barrels and a pre-emptive strike by BP, Shell(thus getting 100% of Italy) or similar could be on the cards soon.
TopAnalyst
- 07 Jan 2011 11:16
- 165 of 286
A quick summary of info and my view of how things will go for NOP.
Current SP should be 196p according to Goldman Sachs, this is at $85 a barrel. The consensus expected 2011 average for oil is around 25% higher, which would lead to an increased valuation on NOP to 235p
t1ps.com have a 'buy up to 145p with a 350p target' recommendation
NOP is a 'Tip for 2011' from The Times
3 brokers are listed on Digital Look, all have 'strong buy' for NOP
Matrix analysts have a 170p target
http://gecr.co.uk/ have a 314p target
Results from MW1 should be in within a week or two, if they hit 35m to 60m barrels and a producer it will be seen as big news for NOP.
Tullow are drilling Guyana in Q1. The oilfield is expected to be similar to the nearby Jubilee field which is running at 58,000 bpd rising soon to 120,000 bpd. If Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5% to 65% increase on its production today.
Based upon the above the NOP SP should easily pass 2 by the end of Q1.
Also by the end of Q1 Shell Italia MUST make a decision on drilling the Thrust and Fold belt offshore Italy, targeting 1Bn+ barrels of oil. Goldman Sachs have pencilled in Q3 2011 for the drilling.
Based on Shell Italia going ahead with drilling in Q3 2011, the SP should rise rapidly on the announcement and continue rising as the date nears for the spudding in Q3.
Goldman Sachs have valued a successful oil strike on a producer of 1Bn barrels as being worth 500% on their valuation of 196p, taking it to 945p. Allowing for the 25% higher oil price the valuation would increase to 1181p
So by the time Shell Italia are drilling the Thrust and Fold belt in Q3, the NOP SP should be speculatively bought up to at least 4 per share, leaving room for a double or treble for those already in, if they hit 1Bn+ barrels of producible oil as expected.