I wonder if any gamblers noticed my post 334 on the GMC thread yesterday.
It looks as though bottom fishing can sometimes pay off.

I increased my position when it was at 10.69 euro (ELA:LSE) a few days ago ...Have been a reader of these boards for over a year now ...Trading Elan is a game of cat and mouse ...you need to know when to increase and when to dump your holding ....

(Crippy) I would be more bullish and suggest that holding this stock for 1 year will yield great returns ....

Yes I aggree evilratboy

I also found this article from this mornings times, interesting reading....

The Sunday Times July 30, 2006


Irish Agenda: Takeover rumours centre around Elan's other blockbuster
Joe Brennan



ELANS share price gained more than 12% in New York last week to $14.94 (11.72) amid speculation that Wyeth, an American pharmaceutical giant, was considering a bid for the $6.4 billion company.
Market participants say a takeover would be a logical step, given their partnership in a multibillion dollar Alzheimers programme.



But why now? They could have snapped up Elan a year ago when its stock was worth half what it is now, said a Dublin-based fund manager. Is it that the Alzheimers pipeline has thrown up amazing results in trials?

Indeed.

Wyeth declined to comment.

The partners first hopeful treatment for the degenerative disease, AAB-001, is expected to move into Phase III clinical trials later this year, after they unveil the results of the second phase. Phase III is the final stage before pharma companies apply to the regulatory authorities for approval.

A second drug, ACC-001, is to move into Phase II later this year, about the same time that a third treatment is expected to enter clinical trials.

With the hype around Tysabri, the multiple-sclerosis treatment, the Alzheimers programme has been pushed into the background. Goodbody Stockbrokers forecast earlier this year that if the first drugs get the green light, they could account for half of what it predicts to be a $10 billion Alzheimers drug market within the next 10 years. It is currently worth $3 billion.

It would make perfect sense for Wyeth to take Elan out before the market really starts to price its prospects, said one analyst.

But others remain sceptical. Elans share price is notoriously volatile. This is not the first time it has been surrounded by takeover rumours and, I suspect, it wont be the last, said another dealer.

A third analyst said: A move by Wyeth at this stage would suggest it was somewhat shortsighted by spending 1.8 billion building a facility at Clondalkin last year when Elans factory in Athlone is only running at 40% capacity.

It is understood that a partnership agreement for Tysabri between Elan and the American group Biogen contains a clause that if either company is taken over, both sides have to put in a sealed bid for the drug.

LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Irish drugmaker Elan (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Tuesday it was pleased with the performance of its Tysabri multiple sclerosis drug following the recent relaunch.

"I would say that in the first few weeks of activity we're pleased with what we see," Chief Executive Kelly Martin told reporters when asked about sales of the drug.

Tysabri, which Elan and U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) relaunched in July after last year's suspension over links with a rare and potentially fatal brain disease, is seen as key to Elan's future following a brush with bankruptcy in 2002.


Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

DUBLIN, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Ireland's Elan (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) cut its losses in the second quarter and its battered shares rose on Tuesday as the drugmaker said it was set for a return to profit thanks to the relaunch of its Tysabri multiple sclerosis drug.

"With the approval of Tysabri and the improvements we have made to the business, we are now entering into a new and exciting phase," Elan (ELN.L: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Financial Officer Shane Cooke said in a statement. "We are confident that revenues from Tysabri will drive our return to profitability."


Elan said it had cut its loss per share in the three months to the end of June to 21 cents from 35 cents in the same period last year, slightly missing the median of nine analysts' forecasts compiled by Reuters, which had put the loss at 18 cents.

The loss was in line with that estimate, however, once adjusted to exclude the impact of share-based compensation.

Total revenues in the quarter rose 15 percent to $136.4 million, in line with analysts' expectations that they would reach $137 million.

"With all eyes focused on the performance of Tysabri now it is back on the market, these results reflect the solid progress the company is making on its core business and will support the current share price," Ian Hunter, analyst at Goodbody Stockbrokers, wrote in a research note.

Shares in Elan, which have see-sawed between 24 euros and 2.30 euros over the past two years, were up 3.4 percent at 12.12 euros by 0832 GMT, compared with a 1.2 percent gain for the broader Irish market Tysabri, which Elan and U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) relaunched in July following last year's suspension over links with a rare and potentially fatal brain disease, is seen as key to Elan's future after a brush with bankruptcy in 2002.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the drug to generate revenues for the two companies of $56.75 million this year, rising to an annual $1.77 billion by 2010. The drug's troubled past means forecasts vary widely, however.

Jack Gorman, analyst at Davy stockbrokers in Dublin, pointed out that excluding the costs associated with getting Tysabri back on the market, core earnings were positive for the third quarter in a row.

"Although there was no formal change to guidance in the statement, the Q2 result could mean some small tweaking downwards of our full-year loss estimates," he added.


Excluding the impact of Tysabri on costs and revenues, Elan has forecast a full-year loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $150 million to $175 million, compared with $216.9 million last year.

so after a fairly positive report yesterday from the CEO which London responded well too, the other side of the pond has brought us right down again. if anyone can explain why i would like to know as i cant find any reason.

there is no explanation ...just a bunch of crooks

very true, i notice that Fidelity Investments have another million and a half declared today. Wonder if they will put in a bid for a buy out soon haveing accumulated such a big lump of ELA?

yep seen that ...very sneakily gobbling up stock without many people noticing ...something is going on ...the only thing is there are so many "men behind the curtain" with this stock that nobody knows what the hell is going to happen ..

I just know that i will be buying on anything under 11 euro ...trust the science ...

Fidelity announced an increase in its elan stake to 14.08% today. Whats their game? is its holding purley for a client, as it does hold stakes in a number of companies? Or is it more molvelant, possibly holding for a client who is considering a buy out?

One guy even speculates on ADVFN that it is buying on behalf of Philips and a bid for Elan will come within two months. I dare say all will be revealed but the mystery is very perplexing, all good fun!

something is definately afoot news soon i feel. dont ask me why just a hunch.

Hope you're right!

well it may not have been news directly about Tysabri, but the announcement last week about Elans nano technology being used as the drug delivery method for EntreMed cancer treatment is certainly welcome, and has provided a friday boost for elan.

Goodbody says: Drug delivery partner patent progress.
Analyst: Ian Hunter
EntreMed, a Baltimore-based biotechnology company, has been awarded a patent for the method of using 2ME2, its lead drug for the treatment of cancer and non-cancer diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis. This follows on from the award of a patent covering the composition of highly purified 2ME2 as well as the method of obtaining the compound. In January, Elan signed an agreement with EntreMed for the latter to licence Elan's nano-crystal technology, incorporating it into the drug (also known as Panzem) to create a liquid formulation. Panzem is currently in Phase II trials for treating cancer and at the preclinical stage in rheumatoid arthritis.

At least i think thats the reason :)

not such a good day or so for Elan PLC was trying to figure out why the price has fallen by the ammount it has after building up such a good rise over the last couple of weeks. I found this article that perhaps explains it, maybe????

http://www.newstarget.com/020315.html

as you can see from reading it it seems like another piece of well timed opinion designed to hurt elan and tysabri, i wonder wether it is sponsered by Teva or another such rival pharma company. On reading I thought it seemed like another pretty useless bit of subjective comment by the doctor in question., and the reporter for news target jumped on the band wagon with the scaremongering jheadline:

STANFORD DOCTORS SPOTLIGHT FATAL FLAW IN MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS DRUG TRIAL

all very good if your looking for an attention grabbing headline but the content really does leave alot to be desired. Oh well guess its just another case of rivals attempting to bring down Tysabri. Boy they must be scared at the prospect of tysabri actually being the blockbuster it surley must be given a bit of time, just goes to prove i suppose now is a good time to top up :) Maybe even theres is more news from elan around the corner and this is designed to head it off at the pass so to speak! ;)

sorry article just a rehash of old story pre fda approval. need some positve elan news

Just thought i would share some news about elan....its more a personal thing than a market thing but may be relevant....London tysabri dosing restarts this month, This is the continuation of the trial i was on for the past 3 ish years, which was stopped whenb the bad news about PML happened.

I can only assume the restart means that UK availability is up and running and the trial continuation was afterall a condition of the FDA and euro counterparts granting a licence for remarketing of this future block buster drug. guess it all takes time to get things going again and rest assured I shall be asking my neuros on wednesday what their views on the drug and its future are.

will post more wed night.

Thanks for the update Crippy

hi all not posted since i recieved first infusion, had to go through the new protocol as specified with tysabris reintroduction, mri scan, neuro testting etc. The short version is that it all worked out very well and trial runs for 12 months, hope that the people at NICE allow it to be perscribed, fingers crossed.

Anyway during the infusion, which takes an hour I did not have much chance to speak to the doctor at lenght about what the future of the drug was in her opinion, she was very busy as you might imagine, but I did ask how many of the original trial patients had taken up the oppertunity to take tysabri again and the answer was all but one of the 600 or so patients chose tom take the drug. So all the talk in the news about tysabri having a low take up and doctors wouldnt prescribe it is all a bunch of rubish according to the prof in charge of the trial i am on, who unequivically said he would prescribe it without hesitation.

So my opinion is buy now! Price has been brought down by negative publicity and many neysayers all out to damage Tysabri sales and patient confidence which of course affects Elan. todays price close below pre approval level prices. I topped up again today.

Thanks for the info Crippy. I would be buying more also if I had the funds, this share has been preforming disappointingly recently, but I still believe it's a long term winner, your added info on take up has increased my confidence!

Follow the man chaps, follow Mr Wright and get its right.

UK healthcare products developer Maelor is buying Acorus Therapeutics and expects full-year results for the year to 31 March to beat market expectations.

Maelor (MLR) shares added 11.8%, but by 2 pm were just 4% higher at 13.25p, up 0.5p which gives the AIM-listed company a market value of 4.54 million.

The company, which recently moved its offices to Chester from Wales, said the positive trading trend its cited when it reporting its interim results in November has been sustained into the last quarter of the financial year and as a result, the company anticipates a significant reduction in losses for the second half of the financial year. It didnt give specific figures.

Sales of Volplex, a plasma substitute that was Maelors first commercial product, continued to grow during the six-month period, as did sales of its catheter flushing devices, Maelor says in a trading statement.

First listed on the London Stock Exchange in 1997, Maelor has struggled in recent years to become profitable. In October 2005, five months after reporting pre-tax losses of 814,244 for the year to 31 March, the companys board brought in Tim Wright, at that time a 39-year-old vice president of international marketing at Dublin-based Elan, the publicly-traded biotechnology company.

yup its a winner alright, so much going for elan so many non believers must be sick they missed the boat, financial data coming at end of july....hope to see considerable tysabri uptake as docs and patients gain confidence, although any neuro who knows anything about ms knows this is a drug that is head and shoulders above the competition. hence the decision by NICE to allow funding recently!....plus the altheimers drug continues to reach its goals. futures sure looking up 30+ by 2008....good luck all! recent dip just consolidation, good time to get more i reckon!