http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

Citigroup Sell 191.45 274.00 141.00 Downgrades

Just when it looked like it couldn't get much worse - it just did

RBC comment today:
"Majority of our coverage is currently net cash – The majority of companies in our coverage are cash positive with little or no gearing. Exceptions are Petropavlovsk, which carries the highest gearing at 82.5% (YE2013E), Polymetal also being net debt following a period of heavy capital expenditure, and Highland Gold, which has recently acquired Kekura deposit for US$211m using debt.
Most companies robust at US$1,400/oz gold – Based on our analysis most companies should be able to continue to operate and advance their current capex projects at US$1,400/oz although Teranga, Avocet, Petropavlovsk and Centerra could turn FCF negative at times between 2013-2015E. Producers which should fare better are ones with the lowest all-in sustaning cash costs, such as Centamin, Randgold, Polymetal and Fresnillo, all having all-in sustaining cash cost per ounce of less than US$900/oz. By contrast, ABG, Centerra and Avocet are all above US$1,200/oz by this measure.
Capital projects and exploration under threat at US$1,200/oz – Should gold pull back to US$1,200/oz level we believe that a number of miners would have to re think their capital investment plans, as well as exploration budgets to preserve liquidity and keep current operations afloat. The most vulnerable under this scenario would be Avocet, Centerra, Petropavlovsk and Teranga.
With gold equities down 30% on average YTD to Friday underperforming the metal (-14% YTD), we believe that there is value amongst the equities. However, until gold finds a level, the equities are likely to remain under pressure. Based on the strength of cash generation and balance sheet stability, we recommend investors who need to be positioned in golds to focus on Fresnillo, Randgold and Centamin as these companies are best insulated against the lower gold prices due to a combination of low all-in sustaining costs and strong balance sheets."

thats made my day good.... :((

Sorry Bb, but here's more, this time from Cazenove:
"In the last two days POG’s shares have slumped 28% as gold has fallen to a 25 month low. Our stress tests imply fears for POG’s US$1.1bn net debt appear warranted; we estimate if spot US$1,364/oz gold is the “new normal” POG is likely to breach loan covenants by end 2013. We also calculate a US$340m funding gap for POG’s US$380m 2015 convertible at spot. A positive outcome for POG now looks binary on a gold price recovery. However we do not believe gold’s positive investment case has fundamentally changed and with liquidity concerns reversed at just 9% higher gold prices we retain our high-risk high-reward OW recommendation, albeit with a lower end ‘13E PT of 420p (460p) based on a 15% reduction in our FY14E EBITDA estimate.
Loan covenants are at risk at current gold price: If US$1,380/oz spot persists, we forecast POG will record 3.4/5.3x net debt/EBITDA in 2013/14, thereby breaching its 3.5x covenant. We estimate gold will need to average over US$1,400/oz for the remainder of 2013 and exceed US$1,500/oz in 2014 to avoid breaching covenants.
US$380m convertible an emerging tail risk: POG reported US$159m cash at YE’12 and its next major debt maturity is its US$380m convertible due in Feb’15. At US$1,380/oz we forecast a US$340m funding gap in Feb’15, but we understand POG has US$150m of undrawn loan facilities from Russian banks which could ameliorate refinancing risk.
Perfect storm of balance sheet, gold price and technical risk: POG’s shares have been dominated for the last 2 years by concerns over potential ramp-up delays for its US$380m POX plant due for Q1’14 commissioning. A positive outcome for POG’s shares and its liquidity now appears binary on gold price recovery, but the severity of gold’s 13% two day collapse resembles an extreme capitulation to us.
Adjusting EPS on mark-to-market for Q1: we have lowered our FY13/14E EPS estimates for POG by 50/15% on (i) marking to market Q1’13 actual gold prices, and (ii) increasing unit cost estimates based on guidance from the FY12 results presentation. However our NPV increases by 16% from to 319p as we increase our LT gold price assumption from $1,300/oz to $1,500/oz, in-line with JPM commodity team’s recent upgrade.

Not sure if the above note takes into consideration the 50% production hedge at $1663/oz.

Harry is JPMC target price still 420p?

16th April Nomura says reduce, opt 240p, npt 125p.
16th April JPMCaz says overweight opt 460p, npt 420p.

Not sure if I have much faith in either of them!

Harry we would take the average!

I bought a few more in the 30's yesterday - I guess that makes me a 'holder' now!

Interim Management Statement

Key points:

n During Q1 2013, the Group produced 136,800oz of gold, a record for Q1 and an increase of 13% on the comparative period in 2012;
n The Group re-iterates its full-year production target of 760,000-780,000oz with unit costs per tonne of ore processed and per cubic metre of material moved for all hard-rock mines to remain approximately in line with 2012;
n The pressure oxidation hub ("POX Hub") currently remains on track for commissioning in Q1 2014 and the related Malomir flotation plant remains on track for commissioning in Q3 2013;
n Encouraging additional exploration results have been received from the Pioneer area;
n The Company has launched a comprehensive cost-cutting programme and continues to review operating scenarios to accommodate a potential continuation of low gold prices;
n Petropavlovsk has prepared effectively for the current volatility in the gold price via forward sales contracts and achieved a combined average selling price of US$1,639/oz in Q1 2013. Approximately 46-47% of the Group's forecast production over a period of 14 months ending March 2014 is hedged through forward sales contracts to be cash settled at an average price of US$1,663/oz;
n Stage 1 of the equity investment into IRC Limited ("IRC") was completed in April 2013; Stage 2 remains on track for completion in Q3 2013;
n Management believe that the Company continues to operate within its financial covenants at current gold prices; and
n The Group restates its plan to repay a substantial amount of its debt by 2019.

Isn't it sad when a 13% hike in gold production results in a 4% drop in the sp.

Petropavlovsk Q1 gold output 136,800oz, up 13%
StockMarketWire.com
Petropavlovsk said it produced a record 136,800 ounces of gold in the first quarter, up 13% on the year, and reiterated its full-year production target of 760,000-780,000 ounces.

"Operationally, the year has begun positively for Petropavlovsk with output on track to achieve the previously guided production target," said chairman Peter Hambro.

He said the company's focus for 2013-14 has been to complete its major capital spending programmes and then commence the process of driving down the debt incurred to pay for those projects.

"However, the sharp reduction in the gold price, which has fallen from approximately $1,700/oz at the beginning of January to a recent low of $1,380/oz, is causing us to review our short to medium term strategy," Hambro said.

One options included conserving cash by restricting discretionary capital and exploration expenditure whilst redoubling our efforts to move newly identified, non-refractory resources at Pioneer into mineable reserves so as to de-risk the production schedule for 2014 - the year of scheduled commissioning of the POX Hub - and perhaps for longer.

A further option would be a temporary slowdown of the implementation of the POX Hub and flotation plant at Malomir which would release greater amounts of cash and permit earlier debt repayment. Under this scenario, the POX Hub would not be operational until 2015.

"The Group's Operations Committee is currently holding its scheduled meeting in Blagoveschensk and is reviewing these and other scenarios in detail and the market will be updated on the final decision in due course," Hambro said.

"The forward sale of half of our output, which has a further 11 months to run, allows flexibility in our decision making process."

This share was £4 only 3 months back.

As the boy fly said to the lady fly, " Excuse me dear, but is this STOOL taken ? "

This mining sector is unbelievable. If you want to lose money, this is the place to be !

Cazenove comment today:
"Guidance reiterated, cost cutting measures: POG forecasts 760-780koz in FY’13 at flat unit costs at its hard rock mines. This is in line with JPMe of 766koz at $952/oz. Construction of the POX plant is on track for Q1'14 commissioning with the Malomir floatation circuit on track for Q3’13.
Management is assessing cash conservation including: cutting capex and exploration, slowing POX ramp-up to 2015 and attempting to process greater non-refractory ore. We identify a key risk with such measures could be the impact on 2014 and 2015 production and cash flow if POX is slowed.
Net debt increases to $1.2bn, but repayment relief: Quarter end net debt increased 10% from YE’12 to $1.2bn. POG’s shares have lost 63% YTD on balance sheet concerns at lower gold prices. Positively POG states it has renegotiated 2014 loan maturities, shifting 50% of $337m repayable in 2014 to 2016 and 2017. This leaves POG’s $380m, Feb’15 convertible bond as its key refinancing risk. We estimate gold will need to average over $1,400/oz for the rest of 2013 and exceed $1,500/oz in 2014 to avoid breaching POG’s sub 4.0x net debt / EBITDA covenant. $106m gold market value: Ex-IRC, POG’s gold has an implied market value of $106m which we regard as too pessimistic. Despite real concern for its balance sheet we estimate loan covenants come do not come under threat until 2014, therefore on spot POG is not facing imminent liquidity stress.
Valuation: We forecast earnings are close to breakeven at spot, yet we still calculate POG’s gold operations trade on MtM 5.3/10.3x 2013/14 PER and 3.0/3.5x EV/EBITDA. We maintain our £4.20/shr PT and with POG trading at just 0.43x P/NPV. We remain Overweight."

Canaccord Genuity Buy 134.85 138.00 600.00 600.00 Reiterates

Westhouse Securities Buy 134.85 138.00 365.00 365.00 Retains

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Buy 134.85 138.00 530.00 530.00 Retains

Blimey skinny it this a bargain or are the brokers taking the pith.?

Added charts at top.