Senior SNR looks well set to go on from here looking at the chart. Lovely recent breakout:



Longer term chart shows resistance at around 95p and then 105p which would be medium term SP targets.

Recent article on SNR......


Healthy outlook for Senior
Created: 15 July 2011 Written by: Lee Wild

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Companies/ByEvent/TradingNews/Analysis/article/20110715/4fdd3ce2-aedc-11e0-8a4b-00144f2af8e8/Healthy-outlook-for-Senior.jsp

What's new:
Profit to beat forecasts
Strengthening aerospace market
Rise in heavy truck production
Senior had analysts rushing to upgrade earnings forecasts after announcing that both first half and full-year profit will beat expectations. Growing demand for the company's truck parts in North America and Europe, and increased production of the C130J military transport aircraft and Boeing 787 were behind the improvement. Despite "slight weakness" in the European car market, group sales are just ahead of estimates, meaning better operating margins for both the automotive and aerospace units when half-year results are published on 1 August.
It's aerospace that's the key driver, accounting for 59 per cent of 2010's sales. Between them, Boeing and Airbus expect to deliver 40 per cent more aircraft in 2014 than they did last year and Senior makes precision machined components for both of them. What's more, a strong Paris Air Show that saw aircraft manufacturers build order books to almost seven years is great news for the company. Even the market for short-haul and business jets is improving.
Net debt at the end of the first half will creep above the year-end figure of 63.7m, following the acquisition of American group Damar in March for 15.3m. But cash generation is healthy and Damar, which does 88 per cent of its work for Boeing, looks like a wise purchase.
Brewin Dolphin says
Buy. We have said before that Senior is a core holding in the industrials sector and we feel that market conditions in the truck and business jet operations should continue to improve as 2011 progresses. After that, the medium term is underpinned by the well trailed aerospace programme increases. We have upgraded forecasts for 2011's pre-tax profit by 7 per cent to 74.1m and by 5 per cent for 2012 to 81.1m, giving EPS of 13p and 14.5p, respectively. A positive stance on Senior has served us well since the share price nadir of 30p in 2009, but we see further gains in coming years.
Royal Bank of Scotland says
Buy. We retain our positive stance towards the group, both in the short and the long term, with opportunities for growth across both of Senior's divisions. This, we believe, is driven by a number of end markets seeing positive momentum - but is also due to Senior's strong track record of consistent execution and its ability to deliver. We believe this will remain a key driver of the story going forward, along with an increasingly positive outlook for the commercial aerospace segment. Senior offers good short-term momentum and an attractive long-term story. Expect a drop in year-end net debt to 49m, falling to 19.6m in 2012.

IC VIEW:
GoodValue
Senior has ticked all the right boxes. Aerospace order visibility is particularly encouraging, but the group is also well positioned in the recovering truck market and is exposed to a much-anticipated revival in business jets sector. The shares trade on 14 times full-year forecast earnings - a deserved premium to the sector, given the company's history of strong cash generation and growth prospects. And, with plenty of fire-power for acquisitions, the shares - at 186p - still represent long-term good value.

2011 First Half Results

The results for the six-month period to 30 June 2011 will be announced on Monday 1 August 2011.

Gone long of SNR solid fundies and chart looks like its about to break up, fingers crossed.



Forward P/E of just over 11 to 2013 very cheap......

Senior PLC

FORECASTS 2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arden Partners
13-09-12 BUY 89.50 16.76 4.56 100.00 18.42 5.00
Peel Hunt
11-09-12 BUY 90.48 16.45 4.30 101.52 18.33 4.70
N+1 Brewin
10-09-12 BUY 88.50 16.10 4.30 100.30 18.30 4.90
Shore Capital
07-09-12 HOLD 88.90 16.20 3.80 97.20 17.70 4.50
Westhouse Securities
06-09-12 BUY
Investec Securities
17-08-12 BUY 89.10 16.10 4.30 100.50 18.10 4.70
Fairfax IS
24-07-12 HOLD 88.80 16.10 4.40 95.40 17.30 4.90

2012 2013
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 89.31 16.33 4.28 99.16 18.03 4.78
1 Month Change 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.00
3 Month Change -1.24 -0.22 -0.08 -1.68 -0.38 -0.07


GROWTH
2011 (A) 2012 (E) 2013 (E)
Norm. EPS 22.39% 22.05% 10.44%
DPS 21.11% 30.83% 11.66%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2011 (A) 2012 (E) 2013 (E)

EBITDA £107.20m £120.91m £131.40m
EBIT £84.20m £99.04m £106.31m
Dividend Yield 1.57% 2.06% 2.30%
Dividend Cover 4.09x 3.82x 3.78x
PER 15.55x 12.74x 11.53x
PEG 0.69f 0.58f 1.10f
Net Asset Value PS 11.82p p p

What The Brokers Say

Strong Buy 6
Buy 0
Neutral 2
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0

Total 8
Digital Look

Ig Index proxy for shorting......

Client Sentiment
100% of IG clients with open positions in this market expect the price to rise

0% of IG clients with open positions in this market expect the price to fall

11 – 50 IG clients have open positions in this market

Broker Buy targets....

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

05 Sep Senior PLC Oriel Securities Buy 206.80 235.00 235.00 Retains
09 Aug Senior PLC Credit Suisse Neutral 206.80 210.00 210.00 Reiterates
30 Jul Senior PLC Jefferies International Buy 206.80 222.00 223.00 Retains
25 Jul Senior PLC N+1 Brewin Buy 206.80 233.00 233.00 Retains
23 Jul Senior PLC Jefferies International Buy 206.80 222.00 222.00 Retains
23 Jul Senior PLC Investec Buy 206.80 250.00 250.00 Retains

Investec lead the way with a 250p SP target.

NORWICH & PETERBOROUGH BUILDING SOCIETY

Broker Brief.....

02 Oct Senior PLC SNR Citigroup Buy 206.55 206.20 230.00 230.00 Reiterates

230p SP TARGET

04 Oct Senior PLC SNR Oriel Securities Buy 204.35 204.20 235.00 235.00 Retains

Disposal helping the SP added a few more....


http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201210160700077499160700077499O

Group revenue increased by 3.7% to £450.5m (H1 2015 - £434.5m). This included a favourable exchange rate impact of £21.5m and a beneficial incremental impact from acquisitions of £18.6m. Underlying Group revenue from organic operations was down £24.1m (5.3%) on a constant currency basis as growth from the Aerospace Division was offset by lower Flexonics revenue due to weaker truck and off-highway, and oil and gas markets.

Adjusted operating profit decreased by £9.0m (16.0%) to £47.2m (H1 2015 - £56.2m). This included a favourable exchange rate impact of £2.7m and £2.0m of operating profit contributed by acquisitions. Adjusted operating profit from organic operations decreased by 23.3% on a constant currency basis. Whilst the Group continues to focus on operational improvements, cost management and efficiency initiatives, as previously disclosed, margins in the first half of 2016 were impacted by the reduction in volumes and change in mix in the Flexonics Division, as well as the ramp-up of new aircraft production programmes in the Aerospace Division. These resulted in the Group's adjusted operating margin reducing by 2.4 percentage points to 10.5%.

Adjusted profit before tax decreased to £42.3m (H1 2015 - £52.1m), down 18.8%, or 22.5% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted earnings per share decreased by 18.2% to 8.07 pence (H1 2015 - 9.86 pence).

The Group generated free cash inflow of £17.3m (H1 2015 - £24.7m) after gross investment in capital expenditure of £22.8m (H1 2015 - £23.3m). The level of net debt at the end of June 2016 was £207.3m (December 2015 - £194.6m). This increase was principally due to unfavourable currency movements of £12.2m and £18.3m of dividend payments partly offset by free cash inflow of £17.3m and proceeds on disposal of business of £1.5m. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA at the end of June 2016 was 1.6x, comfortably below the Group's bank covenant level of 3.0x.

Recognising the underlying strength of the business and its future prospects, the Board has approved an interim dividend of 1.95 pence per share, an increase of 6.0% over the prior year (H1 2015 - 1.84 pence). It will be paid on 30 November 2016 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 21 October 2016.