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BowLeven Undervalued on NAV basis? / Oversold ??? (BLVN)     

soul traders - 27 Mar 2006 18:07

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=BLVN&S



RNS today gives BowLeven's interim results and highlights the following:

RNS Number:2495ABowLeven Plc23 March 2006 BowLeven Plc23 March 2006

BowLeven Plc ('BowLeven' or 'the Company')
Interim results for the six months to 31 December 2005
Bow Leven, the Cameroon-focused oil & gas company listed on AIM, today announces its interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2005.

Highlights include:
* Cash of #62 million
* 3D seismic survey underway on blocks MLHP 5 and MLHP 6 of Etinde permit
* Reserves of 60.3 mmboe remain in place
* Four well drilling programme being prepared for early 2007
* Loss for the period #0.7 million
* Concentration on original strategic plan including implementation of Gas To Electricity ('GTE') Plant in Cameroon


At today's offer price of 195p, the company is valued at 57.7 million. However, they claim to have audited Resources consisting of 60.3 mmboe of Reserves and 58.2 mmboe of Contingent Resources. There is supposed to be a copy of the auditors' report on the website but I can't find it (UPDATE - have now requested this via e-mail) (NEW UPDATE - I never got a reply but the auditors' report can be found in the AIM admission document).

BLVN also has 60 million in cash, which ought to more than see it through its next lot of drilling.

This, however, is scheduled for 2007, which may be one reason why the SP is held back. But to me it still looks cheap. It is almost certainly oversold after the announcement of bad news in the latter half of last year.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

grevis2 - 28 Feb 2012 17:13 - 148 of 403

Only if it's glued to the floor!

grevis2 - 28 Feb 2012 17:21 - 149 of 403

LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Turkmenistan-focused Dragon Oil will not make a bid for Bowleven, Dragon said, leaving the way open for others interested in Bowleven's exploration assets offshore Cameroon.

"The board of Dragon Oil (Xetra: 877789 - news) announces that it is no longer exploring an offer for all of the issued and to be issued share capital of Bowleven," Dragon said in a short statement on Tuesday.

Bowleven shares, which have risen from 74 pence the day before Dragon said it was considering a takeover to 134 pence at the close on Monday, fell sharply back to trade at 89 pence after the announcement.

Earlier on Tuesday, they had touched a six-month high, buoyed by hopes that another party may be joining the bidding fray

Cash-rich, Dubai-headquartered Dragon, which is 52 percent-owned by Dubai's Emirates National Oil Company and dual-listed in Dublin, said earlier this month that it was in the early stages of making a bid for Bowleven

In a separate statement on Tuesday, Bowleven said that it had held no detailed talks with Dragon, nor provided due diligence. (Reporting by Rosalba O'Brien, Editing by Paul Sandle)

mitzy - 28 Feb 2012 17:33 - 150 of 403

Thats blown it.

ptholden - 28 Feb 2012 17:38 - 151 of 403

Even without another bidder (and there might well be) BLVN still have the potential for a rapid re-rating once the drilling re-commences in Q2. For those who might be clinging to the bandwagon, there's plenty of upside here.

Balerboy - 28 Feb 2012 18:36 - 152 of 403

Better tie me on as I'm fed upwith hanging on.,.

grevis2 - 28 Feb 2012 19:59 - 153 of 403

From Reuters earlier today.:

STOCKS NEWS EUROPE-Bowleven jumps on takeover hopes

Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:02pm GMT

Shares in Bowleven climb 8 percent to touch a six month high on rumours that another party in addition to Dragon Oil, which said earlier in February it is considering making an offer for the company, could be interested in approaching the Cameroon-focused oil explorer.

Westhouse Securities analyst Andrew Matharu believes it's likely that other companies are weighing up approaches for Bowleven.

"I think it's wide open. I think there's a lot of potential," he says, noting that under British takeover rules Dragon has until mid-March to make an offer for Bowleven, presenting other potential bidders with a deadline.

"What that has done is, in terms of a marker in the sand, it's enabled other companies to get their slide rules out and to consider an offer for the company as well."

Matharu also notes the strong interest being shown in another British explorer, Cove Energy, which has put itself up for sale and received two offers.

"We've seen Cove has been well bid in the market and the fact still remains that at the moment given where valuations are, it is cheaper to buy reserves on the stock market than it is to try and drill for them.

I think that any company that has got proven reserves on AIM in proven basin plays, that does not have the capital, or access to the capital, to finance the development of those reserves in a capital efficient manner are vulnerable to cash rich companies looking to build their reserve base."

Bowleven declined to comment on the rumours.

Reuters messaging rm://sarah.young.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

hlyeo98 - 28 Feb 2012 20:09 - 154 of 403

Bowleven been dumped

HARRYCAT - 28 Feb 2012 20:12 - 155 of 403

That's an insightful comment hlyeo! How long did it take you to come up with that? ;o)

grevis2 - 28 Feb 2012 22:52 - 156 of 403

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23537b94-6239-11e1-872e-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1ni5RUQ7n

Courtesy of the FT.

Bowleven wilts as Dragon Oil turns away

By Michael Kavanagh

Shares in Bowleven fell by a quarter on Tuesday after Dragon Oil, which is controlled by Dubai’s state-owned Emirates National Oil Company, said it was dropping plans to bid for the Cameroon-focused oil explorer.

Dragon’s initial approach a fortnight ago for Edinburgh-based Bowleven pushed its shares up 46p, or 62 per cent, to 120p, valuing the company’s equity at £355m.


But that left Bowleven shares trading well below the high of 414p hit in January last year.

The shares gained as much as 14 per cent to hit a high of 153p on Tuesday morning amid rumours of a possible counterbidder emerging to challenge Dragon’s informal approach.

But a statement by Dragon confirming that it was no longer in talks saw Bowleven’s shares fall to close 24 per cent down on the day at 102p.

Dragon declined to comment on its reasons for withdrawing its interest, while Bowleven declined to say how far discussions had gone or any pricing levels suggested by the suitor.

Shares in Bowleven had been trading around the 80p mark since last November, amid growing concerns over its ability to fund a drilling campaign in west Africa without outside help.

The company holds five onshore and offshore blocks in Cameroon and said last month it was in discussions to raise debt finance to fund drilling aimed at delivering “homegrown production and cash flow in 2015”.

Bowleven, led by chief executive Kevin Hart, held cash of $160m at the end of last year after the disposal of assets in Gabon and a $124m fundraising at 103p a share in October. It has insisted that it can continue to pursue development plans for its Cameroon assets without the need for a takeover.

Production from Dragon’s fields in the Caspian Sea rose by a third in 2011, helping to add nearly $400m to its year-end net cash balance of $1.52bn.

A week ago, it restated its ambitions to acquire sizeable assets beyond its interests off the shores of Turkmenistan. Dragon insisted it would maintain a “disciplined approach” in pitching any firm offer for Bowleven.

grevis2 - 29 Feb 2012 08:18 - 157 of 403

Cenkos this morning

BOWLEVEN - Yesterday's announcement that Dragon Oil were no longer considering an offer for Bowleven was followed by a comment from Bowleven that no detailed discussions had been held and no due diligence carried out. Bowleven presented their investment case at the analyst's day in late January, they believe that a central fair value case can be made for Block 7 offshore Cameroon to be valued at 330pps, and that the Block 5 assets where they experienced difficulties in drilling were also very attractive now that the downhole conditions were understood. The company now needs to deliver the MOU for a gas sales agreement for Block 7 and ideally find a partner who will also see the value that can be liberated from the assets. The shares do look very cheap but have gained a reputation as somewhat "unlucky". The current price bears little relation to the underlying value and they are still a BUY.

cynic - 29 Feb 2012 08:35 - 158 of 403

certainly i think 95/97 should be the bottom of the hole, though it may dip below this as more hot money flees .... very much a prsonal choice asto whether one wants to try to trade this on an upswing

hlyeo98 - 29 Feb 2012 08:38 - 159 of 403

Cenkos is often wrong in its recommendations.

required field - 29 Feb 2012 08:39 - 160 of 403

I was in as long as there was the bid factor...now ?....I'll just hold on to my remaining loss making shares but more news elsewhere....

oddsocks - 29 Feb 2012 08:40 - 161 of 403

hopefully all the nervous sells out now those who can see through the mist will be rewarded in time when the dust settles

Stan - 29 Feb 2012 10:34 - 162 of 403

I haven't followed this one but what was the price when the offer news hit the SP?

machoman - 29 Feb 2012 10:43 - 163 of 403

just look at dates of posible offer and the chart and you will find it out

research have to be done by yourself

I will help you with a chart

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=BLVN&S

Stan - 29 Feb 2012 11:26 - 164 of 403

Looks like 75p from that chart, thanks MM.

HARRYCAT - 29 Feb 2012 11:47 - 165 of 403

UBS note:
"Bowleven held a Capital Markets Event in January. The company discussed in detail its plans for the development of its oil and gas resources offshore Cameroon now that the government has discussed designating the gas as feedstock for a fertiliser plant. However we still see risks to full scale development. If the appraisal/exploration risk on the 150Mbbl IF oil asset is too great and Bowleven/Vitol decide not to drill in the near term, this would heighten development, and particularly financing risks in our view. While our 113p NAV assumes some risk around the decision to drill IF-2, as well as the resultant appraisal and development success, in the event that drilling on IF is pushed back to a later stage due to uncertainty over the geological viability, our NAV would reduce towards 76p. We think that Dragon may have initially been looking at Bowleven due to the wide spread between Bowleven’s share price and the company’s illustrative valuation. We think that if a bid had proceeded, bid-ask spread could have been an issue, which might also deter other companies from approaching.
We move to setting our price target at a 10% discount to risked NAV (from 30% previously), which we increase to 113p from 97p. Despite not seeing Bowleven as a takeout candidate, we think there is a level of heightened sensitivity to M&A among the E&P sector which may contribute to inflated valuations for some time."

hlyeo98 - 29 Feb 2012 16:14 - 166 of 403

So it's likely to drop from this level at 96p.

halifax - 29 Feb 2012 16:21 - 167 of 403

false alarms always= sp falls
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