Is shell starting the expected rush to buy oil companies?
naturally BIG buying SMALL

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11521123/Shell-in-talks-to-buy-BG-Group.html

out of curiosity, while i know that OPHR holds plenty of licences, is the company actually pumping any oil at this juncture?

after such a spike at the start of the day, 61.8% retracement has taken place
High 167p
low 145.60p
61.8% retracement 154p

re - BREAKOUT

153.50p was yesterday the next resistance, that was broken a the start of the day and on doing the retracement the 153.50p was then resistance, so the share price only came down to 154p aswell as the retracement 61.8%
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These oil stocks are potential bid targets
By Lee Wild | Wed, 8th April 2015 -

These oil stocks are potential bid targets It was only a matter of time before BG Group (BG.) fell to a takeover approach. Actually, City watchers have been predicting this event since the oil assets of British Gas were split from the residential gas business (now Centrica) in 2000. But is this the beginning of a sector-wide consolidation, or an opportunist bid for a perennial bid favourite?
Well, the consensus is that a flurry of takeovers similar to those that took place in the late-1990s is unlikely. With oil prices having plunged to just $10 a barrel, Exxon bought Mobil, BP (BP.) splashed out $48 billion on Amoco, and French titan Total bought Petrofina and Elf.

However, it may not be so easy to get many mega-deals past the regulators this time round.

"Shell (RDSB) does not have a great record of success in M&A and we are not convinced that this unleashes a wave of M&A amongst the big players," says Westhouse Securities. "Anti-trust issues will prevent the bigger players combining."

But there are plenty more fish in the sea and investors are advised to look further down the food chain for bid action.

"M&A is necessary amongst the mid-sized and smaller players, particularly in the E&P sector and would highlight Tullow Oil (TLW) (West and East Africa), Ophir Energy (OPHR) (East African gas), Dragon Oil (DGO) (massive cash balance), Genel Energy (GENL) (Kurdistan) and SOCO International (SIA) (SE Asia) as probably the top five candidates amongst UK listed players," writes Westhouse.

Consolidation also needs to occur amongst the smaller players as there are too many sub-scale, poorly funded, single asset/country companies listed on public markets."

Here, the broker highlights North Sea explorers Faroe Petroleum (FPM), Ithaca Energy (IAE) and Parkmead (PMG), as well as Rockhopper Exploration (RKH), Bowleven (BLVN), Circle Oil (COP), Lekoil (LEK) and Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR), "all candidates for takeover given their depressed valuations relative to their portfolios".

Clearly, the market agrees, and share prices are already reflecting heightened bid speculation.

Sold the second lot at 157+

1 - Oil price is weakening from reaching $59.20 is now $57.20
2 - Profit is too large since buying at 121.91p gain of 35p or 28.70%
3 - share price over the higher Band at BB
4 - running out of time on the T+20

The Capital Group Companies,

sells close to 1M shares
the 8th April goes under 8%

beffore 57,426,688 over 8% now 56,445,647 or 7.9305%

Upgraded but down on the day, yesterday was the highest price recently
---------------------------

Ophir upgraded by JP Morgan

JP Morgan Cazenove has removed Ophir Energy (LON:OPHR) from its list of stocks to avoid and upgraded to a more moderate 'neutral' rating from 'underweight', today.

The broker reckons that the new look Ophir offers a more diverse and sustainable outlook, if more complex.

"We believe the operational uncertainty means it is too early to be outright bullish, but see downside risk as diminished; we therefore upgrade from UW to N and increase our Dec-15 PT to 172p from 167p previously," analyst James Thompson added.

The shares have risen by 37 per cent in the past month, despite losing 3 per cent by mid-afternoon, today.

At 16:48pm: (LON:OPHR) Ophir Energy share price was -5.25p at 159.75p

I am back in @ 142p after dropping so much today due to ............

PLACING OF 56,607,366 ORDINARY SHARES IN OPHIR ENERGY PLC
(THE "COMPANY") BY KULCZYK INVESTMENTS SA ("KULCZYK") AND CERTAIN SUBSIDIARIES OF KULCZYK
30 April 2015

Further to the announcement released yesterday, Kulczyk and certain subsidiaries of Kulczyk (the "Kulczyk Entities") announce that they have sold 56,607,366 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 140 pence per share (the "Placing"). The Kulczyk Entities have raised aggregate gross sale proceeds of approximately £79.3 million through the Placing. Following completion of the Placing, the Kulczyk Entities will not hold any ordinary shares in the Company.

The proceeds of the Placing are payable in cash on usual settlement terms, and closing of the Placing is expected to occur on 5 May 2015, subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain customary conditions.

The STRONG Support will be if gap is fill @ 125?

But GAP's not always get fill, specially if they are so far away down

The only reason the share price has fallen for the last couple days is for the news of the placing, otherwise everything is OK with the company, and even today the OIL price is rising to new highs

intraday resistance @ 145p

That will be the figure to look for, already reached once and fallen again
It was ( looking at the intraday chart ) the price the Market Makers drop to at the start of the day
once it get over that then time to look forward to stronger bounce back

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

WTI Crude futures are up almost 6%, spiking above $48.50 into the close and options expiration… no fundamental catalyst for now… Once again, crude futures have been ‘spoofed’ all day so this is hardly a surprise.

Mootley Fools have fallen to its depths as no writer has any credibility for some time now and certainly this one falls into that category..................

Why Ophir Energy Plc Is Plunging Today… And Why I Would Sell!
By Motley Fool | Thu, 30th April 2015 - 10:41

It's not a great a time to be invested in small oil and gas producers, and today's news about Ophir Energy's (LSE:OPHR) placing just reinforces that view. Its shareholders were the biggest losers in the FTSE 250 on Thursday at the time of writing.

The Placing

Ophir announced today that Kulczyk Entities, its second-largest shareholder, had sold 56.6m shares at 140p apiece for about £79.3m. Following the completion of the placing of its 8% stake, Kulczyk Entities will not hold any ordinary shares in the company.

This is a big problem, for two reasons. First, Ophir loses credibility and a key, cash-rich shareholder at a critical time when relationships are vital to its success, particularly when it comes to looking for new partnerships.

Second, it loses a possible source of cash: Ophir is solid financially, and has cash on the balance sheet, but may need to raise funds in the next 36 months if its assets do not produce the required level of cash flows.

Inevitably, the shares were hammered in early trade today, having lost 11% of value so far. More pain may lie ahead, and here's why you'd do well to cut your losses if you are invested.

My Take

If weakness in oil prices persists, the oil and gas producer could become less comfortable with its cash position, as heavy investment remains core to its strategy.

As I recently argued, the good news is that Ophir's balance sheet isn't stretched, but to fund its ambitious expansion plans, it may need up to $500m a year in heavy investment -- and those are funding requirements for much bigger players.

Ophir, whose core assets are based in Africa, has recently announced to have almost halved its capex programme to $250-300 million, but nobody really knows if it'll manage to stick to the plan as it needs investment to grow as a profitable entity.

Opportunity/Salamander/Oil

If you think this is a good opportunity to snap up the shares, also consider that Ophir has lost about $250m in the past three years, and is unlikely to report meaningful economic profits at least until 2017.

M&A is also core to its strategy, which heightens the risk of the investment.

When Asian oil explorer Salamander Energy was bought at the end of 2014, the all-stock deal held a "compelling strategic logic", according to management, but only analysts seem to have bought into such an argument. It has yet to be seen whether the deal makes any sense financially and economically.

The acquisition of Salamander, which was completed last month, hasn't done much to lift spirits, and Ophir stock has gone nowhere since November, in spite of bullish price targets from analysts, according to which Ophir should now be worth more than 200p a share, rather than 143p.

Ophir remains a "high-risk/uncertain-return" investment -- one for which you may record hefty losses if Brent stays below $65 per barrel into 2016.

It looks like the buyback is completed. Lets see how the share behave without the buyback........

Buyback of Own Shares
London, 1 May 2015: Ophir Energy plc (the "Company") announces that it has purchased the following number of ordinary shares

Date of purchase
1 May 2015
Number of shares purchased
393,612
Daily VWAP (pence)
144.49

The purchased shares will be all held as treasury shares. Following the purchase of these shares, the Company holds, or will hold 40,858,062 of its own shares in treasury.

This purchase completes the US$100m share buyback programme announced on 29 August 2014.

Was that some very good news ?
1 - 67000 boepd
2 - number of development wells required for first production from seven to three
3 - and capital expenditure have been reduced by $200 million

Ophir Energy Plc - 05 May 2015

Appointment of Golar LNG as Midstream Partner for Fortuna FLNG Project in Equatorial Guinea

Ophir Energy plc ("Ophir" or "the Company") announces it has signed a binding heads of terms for a midstream chartering and operating services agreement with Golar LNG ("Golar") with the agreement of GEPetrol, its partner in Block R in Equatorial Guinea, who will formally ratify it next week. This agreement establishes the key commercial terms for Golar to build, operate and maintain the floating liquefaction and storage vessel and facilities at Ophir's operated Fortuna floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project in Block R, Equatorial Guinea. The vessel to be used will be Golar's Gimi FLNG vessel.

Nick Cooper, Chief Executive of Ophir Energy, commented:

"Finalising our midstream partner is a significant step forward for the Fortuna FLNG project. This agreement accelerates the date of first gas and reduces costs in a critical part of the value chain. We believe the terms of the agreement allow the project to deliver LNG at attractive returns into both Pacific Basin and Atlantic Basin LNG customers. The agreement completes the value chain economics and allows Ophir to confidently plan for first gas, and c. 67,000 boepd of production by mid-2019.

At a time when many other greenfield LNG projects are decelerating, Ophir has elected to accelerate the Fortuna FLNG Project to secure what we believe will be a better market opportunity at first gas, and to lock in anticipated reductions in upstream development costs. We will now move immediately into the define phase of the upstream and midstream projects with a view to reaching Final Investment Decision ("FID") by mid-2016.

We are pleased to have secured Golar as a partner; the firm is a leading provider of FLNG solutions and the flexible, competitive commercial terms we have agreed will ensure that FID can be taken at current LNG prices. Ophir sees many parallels with the emergence of leased FPSOs approximately 25 years ago for oil developments. The re-fitting of vessels and leasing them to independent E&P companies in an oil field context both unlocked a series of oil assets and also provided competitive advantage to those early adopters of the technology. Ophir believes that the same is now about to happen in a gas field context for FLNG."

Golar will operate the Gimi under a twenty-year charter term. During this period it will be responsible for the sub-sea well control, receiving, liquefying and offloading the gas to LNG vessels. Ophir, as the operator of the Upstream component of the project, will lease the Gimi. Ophir's responsibility will be to construct and build the sub-sea facilities, drill the development wells, manage the performance of the reservoirs and, together with the Ministry of Energy and Sonagas, to market the gas on behalf of all upstream parties.

Golar, with its partners Keppel Shipyard ("Keppel") and Black and Veatch have previously committed to the Gimi FLNG conversion in December 2014. Keppel is a global leader in the conversion of floating production, storage, and offloading vessels and floating storage and re-gasification units. Keppel, which has a track record of close to 120 conversions, already working with Golar to convert a similar LNG vessel for use offshore Cameroon. Black and Veatch is a leading provider of proprietary liquefaction technology.

The Gimi is expected to have an annual average capacity of 2.2 mtpa at a reservoir production rate of up to 400,000 mscfd (c. 67,000boepd) with first gas expected mid-2019. Ophir and Golar have agreed a vessel charter rate that is competitive with US liquefaction tolls and that ensures that the Fortuna LNG project is delivered at the low end of the cost curve for LNG projects.

The Fortuna FLNG project will now move into the full definition phase and Ophir has recently appointed Worley Parsons as Owners Engineer to the project. The midstream Front End Engineering and Design ("FEED") is expected to be completed by end-2015 and the upstream FEED is expected to be completed in Q2 2016. The project is planned to reach FID by mid-2016, at which point Ophir, Golar and GEPetrol intend to have signed a fully termed charter agreement based upon these heads of terms.

The flow rate established by the Fortuna drill stem test ("DST") conducted in late 2014 has resulted in a reduction in the estimated number of development wells required for first production from seven to three. As such, upstream capital expenditure to first gas is currently forecast to have been reduced by $200 million to around $800 million. Further savings are expected to be identified as the project moves through FEED. In keeping with its strategy of self-funding its development projects through selling down equity in the asset, Ophir will now turn its attention to bringing an upstream partner into the project, as well as reviewing options for incorporating the Fortuna LNG project into the Group's debt structure.

The previous agreement between Ophir and Excelerate Energy has been terminated by mutual agreement.

That was intended at 9.37am today........ now around 146p +2p, has been to 147.60p not long ago

re : intraday resistance @ 145p

Strange but true
New highs for the Year at both Oil crudes, but unable to break the 145p, other stocks on the same sector have been rising well for the last couple days.
PMO @ 184p, 10 days ago we were neck and neck on the same price
share price has gone over 145p as typing, but very volatile, maybe today will be the day

I had a go at what overage price was the cost of buying back $100,000 of shares

We know the total amount of shares bought 40,858.062 shares
and the amount paid $100,000

now the exchange is more difficult so I have to take middle price of about $1.55 to £1
From the $1.64 at 2nd September when the first by of 185k shares at 237p
to $1.51 on 1st of May of 393K at 144p
$1.46 was the low around end of April

Calculation
$100,000 : $1.55 = £64,516
£64,516 : 40,858.062 shares = 157.90p
157.90p is the overage price paid (1)



(1) What has made the overage so high compare with the price now is the 3 month after starting buying aroung 9M shares were bought from 237p to 160p

this weeks shares mag (page 34) rabbits on about this stock and its t/o possibilities
the chart is truly vile (see header), so either shares mag has an inside line or the market knows what it's talking about .....

my money goes with the latter, but i'm very happy to hear a contrary view

Odd one Cyners. I bought 2000 at 138p a few weeks ago but seem to have lost the plot. Stop loss set at 118p so thats my view. A weak buy!

i was very surprised that shares mag did not highlight either PMO or TLW as good t/o targets ..... they're not bad on fundies either

Yes TLW especially! I only hold 1000 just to keep my toe in!!