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Xcite Energy - North Sea Heavy Oil (XEL)     

Proselenes - 22 Oct 2009 11:14

.

gibby - 10 May 2011 13:18 - 1558 of 3002

glad i didnt top up at 230
no reason for suspension - multitude of reasons for mass sell - never thought go this low - waiting for bounce signals - still waiting!!! glad i got some pic today to balance this some what - but the rns wasnt even bad!! just slightly lower than expectation

gibby - 10 May 2011 13:18 - 1559 of 3002

180 to be tested!

cynic - 10 May 2011 13:21 - 1560 of 3002

at current levels, my holding is little more than "norm" - unfortunately!
for sure there has to be a level at which the greed will overcome the fear and the shorters start closing, but where?

hlyeo98 - 10 May 2011 13:22 - 1561 of 3002

I still think some seriously bad news on the horizon.

cynic - 10 May 2011 13:25 - 1562 of 3002

it's not often you think there'll be good lol
it's certainly conceivable, especially if you are a conspiracist, that the management saw the rns as the "good news" before the "bad" at the AGM

gibby - 10 May 2011 13:25 - 1563 of 3002

doubt it hyleo

i got more 185 - had to lower avg - now bouncing

cynic - 10 May 2011 13:27 - 1564 of 3002

i don't feel brave enough any more, though you may well be right
if it wasn't for this poxy share, i'ld be having another really good day on the market, but hey ho

gibby - 10 May 2011 13:31 - 1565 of 3002

thanks - yep didnt see this coming - was a good day - most of today's good work gone in here unless it bounces beyond 226p for me here - then ok! hope you doing good elsewhere

gibby - 10 May 2011 13:31 - 1566 of 3002

wow as i wrote that gone into auction - defo bouncing

gibby - 10 May 2011 13:34 - 1567 of 3002

got it wrong twice here today - 3rd time correct - bouncing!! and put most in third time!! come on 226!!!! and beyond (one hopes!)

gibby - 10 May 2011 13:37 - 1568 of 3002

sellers going away - shorters closing

gibby - 10 May 2011 13:56 - 1569 of 3002

just another 3p to break even - a minor miracle!! lol

Proselenes - 10 May 2011 13:59 - 1570 of 3002

Well, glad I sold all some time ago at 350p to 400p levels :)

I did the right thing cynic, sold the lot for a big profit and stayed out ever since then.


This from the Sector Watcher over at FT.COM

.................
[It] doesnt look awfully good. Third party consultants TRACS have come up with 2P reserves estimates for the Bentley heavy oilfield of 28m barrels recoverable, with a further contingent resource on a best estimate basis of 87m barrels, i.e. a total of 115m barrels. Previously XEL had been talking about ultimate recoverable reserves of 160m barrels of oil on a P50 basis, ie almost 40% higher, with a P10 estimate of 235m barrels. TRACS have also provided estimated valuations for the reserves which look quite punchy $396m for the 2P case and an additional $961m for the contingent resource, translating into $14/bbl and $11/bbl respectively. These have been done on an NPV10% basis, which I think is too high for a heavy oil development in the North Sea. Typically we would assume an NPV of $11/bbl at a 10% discount rate and $7.5/bbl at 15%. In other words, even if I allow for the entire contingent resource (which is debatable), Id only get to the current market cap using the lower number. Given the risks inherent in heavy oil developments, Id be an outright seller of this.............

gibby - 10 May 2011 14:08 - 1571 of 3002

prose - well done on getting out at 350 - i did similar levels and lower - never should have got back in today - didnt think it through! out now @ 224 small loss which thankfully gained back = a little more at pace - which is now underperform - hold at best imo


interesting paragraph to take heed of

Balerboy - 10 May 2011 14:12 - 1572 of 3002

glad i put my profit into blvn and COV and not into this one for time being.,.

cynic - 10 May 2011 14:13 - 1573 of 3002

despite being smacked very hard today, i've also almost certainly made plenty here, as i have on the markets in general over the last couple of years ..... on the other hand, and no side intended, i'm glad i'm out of FI stocks; at least XEL looks as though it's got a proven commercial field

Balerboy - 10 May 2011 14:13 - 1574 of 3002

if it gets back to 250 might get out altogether.,.

Balerboy - 10 May 2011 14:15 - 1575 of 3002

what is it you tell us.......................bank profits.,.

Balerboy - 10 May 2011 14:17 - 1576 of 3002

you can sit on the naughty step and think about what you've done!!.,.

cynic - 10 May 2011 14:19 - 1577 of 3002

i do indeed, and also to cut losses
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