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AVIVA again, New thread. worth considering (AV.)     

Fred1new - 27 Apr 2007 17:13

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AV.&Si



I hold these stock.

DYOH (do your own homework.)

To-day there was a slight drop in price, but number of analysts are giving favourable reports.

What triggered my interest was better than expected results and if I am right looking at charts it shows an inverted head and shoulders. Hopefully a good sign. Also the current rate of Share price growth is about 90% pa over the last 5weeks. This is unlikely to continue indefinitely but SP could hit 850p over next few weeks.

To-day at close, there were some large buys of about 5million shares. 40million approx.

Another trigger for me was the following which should increase earnings.

Aviva to form JV in Taiwan with First FinancialAFX
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Aviva PLC, the UK's largest insurer, said it has entered into a joint venture with First Financial Holding Co Ltd to sell insurance and pension products in Taiwan. The joint venture company, First-Aviva, will distribute long-term savings and pension products in Taiwan through an exclusive agreement with First Financial's flagship unit, First Commercial Bank. Aviva, which will have a 49 pct stake in the joint venture, added that the initial paid up capital of the new company will be 34 mln stg.First Commercial Bank is Taiwan's second largest bank network, with five mln retail customers, it added.TFN.newsdesk@thomson.comkkb/faj/slm




Date: Wednesday 25 Apr 2007
LONDON (ShareCast) - If the message gets home that Aviva will not bid for Prudential, the stock should rebound strongly, especially if Aviva can sustain its current impressive performance. There is still work to be done but, at 794.5p, the shares are a strong buy says the Independent.
Date: Tuesday 24 Apr 2007
LONDON (ShareCast) - Aviva stood out among the risers on a tough day for blue chip stocks. The life insurer posted an upbeat first quarter statement with brokers pleased with the numbers.



DYOH

skyhigh - 18 May 2012 08:24 - 150 of 407

bought in this morning...

hlyeo98 - 18 May 2012 10:24 - 151 of 407

Good move... it's cheap.

skyhigh - 18 May 2012 10:59 - 152 of 407

Yep, bought in as a recovery play.. looking for a steady gradual sp climb from here...notwithstanding the horrific market conditions at the mo.

dreamcatcher - 08 Jul 2012 08:08 - 153 of 407

..Questor share tip: Aviva is a hold until its plan comes together

By Garry White | Telegraph – 49 minutes ago
....


The market appeared a little underwhelmed by Aviva’s new strategy, with shares rising 1.1pc after they were unveiled on Thursday. However, the plan put together by chairman John McFarlane looks sensible.

It is clear the strategy will take time to put into place, which explains the muted response. But investors can now have confidence in the longer term outlook for the world’s sixth-largest insurer.

The strategy seeks to improve profitability, capital discipline and cash generation so the company can return to growth.

Under previous chief executive, Andrew Moss, the group had become complex and its deployment of capital questionable. Indeed, an analysis by RBC (MCX: RBCI.ME - news) has revealed that just 14pc of the group’s assets are actually performing in terms of capital employed. This is based on the company’s own admission that just 15 out of 58 segments are doing OK.

This figure highlights the scale of the task for Mr McFarlane and the, as yet unknown, replacement chief executive.

Aviva plans to increase its capital base substantially, potentially raising up to £3bn to boost its financial buffers.

The insurer will do this through disposals and it has already moved quickly, selling half its stake in Dutch insurer Delta Lloyd (Stuttgart: A0YC08 - news) on Friday.

This raised £318m in what should be regarded as a pragmatic move. Aviva had previously said it thought the business was undervalued and it would not sell at these levels.

The group will exit from 16 businesses in total, including its South Korea operations. These have been tying up capital, but not providing decent returns. The sale of its US business is also likely, although that has not been implicitly stated.

Aviva is also stripping back its layers of management and plans to increase internal efficiency. This is positive, as one criticism of Aviva over the past few years was that the company had become complex and unwieldy. The cost-cutting plan aims to shave £400m of expenses each year. This should offset some of the loss of earnings from the non-core businesses that are to be sold.

One main attraction of Aviva has been its dividend. Currently, the shares are trading with a very impressive yield of 8.6pc. Can we regard the dividend as safe?

Management has explicitly said it does not plan to raise capital through a share issue, although this statement was qualified. “Subject to execution, it is not our current intention to raise new equity,” Mr McFarlane said.

Should the eurozone crisis deepen and the global economy take a dive, then it will become a buyers’ market. There will be few of Aviva’s peers that would be willing to take the risk of buying assets against such a backdrop. This infers that prospects of a rights issue are tied into the health of the global M&A cycle. So, although it is good news that a rights issue has been ruled out for now, the spectre still looms large.

On the dividend front, Mr McFarlane said they were “trying” to save the dividend. Questor reads this as meaning there is a chance that it will be trimmed in the next couple of years, depending on how well the disposal plan goes. We still don’t know for sure.

The easy part of any strategic plan is putting it together. Then comes the execution.

Any mis-steps could result in a cut in the dividend, which will stoke investor ire. Indeed, it is arguable that the market is already pricing in a dividend cut because the yield is so high.

Another major concern is the fact that the company is still without a chief executive. With Mr McFarlane already putting the turnaround plan together and getting the process under way, the best candidates for chief executive may be put off. A change of plan at this stage would knock investor confidence further and the best person for the job may not wish merely to follow someone else’s strategy.

There is no doubt that the shares are cheap, trading on a current year-earning multiple of 5.7, falling to 5.2 next year, compared with RSA Insurance (Other OTC: RSANF.PK - news) on a 2012 multiple of 8.2 falling to 7.7.

Whether we have reached an inflection point for embattled investors remains to be seen. Questor is cautious and now rates the shares a hold because of the execution risk.

..

aldwickk - 08 Jul 2012 09:18 - 154 of 407

"I hold these stock."

Edit: I hold this stock


Back to Aviva , let the trend be your friend and trade it up for a small quick profit. I don't hold them stock [ sorry i made a Fredisam ] in the spelling

skinny - 01 Aug 2012 16:26 - 155 of 407

1 August 2012

AVIVA COMPLETES SALE OF CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY AND ROMANIA LIFE BUSINESSES

Further to its announcement dated 30 January 2012, Aviva plc has completed the sale of its Czech, Hungarian and Romanian Life businesses to MetLife Inc's local operating subsidiaries in those countries. Completion of the sale of Aviva's Romanian Pensions business is expected to occur later this year subject to regulatory approval.

This transaction is consistent with Aviva's strategy to focus on fewer business segments, where it can produce attractive returns.

-ends-

skinny - 09 Aug 2012 07:05 - 156 of 407

HY12 Part 1 of 5


. Interim operating profit before restructuring costs down 2%

. Interim operating profit after restructuring costs down 10%

- Impact of restructuring costs, foreign exchange, UK weather

. £876 million writedown of US goodwill

. Dividend held at 10p per share

optomistic - 09 Aug 2012 18:04 - 157 of 407

Been out all day, pleasantly surprised to arrive home and see the closing price not too far adrift.

skyhigh - 09 Aug 2012 18:14 - 158 of 407

same here. thought it would be a bigger drop...still might happen...we'll see!

optomistic - 09 Aug 2012 20:36 - 159 of 407

A little night time reading:

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/08/09/aviva-greases-skids-for-sale-of-us-operations/

sorry link is inactive, just c&p into the address bar.

dreamcatcher - 09 Aug 2012 23:57 - 160 of 407

Aviva was the fifth-most popular purchase by TD Direct Investing's private clients this morning. And for once, there was firm news: the publication of half-yearly results, which saw the dividend maintained at 10p per share, placing the stock on a yield of 8%.

You can get the scoop here, but for me -- given the opportunity that incoming chairman and interim CEO John McFarlane has had to''kitchen sink' bad news -- Aviva is starting to look like a share where the doomsayers were mistaken. And certainly, with a strong record of share purchases in the run-up to today's results, a lot of investors will be breathing a sigh of relief.

Will they yet be disappointed? Time will tell.

skinny - 10 Aug 2012 10:10 - 161 of 407

Copied from elsewhere: - Aviva Management Discusses H1 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

skinny - 21 Aug 2012 08:42 - 162 of 407

300. 330 (changed on edit.) has proven to be a step too far over the last week.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AV.&Si

optomistic - 21 Aug 2012 13:15 - 163 of 407

skinny

"300 has proven to be a step too far over the last week"

300 no problem but 330 seems to be giving some resistance right now, but I reckon it has to be expected after such a good run up.

skinny - 21 Aug 2012 13:18 - 164 of 407

Yes sorry - I meant 330 hence posting the chart!

And now corrected:-)

optomistic - 21 Aug 2012 15:50 - 165 of 407

skinny, I realised it was a typo but couldn't let it go without comment LOL.

Appears to have now broken through the 330 resistance :-)

skinny - 21 Aug 2012 15:52 - 166 of 407

Yes - excellent daily candle atm.

skinny - 24 Aug 2012 07:41 - 167 of 407

Insurer Aviva may cut 800 UK jobs to cut costs - reports

Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:47am BST
(Reuters) - Britain's No. 2 insurer Aviva PLC (AV.L) may cut as many as 800 jobs at its UK business in a cost-cutting drive, media reported.

The job losses will be spread across the UK businesses and will come by the end of the year, the Guardian newspaper reported on its website, citing an internal email sent to staff.

HARRYCAT - 18 Sep 2012 14:12 - 168 of 407

DeutscheBank note out today:
"Aviva’s share price has lifted >40% since its June lows. Though much of this has been driven by the improved macro backdrop, it also reflects greater confidence in Aviva itself following the unveiling of the new management strategy in July. We remain strongly supportive of the group’s plans; however, even if these are delivered in full (which for the cost savings won’t be clear before 2014), the narrowing PE discount to the sector now leaves little room for disappointment. On valuation grounds, therefore, we downgrade to Hold.
Irrespective of our downgrade, we acknowledge a clear benefit to Aviva from the recent more upbeat mood in the Eurozone. From 140% in June, economic solvency now looks set to end 2012 above 150%e, helped mainly by lower sovereign and corporate bond spreads. Moreover, downside risk looks more contained and prospects of delivery on the disposal programme should have improved. However, little of this feeds through into earnings. Indeed, we have cut our EPS forecasts (by 3% for 2014e), mainly reflecting lower reinvestment rates at the short end.
Our forecasts build in full delivery of management’s £400m targeted cost savings by 2014e, partially offset by dilution of 10%e from disposals and derisking. Based on this ‘look-through’ forecast, the shares now trade at 7.5x 2014e earnings (xd adjusted), a 5% discount to the sector vs 20% in June, and close to the PE’s of better capitalised composites such as Allianz (Buy, €96.52) and Zurich (Hold, CHF 242.9). On a relative basis, this looks high enough. Even if management were to successfully deliver on the restructuring plans, Aviva’s capital and leverage ratios would still be less good than most peers, with lower than average exposure to growth markets. We do not, therefore, believe that a PE premium would be deserved.
Valuation and risks
We lift our SOTP-based price target by 1% to 375p (on an xd basis), with the benefit from improved solvency partly offset by lower EPS forecasts. Key upside / downside risks are investment market sensitivity, and a better / worse outcome than assumed on the restructuring programme.

skinny - 18 Sep 2012 15:53 - 169 of 407

I have an optimistic limit order in for a few more of these today - ex dividend tomorrow 10p.
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