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Borders & Southern - Here we go (BOR) (BOR)     

Proselenes - 15 Jun 2011 08:54

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Proselenes - 07 Mar 2012 13:54 - 154 of 1086


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/39909/

7th March


Borders & Southern Petroleum retains 'buy' rating at Merchant Securities after Darwin well spud

9:17 am by Sergei Balashov

Merchant Securities currently has a 'buy' recommendation and a 218.9p on Borders & Southern


Merchant Securities today repeated its ‘buy’ recommendation and ultra-bullish target price on Borders & Southern Petroleum (LON:BOR) following the start of its hotly anticipated drilling campaign in the Falklands.

The note from Merchant Securities was in response to the spudding of the Darwin well on January 31. This is the first ever deepwater well in the South Falkland Basin, while the second well drilled by Borders & Southern is targeting the Stebbing prospect.

This drill programme is being carried out further south of the area that Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) and Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) have been exploring.

In the report, Long repeated his ‘buy’ recommendation and a target price of 218.9 pence per share, representing an upside of over 200 percent to the current share price.

Long’s target price is based on and oil price of US$105 per barrel and a cash flow valuation of Darwin and Stebbing and takes into account the success chance estimates for each prospect.

Long said he likes the Darwin well the best from a risk perspective.

The second well is riskier, said Long, while noting that it is targeting 710 million barrels of recoverable oil compared to the P50 estimate – which means the oil has a 50 percent chance of being produced - of 300 million barrels in the Darwin prospect.

Long said the recoverable reserve estimate for Darwin could increase to 760 million barrels if the reservoir is full of oil from the gas-oil contact to the spill point.

“The wells being drilled by Borders & Southern are considered risky, even by the standards of exploration risk. We have incorporated our best estimate of the geological risks into our target price,” said Long.

The analyst also noted that the wells are targeting two structural traps, which are considered to present lower risk than stratigraphic traps when exploring in frontier basins.

The company is fully funded for the drilling campaign, which is estimated to cost US$150 million.

The results of the Darwin well are expected in mid-March, while the Stebbing results will likely be available in April.

Proselenes - 09 Mar 2012 05:02 - 155 of 1086

Greece deal done, should be a strong blue day ahead, hopefully lots of buying of BOR and FOGL ahead.

Rig is still on location with DP turned on and one assumes, drilling ahead !! :)

Proselenes - 10 Mar 2012 00:57 - 156 of 1086

Mirabaud comment :

.........Seven years after being awarded the acreage, Borders & Southern is on the cusp of finding out if the wait has been worthwhile. The Darwin exploration well spudded on 1 February and is targeting a potential 760 million barrels of oil – the likely 45 days of operations would see the drill bit reach the reservoir in early March, with an announcement expected by the middle of the month. As expected, Borders’ share price has ticked up over the past weeks and months in anticipation and, although mindful of the somewhat binary nature of pure exploration plays, we like the acreage and the management, and are confident that Borders has the technical understanding to unlock the potential of the basin. With the Darwin prospect alone worth £11/shr, we rate this stock as a BUY, with a price target of 150p............

Proselenes - 10 Mar 2012 04:05 - 157 of 1086

I am going to take a guess that when the RNS comes out, they will say that there were problems which have been overcome and that the new time for expected results is mid April and that the current status is drilling ahead.

Proselenes - 10 Mar 2012 08:05 - 158 of 1086

Based on my keen eye, which is very likely wrong :

I think they re-spudded on March 3rd, and 45 days from there gives mid April, which is why I suggest mid April for the results now.

The rig moved basically 60 metres SSW on 3rd March and has been rock solid with dynamic positioning on in its new location since then - indicating drilling is ongoing, meaning today would be day 7 of drilling since re-spud.

BOP is said to have delayed things and then an issue with something after that has led to where it is now. BOP looks accountable for at least 14 days of drill time lost in Feb - which will not be at the cost of BOR, it is the rig owner.

So the basic effect of everything is that, if rumours are true :

The drill is ongoing.
Darwin target same as it was before.
Teething problems with the rig and equipment overcome after its trip from Greenland.
Most of the delay down to BOP problems - so no cost to BOR.
Something went wrong which caused a re-spud to occur - possibly BOP related.

Results will be 4 weeks later than originally planned.


Its all conjecture and speculation until actual news comes - but thats my opinion on where things are.

required field - 10 Mar 2012 10:41 - 159 of 1086

Agreed....not bad guesswork.....so many of these companies drilling at the moment...BOR and AEX, RRL (RMP),GKP,PVR (LOGP),MXP.....any one of these could go ballistic at any time...

required field - 10 Mar 2012 10:42 - 160 of 1086

Agreed....not bad guesswork.....so many of these companies drilling at the moment...BOR and AEX, RRL (RMP),GKP,PVR (LOGP),MXP,BEH.....any one of these could go ballistic at any time...

Proselenes - 12 Mar 2012 11:25 - 161 of 1086

I think they have been drilling from 31st Jan to 16th Feb and then from 4th of March until today.

So far that makes at most 25 days of drilling.

So quite possible they might be into the target zone next week if what I think is happening, is happening, with logging results the week after.

Proselenes - 12 Mar 2012 11:26 - 162 of 1086

In other words - IMO - watch for any sudden spike of volume through 3 million shares from Monday 19th March onwards.

cynic - 12 Mar 2012 11:38 - 163 of 1086

volume spikes can be very misleading - cf GKP in recent weeks!

Shortie - 12 Mar 2012 12:32 - 164 of 1086

Cynic, you sound like your nursing wounds in GKP.... Easily done and you never really learn your lesson, says my itchey finger debating another long position in BOR..

cynic - 12 Mar 2012 13:09 - 165 of 1086

not really, but cross with myself for greed .... meanwhile, i am happy enough being short bor!

Proselenes - 12 Mar 2012 16:07 - 166 of 1086

The BOR board did not say the drill will take 45 days, they did not say they would announce news after 45 days.

They DID say they anticipate it will take 45 days - but anticipate is non-committal - they have never said it WILL take 45 days or they WILL update the market after 45 days.

They have clearly said when the well is complete to TD and logged, they WILL update the market.

Therefore one can reasonably expect the board of BOR to keep to their statement, and update the market when TD is reached and logging has been done - whenever that may be.


Darwin Prospect - 61/17-1 Well Spud

Borders & Southern Petroleum plc is pleased to announce that their exploration well 61/17-1 was spudded on 31st January 2012. The well is located approximately 140 km south of the Falkland Islands. B&S is the operator of the well, holding a 100% interest in licence PL018. It is the first of a two well exploration programme.

The well is designed to test the Darwin East prospect, a fault / dip closed structure with a Lower Cretaceous sandstone reservoir target. The well will investigate geophysical attributes that include a flat spot, amplitude conformance to structure and an AVO anomaly.

It is anticipated that operations will take about 45 days. A further announcement will be made once the well has reached total depth and the wireline logs have been run and their interpretation completed.

halifax - 13 Mar 2012 16:17 - 167 of 1086

down 5% so far today can we expect a duster?

cynic - 13 Mar 2012 16:34 - 168 of 1086

certainly sp continues to drift south while rkh curiously heads in the other direction

aldwickk - 13 Mar 2012 18:11 - 169 of 1086

I hold both so that even's it out

hlyeo98 - 14 Mar 2012 07:32 - 170 of 1086

The drill seem to be centred around problems with the BOP (blow out preventer) or stability of the well itself potentially requiring another well to be drilled. There are talks of bad weather ahead and therefore details and yet more talked of a duster.
The well spudded on 31st January and results were expected by March 16th (that's 2 days away). If delays are the order of the day we should get an RNS confirmation on Monday.

avsec - 14 Mar 2012 10:45 - 171 of 1086

Cynic
Your short could be a windfall by the weekend! Yquem 2000 to round off the Sunday lunch?

Proselenes - 16 Mar 2012 09:50 - 172 of 1086

There we go, as expected (by me) there were rig problems. I was wrong in that I thought 2 to 3 more weeks but the update today says 4 to 5 more weeks. Never mind, but it removes all the uncertainty and its onwards down to the Darwin target zone now - a target which has very good DHI's including the "holy grail" flat spot anomaly.

I remain that Darwin has a very high chance of success for a wildcat.

Now, one more thing, do not be shocked if FOGL drill next at Loligo, with BOR moving Stebbing backwards to be after Loligo.

For those wanting to buy in before Loligo you better be aware there is a chance, and its only a chance, that FOGL will drill next at Loligo...........

avsec - 16 Mar 2012 12:15 - 173 of 1086

Pro

"There we go, as expected (by me) there were rig problems."

That's a bit rich - it was Marky who broke the news way back on 20th February that there were problems!
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