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BABCOCK Looks Cheap (BAB)     

goldfinger - 19 Mar 2009 12:53


Brokers certainly like the stock and trading on a forward P/E of just over 9 going into 2010, far too cheap imho.

Babcock International Group PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arden Partners
12-03-09 BUY 119.00 41.10 13.50 143.00 49.40 15.50

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
10-03-09 HOLD 118.36 40.40 13.50 140.73 45.24 15.50

Singer Capital Markets Ltd
09-03-09 BUY 120.10 40.50 14.00 144.40 46.90 15.50

Teathers
04-03-09 BUY 120.51 40.33 13.40 146.94 46.96 15.00

ABN AMRO
10-02-09 HOLD 122.90 39.77 12.50 138.90 44.42 15.00

Numis Securities Ltd
21-01-09 ADD 119.80 41.10 13.00 145.40 48.70 14.10

NCB Stockbrokers Ltd
08-01-09 ACCU 41.25 12.45 46.74 14.37

2009 2010
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 119.56 40.68 13.37 144.16 47.29 15.37

1 Month Change 0.19 0.09 0.02 0.01 0.45 0.03
3 Month Change 0.49 -0.04 0.09 -0.07 -0.46 0.19


GROWTH
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

Norm. EPS 36.83% 44.23% 16.25%
DPS 34.59% 49.38% 14.96%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

EBITDA 135.90m 172.74m 194.28m

EBIT 105.00m 142.06m 162.84m

Dividend Yield 1.97% 2.94% 3.38%

Dividend Cover 3.15x 3.04x 3.08x

PER 16.13x 11.18x 9.62x

PEG 0.44f 0.25f 0.59f

Net Asset Value PS -80.79p 168.28p 185.86p

HARRYCAT - 29 Nov 2010 16:48 - 15 of 65

BAB goes ex-divi 15th Dec '10, paying 5.2p

HARRYCAT - 02 Dec 2010 08:28 - 16 of 65

StockMarketWire.com
Babcock initiated with buy recommendation at RBS, target price 620p.

HARRYCAT - 21 Dec 2010 12:29 - 17 of 65

StockMarketWire.com
Engineering support services provider Babcock International Group PLC will release its interim management statement on Tuesday, 25th January.

HARRYCAT - 25 Jan 2011 09:51 - 18 of 65

StockMarketWire.com
Engineering support services group Babcock International continues to trade in line with its expectations.

The group's order book remains stable at around 12bn reflecting the constant flow of new contracts, rebids and contract extensions from the pipeline into the order book.

As anticipated, the pipeline of bids at PQQ or ITT stage has increased and now stands at 6bn and the board remains confident in the outlook for this financial year and thereafter.

It adds: "As part of the Government's ongoing discussions with its key suppliers, we continue to be involved in positive dialogue with our key customers at the Ministry of Defence and with the Cabinet Office.

"We expect discussions with the Cabinet Office to be concluded by the end of the financial year.

"We anticipate the outcome of the comprehensive spending review and strategic defence and security review will lead to significant new outsourcing opportunities.

"We believe our scale, expertise and track record of delivering financial and operational efficiencies will place us in a strong position."

HARRYCAT - 22 Feb 2011 08:18 - 19 of 65

Wakefield Waste PFI Project - Teaming Agreement
Babcock International announces it has entered into a teaming agreement with Shanks Waste Management Ltd in respect of the Wakefield Waste Management PFI project. Shanks brings strong and proven waste management experience to the team which will now seek to achieve financial close. The agreement provides a mechanism for Shanks to acquire Babcock's waste business following financial close, which is expected later this year.

Joanne Roney, Chief Executive of Wakefield Metropolitan District Council comments

"We are very pleased that Babcock and Shanks have entered into this agreement and I look forward to working with the team to move the project to financial close".

HARRYCAT - 24 Feb 2011 15:28 - 20 of 65

Babcock International Group PLC will release its Pre-close Trading Statement on Tuesday 29th March 2011, ahead of reporting full year results for the year ending 31st March 2011 on Tuesday 17th May 2011.

goldfinger - 02 Mar 2011 15:27 - 21 of 65

Just gone long again.

goldfinger - 02 Mar 2011 15:29 - 22 of 65

Chart looks tasty.........

babcock%201.JPG

goldfinger - 03 Mar 2011 11:33 - 23 of 65

02-Mar-11 Babcock International Group BAB Panmure Gordon Buy 558.00p 750.00p 750p SP target

goldfinger - 03 Mar 2011 13:29 - 24 of 65

Currently trading on a P/E of around 11 where as in the past the historical P/E is around 17 to 18 so we have a fair way to go and the stock is way undervalued imo.

Heres Brokers SP targets going back to December......

Date Broker name New Price Old price target New price target Broker change

02-Mar-11 Panmure Gordon Buy 558.00p 750.00p - Reiteration
11-Feb-11 Seymour Pierce Buy 571.00p 670.00p - Reiteration
02-Feb-11 Arden Partners Buy 567.00p - - Reiteration
25-Jan-11 Seymour Pierce Buy 579.00p 670.00p - Reiteration
21-Jan-11 Panmure Gordon Buy 560.00p 750.00p - Reiteration
11-Jan-11 Arden Partners Buy 590.00p - - Reiteration
10-Jan-11 Panmure Gordon Buy 570.50p 750.00p - Reiteration
02-Dec-10 Royal Bank of Scotland Buy 550.50p - 620.00p New Coverage

Some pretty impressive targets their.

HARRYCAT - 03 Mar 2011 13:33 - 25 of 65

I have plenty of these from the 518p level and similar broker price targets have been around for quite a while. Clearing the 600p level and staying there seems to be a real struggle. With hindsight I should have traded in & out. I thought the VT takeover would have pumped up the valuation, but little seems to have happened.

HARRYCAT - 11 Mar 2011 09:13 - 26 of 65

.

HARRYCAT - 29 Mar 2011 08:22 - 27 of 65

StockMarketWire.com
Support services group Babcock International said the trading environment as a whole has been stable, with no significant changes to market conditions.

The Group's financial performance for the 2010/11 full year remains consistent with our expectations at the time of our Interim Management Statement on 25th January 2011. Across divisions, all major support contracts continue to perform well and the group continues to benefit from the long-term nature of contracts.

VT Integration - The structural reorganisation following the acquisition has been completed speedily and efficiently and the business units are focused on delivering the significant operational benefits of bringing the two complementary businesses together. The delivery of merger benefits is on track and Babcock said it is confident of achieving 50m (pre-tax) in total and as scheduled.

Cash generation throughout the year has been strong and has been used to pay down debt. As a result, net debt is expected to be below 750m at end-March 2011 and the resulting net debt to ebitda ratio to be significantly below the 2.8 times reported at the end of the first half.

Since the completion of the VT acquisition in July, the order book for the combined Group has been stable at around 12bn, reflecting a steady inflow of new contracts, rebids and contract extensions from the bid pipeline.

The pipeline of bids at PQQ or ITT stage currently stands at c 7bn, increasing from 6bn at the time of the IMS in January 2011. Since the award of the five year, 200m British Forces Germany facilities management contract announced in February, Babcock has also been down-selected by the MoD as the sole industry bidder for the 10 year, c 300m Maritime Equipment Transformation (MET) programme.

Babcock said it remains confident that the current economic climate will drive both public and private sector organisations to increase their focus on outsourcing as they seek to reduce operational costs and drive efficiencies. Outlook

In both the UK and overseas the Group is well placed in markets that offer significant long-term growth opportunities.

With good progress being made to achieve the synergy savings identified as part of the VT acquisition and improving contract margins in the Support Services and International divisions, Group operating margins have further scope to improve from the 31st March 2010 level.

Babcock will announce full year results on 17th May 2011.

goldfinger - 29 Mar 2011 09:29 - 28 of 65

Solid statement.

goldfinger - 03 May 2011 09:26 - 29 of 65

Looks to me like this ones hit a top for the time being and I can see it falling back as it has done historicaly 150 points to around the 520p/500p support.

Must say had a good run out of it, But TA pointing to weakness now.

goldfinger - 03 May 2011 10:04 - 30 of 65

Looking like a Strong SHORT here at BAB Babcock............

BAB%20SHORT.JPG

goldfinger - 03 May 2011 13:03 - 31 of 65

Interesting to note as we have gotten nearer resistance on the chart above the amount of stock on loan , ie a proxy for shorting has increased. Obviously other chartists are taking short posiions here in anticipation off a fall in the SP.......


Chart.aspx

gibby - 03 May 2011 19:16 - 32 of 65

definite short for sure imo - everything including 29/3/11 statement above & other items points to it strongly

gibby - 03 May 2011 19:20 - 33 of 65

btw the reason babcock sole bidder for the 10 year c 300m Maritime Equipment Transformation (MET) programme i am told is that no one else is interested due to various complexities, has to go through the long drawn out european directive ojeu proces etc etc and potential tiny margin - MET driving costs down apparently requiring according to rumour fixed price / fixed deliverables rather than the much more profitable time & materials option - just passing on info

goldfinger - 03 May 2011 20:11 - 34 of 65

Cheers Gibby, much appreciated.
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