http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

6 month for Drilling and testing results worth waiting for

Latest news
cyril

3 December 2010
Submission of Discovery Report on Bijell-1 exploration well
Akri-Bijeel block, Kurdistan Region of Iraq
MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc. hereby informs the capital market participants that, further to its recent notification on 8 November 2010 on the test results, it has submitted the Discovery Report on the Bijell-1 exploration well to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
As previously announced, 3,743 bbl/d 13 API oil and 618,826 scf/d (99 boe/d) gas was produced through 48/64 choke from the Bijell-1 well in an interval of 3,729 3,967 m during the joint cased hole test. This level might be significantly increased by application of artificial lifting systems. Based on the updated geological model of the accumulation, the calculated petroleum initially in place (PIIP) at P50 is 2,419 MMBOE in the Jurassic formations of the Bijell structure.
This Discovery Report will serve as a basis for the planning of the appraisal program of the Bijell structure.

Background:
On 8 November 2010, MOL announced the successful closing of the testing of the Bijell-1 well in the Akri-Bijeel Block.
MOL, via its 100% subsidiary, Kalegran Ltd., signed a Production Sharing Contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government for Akri-Bijeel exploration block in 2007. Kalegran is the operator of the block with 80% participating interest and Gulf Keystone Petroleum International Ltd. is its partner with 20%. share, both are subject to dilution by a Government held Third Party Participation of 20% and a
Government Interest of 20%.

Looking forward to tomorrows reaction to MOL's latest update.

Here's another piece of top research by rge renowned Zengas.
cyril

If you look back at the old GKP presenations (Feb 2009).

It shows 4 prospects on the Akri-Bijeel block.
Look closely and they cover about one third of the block.

Although further prospects are not shown, UBS after the June 2010 Pula, Croatian coverage on MOL said there were further smaller prospects but that they were secondary and only Aqra, Bijeel and Bechme would take preference immediately.

The 4 prospects over that 1/3rd of the Akri-Bijeel block are -

1) Large surface anticline 80 km2. Jurassic/Triassic.
2) Sub thrust lead 20 km2. Cretaceous/Jurassic/Triassic.
3) Large surface anticline 80 km2. Jurassic/Triassic.
4) Inverted dip/fault closure 21 km2 Cretaceous/Jurassic/Triassic.

Nos 1 and 3 are Beckme and Aqra and were upgraded at Pula by UBS to 3 billion bls each in June 2010. UBS gave this as a tentative estimate (could be more).

No 4 is Bijeel which was drilled and a discovery. This had a pre drill estimate of circa 700 mmbls. In June 2010 UBS expected the potential to be higher and gave it a figure of 1.95 billion bls.

Yesterday Mol, (and let's face it the figure was not rushed out after the drill result) gave an even higher figure of just over 2.4 billion bls for Bijeel and just for the Jurassic and mid case !

Considering that Bijeel is about 25% of the size of Bechme at 80km2 and Aqra at 80km2 and both have been tentativley estimated at 3 billion bls each, - potentially imo, then Bechme and Aqra could be more - perhaps 5 - 10 billion bls each considering that the Bijeel result of 2.4 billon is from the jurassic only and 21 km2.

Plus - there is also a similar 20 km2 lead (No 2 above) in size to Bijeel - perhaps a further 2.4 billion bl mid case ?

Overall from the 4 *known* prospects on Akri-Bijeel perhaps a combined 10 to 25 billion bls could be in place *mid case*.

With a high side of 18 - 22 billion potential for Shaikan (water contact etc, + triassic discoveries and potential from Permian) that's a range of 28 - 47 billion bls (Akri-Bijeel is based more on the mid and not the high side case - see the Bijeel 2.4 billion bl result = mid case).

We've had oil saturated in the Sheik-Adi drill over 5 weeks ago in ***50 mts gross of the FIRST cretaceous zone*** and the drill manager at the rig early on, quoted in an industry journal that he had no doubt that Sheik-Adi would be a significant discovery. It's estimated at half the size of Shaikan - perhaps a further 5 - 10 billion bls potential and if so could increase the targetted range to 33 - 57 billion bls from 3 blocks.

Berbahr is supposedly the biggest structure of all and to be drilled around the end of Q1? - perhaps a further 7 billion bls mid case - could take the overall range to 40 - 64 billion bls in place ? If you were to rely on the high side case throughout (full to spill etc) then 100 billion bls could be theoretically potentially possible - BUT it's GKP who throughout the presentations etc seem to have a lot of faith/presentation feed back that 60 billion bls across the blocks is a possibility.

It's when there is little news/periods of quiet/consolidation/griping that we all really need to take stock of the fantastic potential and see the bigger picture.

Mols announcement of 2.4 billion bls mid case is another building block but at the same time it sends out another absolutely powerful signal for the potential and all those bigger oil cos looking for opportunities.

We may have news on the potential of a further 1 billion bls in place in the shallow segment at Shaikan at basically any time - seems so small in the scheme of things - yet could be worth so much !

Sheik-Adi at the least has a zone saturated with oil and awaiting test.

BerBahr - the drillbit could be spinning in 3 months and a month or so later could give us a clue of what lies beneath. We want that in the ground drilling, BEFORE any potential early bids could start to filter through and that is what we distinctly DON'T WANT.

Mol will now crack on as operator on the A/Bijeel block on appraisal/exploration and sort suitable rigs there.

We have our own intensive drill campaign underway and by the end of the next quarter - all FOUR blocks will be under exploration - discoveries on two, a greater chance of a discovey on a third (Sheik-Adi) and at some point in Q2 some inkling of news emerging from Berbahr (not to mention Bechme).

All fully funded and production should be ramping up.

This is the time to see the bigger picture and not to focus on the share price which like before imo will take care of itself. With oil breaking $90/b and estimates for $100/b 2011/12 the economics will look amazingly attractive.

We've had Murphy and Marathon join the scene in Kurdistan. Political noises are getting more and more favouarble. I fear that a bid could materialise after Q1 and potentially likely by mid year as the 4 blocks will all have thrown up enough of their secrets to force someone to move before the company gets too expensive.

Let's face it, if GKP by the end of Q2 has significant discoveries under it's belt, any buyer could come in and bid a fairly decent price before we achieve full value - that then also leaves any new buyer with further exploration/appraisal potential which can be funded from the vast income that the likes of Shaikan/Akri-Bijeel alone could throw off. Sooner or later someone will make a move and it will imo be long before we get 60 billion bls fully proved in place.

GKP confirm MOL's update,would have been nice to had a little on how drills are progressing?
cyril

Another post by dalesmen.
cyril

There will come a day when the SP will rocket. Slowly all the ducks are being lined up. The signing of the 19 points is just one very important step in this amazing story.

If you watch L2 - not something I tend to do- but even I can see that over the last month that the SP has been severely range bound. LIBC does appear to have been buying. Remove this break on the SP , combine it with news that the KRG companies are now recognised as legitimate, add in 1 billion recoverable barrels from SH3, ally this to news that the combined production of SH1 and SH3 will go directly for export rather than being sold into the local market, add some news that Sheik Adi has encountered further oil shows, news from SH2 that it too has encountered oil in the cretacious, and news that there is a definite date for the first Ber Bahr drill, followed by a smattering of TO rumours and the SP will rocket.

After weighing up all of the above I personally decided that not only 'could I not be out of these over the weekend' but that I needed to increase my holding as the shares are now IMHO almost totally de-risked!

When this blows it will go with a bang. I don't really care if this event is this side of Christmas, nearer to New Year or in 2011.

As you probably know I try to make my investment decisions based on a detailed appraisal of the fundamentals. However sometimes instinct can be factored into my buying decisions and I certainly had a strong gut feeling that, to coin a phrase the, 'train was about to leave the station'

Last Friday I acted on this gut feeling by buying more. I increased my holding between 15-20% last week.

IMHO you may be right, the market could well be cautious and slow in its acceptance that the contract impediment has now been overcome. I do however believe that the market will in time catch up with this view and the SP will respond accordingly. When? Who knows! - But I am fully committed, relaxed and willing and able to wait.

The list of possible negatives connected with GKP are all but gone.

I have waited this far, I can wait further but when it does blow I will have no need to chase the SP.

Kind regards

http://www.thenational.ae/events/categories/gastro/irag-gives-go-ahead-to-kurdish-oil-contracts

Not reconising the above so i'll paste article.


Iraq gives go-ahead to Kurdish oil contracts
Tamsin Carlisle and Hadeel al Sayegh

Last Updated: Dec 26, 2010


Iraq's new central government plans to recognise contracts for oil and gas production in Iraqi Kurdistan, a step towards healing an extended rift that has delayed development of some of the world's largest oilfields.

Several UAE companies stand to benefit if the dispute is resolved.

Abdul Luaiby, two days into his new job as the Iraqi oil minister, said yesterday that there was an agreement between Baghdad and the regional government of Kurdistan.

"We have already signed an agreement with Kurdistan," Mr Luaiby said in Cairo yesterday on the sidelines of a Christmas Day meeting of the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Under the deal, Baghdad would recognise several dozen contracts that the Kurds have unilaterally signed with more than a score of foreign oil and gas producers in their semi-autonomous territory in north-eastern Iraq.

The deal would also contain a revenue-sharing provision allowing foreign companies to be paid for oil and gas they pump for export.

"Yes, we will recognise them," Mr Luaiby said of the Kurdish contracts, which his predecessor, Dr Hussain al Shahristani, had declared illegal.

His statements followed five days of intensive talks last week when Nouri al Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, led a delegation from Baghdad to meet Kurdish politicians on their home turf to hammer out a deal for an Iraqi coalition government.

The country has been without a government since its national election in March, and winning the support of the Kurds has proved the essential last step for Mr al Maliki to form a cabinet.

"The mood is much more positive now," said Hussein Baker, a Kurd from Erbil, the regional capital.



"The Kurds are very excited with the recent developments. The expectation is that foreign companies will now be able to export their oil and gas and the economy will boom."

The promise of an end to the increasingly acrimonious dispute, which had dragged on for nearly four years, should be good news not only for the Kurds and their foreign partners, but also for Iraq as a whole. One of the major casualties of the disagreement was a draft Iraqi federal oil law, badly needed to lend legal weight to the fistful of long-term service contracts that Dr al Shahristani signed with international oil groups over the past 18 months to develop large Iraqi oilfields outside Kurdistan.

Some of those fields, including a cluster of supergiants in the country's southeastern province of Basra, are among the largest in the world. But as long as the federal oil law remained stalled in parliament over the Kurdish dispute, the international oil companies that had signed the 20-year agreements to pump crude from the southern fields could not be sure that their contracts would not be overturned.



In Kurdistan, meanwhile, exports into Turkey of about 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude by pipeline and tanker trucks were halted more than a year ago because Dr al Shahristani and Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdish resources minister, could not agree on a mechanism for paying the foreign oil producers.

The companies directly affected were Norway's DNO International, Turkey's Genel Enerji, and the Chinese state-owned Sinopec.

DNO, which is 30 per cent owned by the UAE's RAK Petroleum, cut back its output from the Tawke field in Kurdistan to 4,000 bpd last month because it lacked an export licence. Between June and September last year, it exported as much as 50,000 bpd from Tawke through a link to Iraq's northbound export pipeline.

Last year Genel Energy and Sinopec pumped about 40,000 bpd of crude from Kurdistan's Taq Taq oilfield for export, moving the oil by lorry. In October, Genel agreed to sell part of its stakes in Taq Taq and two other Kurdish fields to South Korea's UI Energy. The Turkish company has meanwhile pursued a project to build a refinery in Kurdistan for Taq Taq oil.

DNO and Genel have estimated that oil exports from the two fields could restart at a combined 150,000 bpd. Kurdish officials see this rising to 250,000 bpd within a year, equivalent to 10 per cent of Iraq's total current oil output. Ne

And the 2nd page.

Iraq gives go-ahead to Kurdish oil contracts
Tamsin Carlisle and Hadeel al Sayegh

Last Updated: Dec 26, 2010


Waiting in the wings is Pearl Petroleum, a consortium led by the Sharjah partners Crescent Petroleum and Dana Gas, with smaller stakes held by the Austrian petroleum group OMV and Hungary's MOL.

Pearl has developed gas and condensate production from the Khor Mor gasfield. It supplies the gas free of charge to local power plants and sells the condensate, a type of light oil, on the Kurdish domestic market. The group also has rights to develop a second gasfield, Chemchemal, and hopes to export some of its future output to Europe.

While Dr al Shahristani, who became Mr Hawrami's nemesis, is to remain in Mr al Maliki's cabinet in the newly created position of deputy prime minister for energy, there are signs that Mr Luaiby will be allowed to take the lead in further discussions with the Kurds.

Mr al Luaiby is seen as an "interlocutor" in northern Iraq, said Samuel Ciszuk, the senior Middle East energy analyst with IHS Global Insight.

"Allowing the new oil minister to handle much of the relationship might allow for some of the conflicts to be defused, as the personal issues between [Dr al Shahristani and Mr Hawrami] would be removed," he said.



tcarlisle@thenational.ae


The news we've all been waiting for.
cyril





h

All been denied now by the Iraqi government, indeed Shahristani really put it all down and pee'd all over the bonfire.


http://www.azzaman.com/english/index.asp?fname=news\2010-12-27\kurd.htm


Iraqi government wont let Kurds export their own oil

By Karim Zair

Azzaman, December 27, 2010

The new government says there will be no change in its stand vis-vis the export of oil produced in areas under Kurdish control.

Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs Hussein Shahristani said the government would forestall any attempt by Iraq Kurds to export oil on their own.

Shahristani assumed his new post as part of tough negotiating that took more than nine months for the new government to come to light.

In his former position as oil minister, he was known to be among the most vociferous Iraqi government officials critical Kurdish moves for economic independence, particularly running their own affairs as far as the natural resources of their region are concerned.

The Kurds have their own regional government which includes a ministry for natural resources and oil.

But Shahristani said: The Kurdish government cannot export oil produced from fields situated in the regions territory without central government approval.

The constitution has stressed that the countrys oil riches are the property of all Iraqis and the export of oil will have to be for the benefit of the central government (in Baghdad).

Shahristani is Iraqs most powerful energy official. In his new position as deputy prime minister, he has authority over all energy affairs (oil and electricity) in the country and supervises oil and electricity ministries.

More bad news then, RNS out.

Legal claim to up to 30% of the companies Kurdistan assets..... whoops. thats not going to go down well with the market is it ??

Certainlu puts cat amongst the pigeons. Yes the market will respond in a negative way,to soon to know whats what,only time will teel as to whether it has any chance of
sucess?
cyril

Trouble is it sparks panic.

How many other companies are there out there who might suddenly put in a claim for 10% or 20%......

The fact that nobody knew this was going to happen means its possible there are other skeletons in the cupboards........

When panic occurs, that's the time to buy. Bought some at 154p.

and i'm quite pleased i only have a 50% "norm", but not particularly tempted to buy more

I'm glad you're not my agent...50%..phew !...

whatever that may mean ...... anyway, as i note i bought at 140, i'm still comfortably in the money

At a loss...but I think we have seen this sort of problem before and GKP have come through it.....

fact that UK courts rejected the case. US will follow.

i agree, but just read why the UK courts rejected the case presented .... it wasn't because there was no prima facie case to answer!

This is too cheap... bought more at 160p just now.

TIDMGKP

RNS Number : 9144Y

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd

05 January 2011

Not for release, publication or distribution in or into the United States or jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom and Bermuda where to do so would constitute a contravention of the relevant laws of such jurisdiction.

05 January 2011

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")

Kurdistan Operational Update:

Completion of Drilling and Testing Operations on the Shaikan-3 Shallow Appraisal Well

Gulf Keystone announces the completion of drilling and testing operations on its Shaikan-3 shallow appraisal well. This well was designed to drill and test the Cretaceous intervals in the immediate vicinity of the Shaikan-1 discovery well. The Company has a 75 percent working interest in the Block and is partnered with the MOL subsidiary, Kalegran, and Texas Keystone which have the remaining 20 and 5 percent working interests respectively.

The well drilled the entire Cretaceous interval and on into the Jurassic Sargelu formation. A total of two open hole and two cased hole flow tests were conducted in the Cretaceous. As a result of these tests, log evaluations and recovered fluid samples, the Company's current P50 to P10 estimate of Garagu oil in place volumes is 220 million to 2.2 billion barrels. These Garagu resources are in the lower portion of the Cretaceous (between 1060m and 1157m). The Shaikan partner group will formulate a development plan for these resources.

The large spread between P50 and P10 volumes is due to the uncertainty with respect to the exact nature of the Cretaceous down dip, on the flanks of the Shaikan structure. If the Cretaceous is oil bearing near the flanks, then the P10 volumes become more likely and it is possible that the oil will also be less viscous and of higher API gravity.

In the mean time, due to the different characteristics of the Cretaceous oil, the Shaikan-3 well has been completed as a second Jurassic producer from the Sargelu formation and will flow into the same test facilities as the Shaikan-1 well.

John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented "The Cretaceous resources evaluated by the Shaikan-3 well are massive by any standard. They represent a significant oil resource for Kurdistan and Iraq. It is a further demonstration of the huge hydrocarbon potential of the are

Notice there is no "Pleased to announce......"

...........