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As the BOR result on Darwin nears (circa 24 to 34 days from now), need to remember.

FOGL have 16 billion recoverable barrels of potential in just their main present prospect list (They have over 100 potential prospects totalling a staggering over 60 billion recoverable barrels of potential). Looking closer at what the BOR drills could mean for FOGL.

Borders and Southern's Darwin prospect and drill, if good, will light up circa 2.78 Billion recoverable barrels prospective from same play type leads that FOGL have.

Borders and Southern's Stebbing prospect and drill, if good, will light up circa 1 Billion recoverable barrels prospective from the same play type leads that FOGL have.

And if they both fail FOGL still have 12 Billion barrels potential in their own play types - with first drill at Loligo for a mere 4.7 Billion recoverable barrels........ ;)




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From III


Momentum09
12:07

Rig update I just called Borders and Southern for an update on the rig. Unfortunately only half caught the name but the person (who reception put me through to) appeared well informed. I firstly thanked him (as part of the Borders team) for getting us this far.

Questions and Answers as follows:
1) Why has there been no announcement on the arrival of the drillship and the commencement of the programme?As Borders indicated in previous statements, an announcement will be made upon spudding.

2) Why has the drillship been static for several days after arriving in FI waters?Due to normal process of loading and unloading. A lot of loading activity taking place.

3) Previously Borders indicated that spudding would occur by the end of January, is this still the expectation?Slight hesitation on the answer but I think the answer is still yes. I suggested it may be “give or take” a few days and the Borders person was more comfortable with this.

4) Is the cost covered under the fixed mobilisation cost or is the rig “on-hire”?This is still part of the mobilisation process and mobilisation cost. To be clear no new information was released during my brief conversation. However,

I am now comfortable that we are broadly on schedule, are not incurring any unnecessary costs whilst the drillship is “idle” and there are no significant delays or problems.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/38300/fridays-most-followed-sirius-minerals-falkland-oil-and-gas-borders-southern-de-la-rue-creston-hornby-orchid-developments-0000.html


............Falkland Oil and Gas (LON:FOGL) also emerged among the most actively discussed companies on bulletin boards. Investors were focused on the upcoming drilling campaign by fellow Falklands operating firm Borders & Southern (LON:BOR), which will target the Darwin prospect.

Darwin is similar to several prospects owned by FOGL including Inflexible and Thulla. Should the first well targeting Darwin be a success, it will significantly de-risk FOGL’s prospects ahead of its drilling programme, which will kick off once the Leiv Eiriksson rig is released by Borders & Southern.............

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Rig is on the move now, heading off to Darwin to get into location and ready to spud for BOR.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/shipdetails.aspx?MMSI=308243000

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Proselenes - link below for already running FOGL thread or maybe change your header to PROSELENES thread!!

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=11814#lastread

A nice little summary :




Recent Toroa drilling opened up a new deepwater play in the mid Cretaceous. In addition, the presence of the Jurassic Springhill play was confirmed. The Toroa drill derisked the Darwin prospect for BOR and also brought undoubtedly the mid-Cretaceous leads (like Scotia) into play. The next two wells will target multi-billion barrel potential in two untested plays: the Tertiary Channel play and the mid Cretaceous Fan play, the latter is analogous to the successful fan plays in West Africa, such as Ghana's Jubilee field.

The Loligo prospect is a large, shallow, stacked, Tertiary channel feature with a Class III AVO response. It has mean potential reserves (recoverable barrels) of over 4,700 MMbbls (or over 25 Tcf recoverable if gas). The Scotia prospect is a mid Cretaceous Fan play with mean reserves (recoverable barrels) over 1,000 MMboe. It has a Class II AVO response which is generally coincident with structure and sits above the mature Aptian source rock. Success in either of these prospects will open up multi-billion barrel play fairways that contain numerous 'look-alike' prospects within FOGL acreage.

To date, over USD 165 million has been spent exploring FOGL's licence areas in the form of seismic, CSEM, site surveys, studies and drilling. The forthcoming drilling programme is budgeted to cost USD 175 million.


Key Features are:

First well to target over 4,700 MMbbls or over 25 Tcf (in gas case) in a DHI supported, Tertiary prospect (Loligo);

Second well to test the Scotia mid Cretaceous fan prospect, which lies above the source rock and is supported by clear Class II AVO;

Basin entry position with large new seismic data base and 5 years to explore;

Basin contains numerous multi-billion barrel and multi-Tcf prospects and leads;

Very attractive fiscal terms, CT 26% and Royalty at 9%; rilling in 2011;

Leiv Eiriksson rig contracted for 2 wells in 2012.

Will take them another 6 months or so to sell off their Brazilian assets I think, perfect timing to then view the Falklands with Southern drilling complete and then decide if they want to buy in or not...........


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-27/anadarko-finds-oil-offshore-brazil-as-it-plans-asset-sale.html

Anadarko Finds Oil Offshore Brazil as It Plans Asset Sale
January 27, 2012, 5:54 AM EST

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Anadarko Petroleum Corp., the independent U.S. producer that plans to sell its assets in Brazil, found traces of oil at an offshore well in the country’s most productive basin.

Anadarko, based in The Woodlands, Texas, found oil at the C-M-202 block in Brazil’s Campos Basin in 82 meters (269 feet) of water, according to a posting today on the website of Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency. The discovery hasn’t yet been declared commercially viable.

Last year Anadarko said it would consider a sale of its share in Brazilian offshore blocks to help pay off debt. Demand for Brazilian exploration assets has increased over the past two years because the government hasn’t sold any new licenses since 2008. On Jan. 6 Sinochem Group agreed to buy 10 percent stakes in five deepwater exploration blocks from Perenco SA.

Anadarko has about 1 million gross acres off Brazil’s coast where it has discovered the Wahoo and Itaipu fields that have a combined potential of at least 500 million barrels of oil equivalent, the company has said. Wahoo and Itaipu are also located in the Campos Basin, where Brazil pumps 84 percent of its oil.

Anadarko has a data room open and the process is continuing, John Christiansen, a company spokesman, said today in a telephone interview from The Woodlands, Texas.

Anadarko fell 2.2 percent to $79.31 in New York. The stock has climbed 3.9 percent this year.

24 hours to go to get into position for BOR's Darwin.

Bit surprised BOR and FOGL haven't moved up that much the last few days given the progress of the rig to the first target. Here's hoping we strike the black stuff in due course.

No, I think people have become smart to that, rise up to spud and fall after.

Tom prefers FOGL by the way........ ;)


http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/penny-shares/penny-sleuth-rockhopper-falklands-oil-discovery-20500

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I have to say : very much looking forward to this campaign.....probably a year of drilling ahead of us because with a minimum of four spuds, there are bound to be sidetracks and extra wells, so this promises to be very exciting plus RKH's farmout... or whatever ......

So no news from BOR until after wireline - radio silence ahead.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201202010746015700W

1 February 2012

Borders & Southern Petroleum plc
("B&S" or "the Company")

Darwin Prospect - 61/17-1 Well Spud

Borders & Southern Petroleum plc is pleased to announce that their exploration well 61/17-1 was spudded on 31st January 2012. The well is located approximately 140 km south of the Falkland Islands. B&S is the operator of the well, holding a 100% interest in licence PL018. It is the first of a two well exploration programme.

The well is designed to test the Darwin East prospect, a fault / dip closed structure with a Lower Cretaceous sandstone reservoir target. The well will investigate geophysical attributes that include a flat spot, amplitude conformance to structure and an AVO anomaly.

It is anticipated that operations will take about 45 days. A further announcement will be made once the well has reached total depth and the wireline logs have been run and their interpretation completed.

Here we go....hoping for some updates as they progress.....

Do not think BOR will do any updates, until all is finished.

News around 30 to 35 day mark I think.

Picking up a bit of strength today, only needs to double to get to the same value as BOR..... :)

About 27 to 30 days until BOR gets to TD on their first well. Success for BOR should really blow the price of FOGL upwards, reason being many people will be long BOR but short FOGL as a hedge.

If BOR comes in they will close their FOGL shorts.

If BOR fails then some of their BOR losses will be covered by gains on FOGL shorts.

Methinks FOGL could easily go up over 100% on BOR success, simply on shorts closing and of course new buyers as a hydrocarbon system would be proven in the South Falklands Basin.

I'm in both...more in FOGL than BOR....it's a risk.....but the upside could be enormous.....so tempting that I just had to be in these.....I will kick myself if FOGL don't find anything.....BOR is a big risk but they might derisk the following drilling if they encounter hydrocarbons of any sort...gas, oil (light or heavy)....even if on the first drill it is not commercial....the sp's should react with a big possibility of discovering something afterwards.....the so called shorts and longs to counterbalance things is good way to get shafted.....

Stretching its legs upwards today.