http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

Yes, Given $ strength, the percentage fall has not been much.

I think if the price falls more than 5% for a sales contract, the contract can collapse - penalty will be paid but it is not god for POG.

SELL POG at all costs... dump

Nomura note today:
"Petropavlovsk (Reduce, 240p)
End of the line at Pioneer? POX hub delivery in focus. Downgrading to Reduce Petropavlovsk’s operating base has been undergoing rapid change over the past few years. The lack of exploration success in the non-refractory ore category has led to the future of the operations to now be based around the new POX hub (located at its Pokrovskiy mine). The POX hub is expected to commission in 1Q 2014 and accounts for 60% of our two-year forward NPV estimate.
POX (pressure oxidization) is a complex gold processing method with sensitive autoclaves that can be difficult to operate. Although a proven technology, we have concerns around the potential for capex overruns and delays to commissioning as has occurred at Polymetal’s Amursk facility. This risk is enhanced in terms of share price impact owing to POG’s need to maintain cash flow with its high net debt position We understand that Petropavlovsk, alongside Outotec and leading outside consultants, has done everything to mitigate this risk; however, we think that 2013 is likely to provide limited potential for material outperformance for the shares prior to the delivery of this critical project for the group (in absence of a gold price rally).
We had previously been more positive on Petropavlovsk’s potential, owing both to our expectations of higher gold prices, and from the potential to reshape the investment case via additional exploration success (particularly in terms of non-refractory gold at Pioneer). The most recent update was disappointing in our view as no material nonrefractory resource has been added. Although there still remains exploration upside, there is a lower likelihood of higher grades being available at Pioneer through 2014 with the high rates of stripping impinging on ore availability. This could have important knockon implications for Petropavlovsk’s earnings and cash flows through 2014. We view consensus earnings as too high and on the following page we lay out why we can see another downgrade of expectations at POG.
Negatives
• 2013 consensus EPS could be too high owing to stockpile adjustments – As our numbers are below consensus even after allowing for our lower gold price forecast, we would expect that market cash cost estimates might be too low; until full company guidance is given. Pioneer is expected to process a large portion of lower grade stockpiles through 2013, and this stockpile adjustment may not be as yet flowing through, in estimates (POG does not break this number out in its financials).
• High grade non-refractory material availability is declining – the transition to refractory material has less insulation than previously because of the lack of exploration results.
• POX hub to be delivered over 2013 – Prior to tangible news flow on the POX hub, there is limited potential for Petropavlovsk to outperform, in our view.
• Signal from the hedge is a negative – In our view, there is rationale for Petropavlovsk to hedge its exposure to the gold price owing to its highly levered financial position and high capex spend through 2013. However, in advance of the updated financials, it is difficult to determine whether this has been done as a prudent cash management technique or is perhaps required because of more modest prospects. In general, investors tend to prefer gold companies with full unhedged exposure and, at the least, there is less relative upside to 2013 numbers should gold rally.
• High debt, high cost position – In a falling gold price environment POG stands out with its net debt position and ranks second in cash costs behind African Barrick Gold in the European space.
• Russian exposure has enhanced perceptions risk when gold equities in general offer more opportunities and during a falling gold price environment."

Proposed approximately US$238 million investment in IRC Limited
by new shareholders

Petropavlovsk PLC ("Petropavlovsk" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that in connection with the conditional approximately US$238 million investment in IRC Limited by General Nice Development Limited and Minmetals Cheerglory Limited (the "Transaction"), announced by the Company on 18 February 2013, the ordinary resolution put to shareholders at today's General Meeting was duly passed on a show of hands.

Full details of the proxy votes received from shareholders prior to the meeting for the resolution are set out below and will also be made available on the Company's website www.petropavlovsk.net.

It will probably be 200p tomorrow looking at the chart.

Westhouse Securities Buy 254.20 254.20 480.00 480.00 Retains

time to buy?

i would be inclined to say yes, except that markets are getting o'due for a sharp correction.

i was also surprised to read that iron ore prices are at a low level (can't remember how low), but i would expect that position to change ....... it is also not unlikely that gold has reached its nadir and is also due for a rebound

a "hmm!" answer

cynic as you probably know POG has hedged nearly 50% of their 2013 production so are in a strong position whether or not the price of gold falls or rises.

in that case, you are effectively betting on a rise in ore prices .....POG really have had a very bad run over the last couple of years, much of it self-inflicted

As I posted earlier (#1477), POG is not in the iron ore market any more as that particular section of their operation was spun off into a company called IRC Ltd listed in Hong Kong. As far as I am aware POG is now purely a gold producer.

just shows how behind the curve on POG i am!

POG now approaching the lows last seen toward the end of 2008.

GF - any chance of a chart in the header?

I think it has leg up to 300.
Any ideas. I plan to average down.

In my post #1480, a great deal seems to depend on whether the POX hub works, on time & on budget (FT guys were discussing this today). I also need to average down, but am assuming that may/june is going to be a rough time for equities, I think I may just wait a while yet. Not sure that the correlation between POG sp & the price of gold is relevant either, as they have hedged a certain amount of next year's production, though it makes sense to hedge imo, as the appetite for riskier investments should see the price of gold drop over the next 12 months.

Goldman Sachs forecast FTSE at 7200 in next 12 months.

When did they say this?

Canaccord Genuity Buy 235.85 235.50 800.00 590.00 Reiterates

POG is a SELL, SELL SELL