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East Regeneration - Telford Homes (TEF)     

hangon - 24 Apr 2008 18:05

I don't think their name "Telford" indicates where they operate - East London according to Shares.

The current sp 1.50 is more-or-less the price prior to the Olympic Bid, which probably gave the sp a boost, withouit looking to far to the cost involved.

It's been all downhill for the last 12-months - Oooo deary.
The yield isn't good, despite the fall.

mentor - 13 May 2016 09:27 - 153 of 260

As house builders share price has been moving lower for the last few months
Is the share price tells you something or is the negative news about buyers? .....

New buyers deserted housing market in April, says Rics
BBC - By Brian Milligan - Personal Finance reporter - 12 May 2016

The number of people interested in buying a house in April fell to its lowest level for nearly eight years, according to surveyors across the UK.
Those who saw a drop in enquiries last month outnumbered those who saw a rise by 22%.
That is the highest figure reported by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) since August 2008.
Rics said the main reason was the stamp duty rise on 1 April, and the uncertainty around the EU referendum.

The number of new enquiries fell most dramatically in London, but also fell in nine other regions of the UK.
Enquiries rose only in East Anglia, the North and Scotland.
Most surveyors also reported a fall in new instructions to sell, and most expect prices to rise over the next three months.
Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said the market was characterised by uncertainty.

"More ominous is the expectation that both prices and rents will head materially higher over the medium term," he said.
Earlier this week the Halifax reported that annual house price inflation fell from 10.1% in March to 9.2% in April.


_89636896_housepricesmay624.png

mentor - 17 May 2016 16:26 - 154 of 260

Bought in earlier as the TW. update and house prices still rising could be good for results and statement by the start of the month, results 1 June

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=tef&Size=

jimmy b - 17 May 2016 16:28 - 155 of 260

Plus there is a good divi here.

mentor - 17 May 2016 16:44 - 156 of 260

House prices hit record highs - but could this be a 'last hurrah'?

How long can house prices keep rising?
TELEGRAPH - Isabelle Fraser - 17 MAY 2016 • 10:33AM

House prices jumped in March, fuelled by a buy-to-let surge that sparked huge increases in London and the south east – but experts have warned this might be the last rise for some time.

The UK’s average house price grew by 9pc in March, from 7.6pc in February - the highest rate since the same month last year. Prices fell dramatically in Scotland, by 6.1pc compared to the same month last year, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.

Average house prices in seven of the nine English regions are at record levels, with the price in London up 2.2pc on its previous record in January.

This growth means house prices have risen more than five times faster than wages in the last five years, according to analysis by the Resolution Foundation.

The problem is even more acute in London, where house prices have risen by 57pc in five years, but average weekly earning have actually fallen slightly during the same period.

The ONS said that high levels of house price growth in March were most likely due to investors bringing forward purchases before stamp duty on buy-to-let properties was hiked by 3pc. HMRC said that housing transactions surged by 70pc in March from a year ago.

“This is likely to be the last big rise for a while as more realism enters the market, although a shortage of listings and low transaction levels may underpin house price increases in future," said Jeremy Leaf, a former Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors chairman and north London estate agent.

House prices are still increasing annually at a rate that sits well above any rise in average earnings, making our housing market even less affordable as each month goes by Jeremy Duncombe, Legal & General’s Mortgage Club

“Lack of supply continues to be a huge concern, and while the ONS takes some comfort from recent UK construction output figures which showed that house building was the bright spot for the industry in the first quarter, this is potentially a last hurrah as confidence is likely to dip in response to weakening activity."

Rics last week reported a fall in the number of new buyer inquiries in April, to the lowest level since 2008. Home hunters were put off by uncertainty surrounding the referendum on EU membership and affordability concerns, according to Rics.

Mr Leaf added: “People are nervous: there are short-term concerns about the market but longer-term fears about the strength of the economy. Brexit is a bit of a smokescreen - the strength of the economy is a bigger issue.

“While in the suburbs and outside the centre of London the housing industry is still confident, in the centre of London where there is oversupply and a lot of cranes, they are not.”

The top quarter of London's housing market saw an annual fall of 2.4pc, according to estate agency Stirling Ackroyd, but it said that a slowdown was a "myth" for the majority of London.

The buy-to-let industry by numbersPlay! 01:13
Andrew Bridges, managing director, said the London property market was "undergoing a serious readjustment".

Richard Snook, economist at PwC, said: "There are no signs of any Brexit-related slowdown in this month’s figures, although the underlying trends are masked by the effects of the stamp duty change.”

The Council for Mortgage Lenders revealed that house purchase lending was up 60pc in March compared to the same month last year. This was due largely to the rush to beat the stamp duty increase, but there was a boom in home movers securing mortgages as well.

Jeremy Duncombe, the director of Legal & General’s Mortgage Club, said: “Given that these figures cover the period leading up to the buy-to-let stamp duty rise, it’s no surprise that they show another strong monthly increase in house prices.

“However, even without this surge in buy-to-let activity, house prices are still increasing annually at a rate that sits well above any rise in average earnings, making our housing market even less affordable as each month goes by."


House prices hit record highs - but could this be a 'last hurrah'?

cynic - 17 May 2016 18:22 - 157 of 260

no, and certainly not at the level and locations where TEF build houses

mentor - 17 May 2016 23:01 - 158 of 260

Last week note from Cenkos

Market Report: Housebuilders sink on bearish broker note -

The housebuilding sector came under fire as broker Cenkos pointed to a cocktail of cracks in London’s premium-end housing market.

As concerns over the capital’s high-end market deepens, Cenkos issued a bearish broker note, downgrading housebuilders Berkeley Group, Telford Homes and Taylor Wimpey. Analysts said the changes to stamp duty, the imposition of the 3pc levy on buy-to-let and second homes in April, masked the problem sector-wide and encouraged “a bonanza of beat-the-deadline transactions” in the first quarter.

Additionally, with increasing global socio-political risks and stretched affordability, Kevin Cammack, of Cenkos, said: “The back-drop to a reversal is set in place.” Around 50pc of demand for London’s higher-value housing market comes from overseas, and the looming threat of a Brexit ahead of the referendum on June 23 have stoked fears about demand in the UK’s capital city.

Mr Cammack also said the city’s mayoral election, which saw Sadiq Khan claim the post last week, could also lead to a period of “uncertainty and change in policy directive”. With build cost inflation in London 3pc higher than the national average, Cenkos believes a stagnation in prices will “start to impact completion margins from 2017 onwards”.

Shares in Taylor Wimpey tumbled to the bottom of the blue chip index in its wake, down 2pc to 180.3p, while Berkeley Group dropped 1.4pc to £29.43 and Telford Homes slipped 0.3pc to 318.8p.
HTTP://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/10/ftse-100-bounces-back-on-steady-chinese-inflation-data/

mentor - 17 May 2016 23:23 - 159 of 260

candlesticks has given a bullish pattern........

Last Pattern:BULLISH PIERCING LINE

Pattern Description
This is a bottom reversal pattern with two candlesticks. A black candlestick appears on the first day while a downtrend is in progress.

mentor - 18 May 2016 08:53 - 160 of 260

A very good view and important factors of this note from Shore capital report. Near full extract from executive summary of Nov 16,

" Telford Homes has raised £50m of new capital that will be used to expand, accelerate and prolong growth. The capital base is expanded and with continuing confidence in Telford’s local markets in London, we see greatly enhanced prospects. The development pipeline already extends out to FY2024F and contains up to £1.5bn of gross development value (GDV), 6.5x current year revenue, and via the new funds we expect the pipeline to expand further from FY2017F. This, along with close to £700m of forward sales, gives Telford by far the greatest earnings visibility in the sector. Coupling the now substantial capital base with still strong market opportunities for securing new sites and continued strong buyer demand, we see great value here with fair value still at 490p. The rating shows an FY2019F PER of 7.5x and P/NAV of 1.14x meaning this stock presents material upside in a sector otherwise struggling to show any.

Long visibility, sustainable growth and FY2017F forecasts raised: The pipeline of sites to bring through to development already stands at c.£1.5bn, having been boosted by c.£500m via the £23m United House acquisition. Now that £50m of additional resource is available to the group, we can see this expanding even further as Telford looks to identify sites within the next 12 months and to commit the new capital fully within two years.

A still bullish market climate in Telford’s London: The media seeks to portray high risk in London residential but we still see great opportunity for developers in more affordable areas. Demand still heavily outweighs supply,

Widening the sales channel while also de-risking: Telford has opened a new sales channel: the institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We see this becoming an important part of the London housing market, helping to bridge the supply gap; it is good for a developer to align with this new market segment, in our view.

Raising growth capital – old school but the right call: While the volume house builders are reducing capital by making large returns to shareholders, raising equity capital for expansion is a long-established sector trend. For Telford, we believe it is the right call for the Board to have made at this point in the market.

Still an under-valued stock: We have historically valued Telford on the same basis as the volume national builders but this increasingly feels wrong. We see unparalleled visibility, a clear long-term strategy, a solid focus on growth and, in our view, still highly favourable local market dynamics. We still see fair value here at 490p and believe that the stock is under-valued on both earnings and NAV bases in a sector that otherwise appears stretched. "

mentor - 18 May 2016 10:10 - 161 of 260

After a shaky start is now looking like is ready for business and up by 5p
with support prices at bid side as well as MMs upping their prices not only the order book placed orders.
order book medium strong, depth 20 V 16

mentor - 18 May 2016 12:27 - 162 of 260

The bounce is on as the shares keep moving forward now by 10p
order book still positive DEPTH of 20 v 17

cynic - 18 May 2016 13:10 - 163 of 260

posts 151, 157 and others not so dumb after all it would seem

jimmy b - 18 May 2016 13:12 - 164 of 260

Moving back up nicely , do you hold cynic ?

cynic - 18 May 2016 13:36 - 165 of 260

sure do boss ...... in my sipp as they have been for a little while

mentor - 18 May 2016 15:40 - 166 of 260

How they have performed during the last month
TEF with today's large rise is moving up the from being the worse performer

p.php?pid=legacydaily&epic=L^TEF&type=1&

mentor - 19 May 2016 09:25 - 167 of 260

the reason of being weak before that date...........

LIONTRUST

sold up to 17th May 145K
gone under 5%
now 3,633,943 - 4.855%

mentor - 19 May 2016 10:14 - 168 of 260

mood changing? ...........

https://www.theguardian.com/business/marketforceslive/2016/may/18/housebuilders-gain-more-ground-after-taylor-wimpey-update

TW's assertion that they can pay silly divis even through a downturn has finally woken up a few investors who had assumed at the first whiff of downturn the builders would pull in their horns. IN short the sector is doing very well and can weather a modest downturn without adjustment of divi payments. Safety margins are in place for the sector unlike 2008.

If you recall TW went zero divi for years and did a big share dilution in the crisis and has been playing it safe alongside all the major builders ever since. That is why there is such a large market opportunity for a nimble aggressive player like TEF in East London.

I'm afraid TEF's dilution even though it was strategic spooked the market short term as the sector spooked the market in 2009 with the emergency fund raising dilutions from the majors. Gave placements in the sector a tainted feel to them that has not entirely evaporated. As Keynes would say "animal spirits" not necessarily logical evidence based investing.

mentor - 20 May 2016 15:40 - 169 of 260

this afternoon is having another go and moving over last Wednesday intraday high

currently bid 346.25 Ask: 347.00 Change: +9.00 (+2.66%)

jimmy b - 20 May 2016 15:40 - 170 of 260

Another good day for TEF.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=TEF&Size=

mentor - 23 May 2016 15:38 - 171 of 260

another good day once it kept going allway takes a bit of time at the start of the day

351.00p Change: +7.25 (+2.11%)

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=TEF&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=TEF&Size=

cynic - 23 May 2016 16:14 - 172 of 260

always happy to see a positive day here, but volume is pathetic = <100k
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