RNS today gives BowLeven's interim results and highlights the following:

RNS Number:2495ABowLeven Plc23 March 2006 BowLeven Plc23 March 2006

BowLeven Plc ('BowLeven' or 'the Company')
Interim results for the six months to 31 December 2005
Bow Leven, the Cameroon-focused oil & gas company listed on AIM, today announces its interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2005.

Highlights include:
* Cash of #62 million
* 3D seismic survey underway on blocks MLHP 5 and MLHP 6 of Etinde permit
* Reserves of 60.3 mmboe remain in place
* Four well drilling programme being prepared for early 2007
* Loss for the period #0.7 million
* Concentration on original strategic plan including implementation of Gas To Electricity ('GTE') Plant in Cameroon


At today's offer price of 195p, the company is valued at 57.7 million. However, they claim to have audited Resources consisting of 60.3 mmboe of Reserves and 58.2 mmboe of Contingent Resources. There is supposed to be a copy of the auditors' report on the website but I can't find it (UPDATE - have now requested this via e-mail) (NEW UPDATE - I never got a reply but the auditors' report can be found in the AIM admission document).

BLVN also has 60 million in cash, which ought to more than see it through its next lot of drilling.

This, however, is scheduled for 2007, which may be one reason why the SP is held back. But to me it still looks cheap. It is almost certainly oversold after the announcement of bad news in the latter half of last year.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23537b94-6239-11e1-872e-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1ni5RUQ7n

Courtesy of the FT.

Bowleven wilts as Dragon Oil turns away

By Michael Kavanagh

Shares in Bowleven fell by a quarter on Tuesday after Dragon Oil, which is controlled by Dubai’s state-owned Emirates National Oil Company, said it was dropping plans to bid for the Cameroon-focused oil explorer.

Dragon’s initial approach a fortnight ago for Edinburgh-based Bowleven pushed its shares up 46p, or 62 per cent, to 120p, valuing the company’s equity at £355m.


But that left Bowleven shares trading well below the high of 414p hit in January last year.

The shares gained as much as 14 per cent to hit a high of 153p on Tuesday morning amid rumours of a possible counterbidder emerging to challenge Dragon’s informal approach.

But a statement by Dragon confirming that it was no longer in talks saw Bowleven’s shares fall to close 24 per cent down on the day at 102p.

Dragon declined to comment on its reasons for withdrawing its interest, while Bowleven declined to say how far discussions had gone or any pricing levels suggested by the suitor.

Shares in Bowleven had been trading around the 80p mark since last November, amid growing concerns over its ability to fund a drilling campaign in west Africa without outside help.

The company holds five onshore and offshore blocks in Cameroon and said last month it was in discussions to raise debt finance to fund drilling aimed at delivering “homegrown production and cash flow in 2015”.

Bowleven, led by chief executive Kevin Hart, held cash of $160m at the end of last year after the disposal of assets in Gabon and a $124m fundraising at 103p a share in October. It has insisted that it can continue to pursue development plans for its Cameroon assets without the need for a takeover.

Production from Dragon’s fields in the Caspian Sea rose by a third in 2011, helping to add nearly $400m to its year-end net cash balance of $1.52bn.

A week ago, it restated its ambitions to acquire sizeable assets beyond its interests off the shores of Turkmenistan. Dragon insisted it would maintain a “disciplined approach” in pitching any firm offer for Bowleven.

Cenkos this morning

BOWLEVEN - Yesterday's announcement that Dragon Oil were no longer considering an offer for Bowleven was followed by a comment from Bowleven that no detailed discussions had been held and no due diligence carried out. Bowleven presented their investment case at the analyst's day in late January, they believe that a central fair value case can be made for Block 7 offshore Cameroon to be valued at 330pps, and that the Block 5 assets where they experienced difficulties in drilling were also very attractive now that the downhole conditions were understood. The company now needs to deliver the MOU for a gas sales agreement for Block 7 and ideally find a partner who will also see the value that can be liberated from the assets. The shares do look very cheap but have gained a reputation as somewhat "unlucky". The current price bears little relation to the underlying value and they are still a BUY.

certainly i think 95/97 should be the bottom of the hole, though it may dip below this as more hot money flees .... very much a prsonal choice asto whether one wants to try to trade this on an upswing

Cenkos is often wrong in its recommendations.

I was in as long as there was the bid factor...now ?....I'll just hold on to my remaining loss making shares but more news elsewhere....

hopefully all the nervous sells out now those who can see through the mist will be rewarded in time when the dust settles

I haven't followed this one but what was the price when the offer news hit the SP?

just look at dates of posible offer and the chart and you will find it out

research have to be done by yourself

I will help you with a chart

Looks like 75p from that chart, thanks MM.

UBS note:
"Bowleven held a Capital Markets Event in January. The company discussed in detail its plans for the development of its oil and gas resources offshore Cameroon now that the government has discussed designating the gas as feedstock for a fertiliser plant. However we still see risks to full scale development. If the appraisal/exploration risk on the 150Mbbl IF oil asset is too great and Bowleven/Vitol decide not to drill in the near term, this would heighten development, and particularly financing risks in our view. While our 113p NAV assumes some risk around the decision to drill IF-2, as well as the resultant appraisal and development success, in the event that drilling on IF is pushed back to a later stage due to uncertainty over the geological viability, our NAV would reduce towards 76p. We think that Dragon may have initially been looking at Bowleven due to the wide spread between Bowleven’s share price and the company’s illustrative valuation. We think that if a bid had proceeded, bid-ask spread could have been an issue, which might also deter other companies from approaching.
We move to setting our price target at a 10% discount to risked NAV (from 30% previously), which we increase to 113p from 97p. Despite not seeing Bowleven as a takeout candidate, we think there is a level of heightened sensitivity to M&A among the E&P sector which may contribute to inflated valuations for some time."

So it's likely to drop from this level at 96p.

false alarms always= sp falls

Back to 80p then?

probably lower

Seems that way!

75p is a sensible level

Up nearly 20%. I wonder if another t/o rumour doing the rounds?

Still in with my hundred shares :-)

From Jefferies Brokers:
"We see Bowleven as offering the most attractive value opportunity in our coverage universe. To avoid a “value trap” we think 3 key questions must be asked - 1. Is there large potential upside? 2. Does the current share price imply a sufficiently pessimistic scenario to provide strong valuation support? 3. Can the company take actions to re-rate the shares? We believe the answer to all three of these questions in Bowleven’s case is yes.
"Everybody wants a thrill...(Not) Payin' anything to roll the dice" - Bowleven's gives substantial risked and unrisked upside at attractive prices. Trading at a 53% discount to its discovered risked sum of parts, we see Bowleven as offering the most attractive valuation of its peers. We also see clear catalysts to re-rate the shares in the next 1-12 months, including notably signing gas sales agreements in Cameroon that could underpin development of their discovered resources.
Misconceptions about key value drivers. We believe the market consensus is that high gas prices and certainty on Sapele discoveries are needed to underwrite the project and the share price. We show the majority of our value sits in the lower risk IE/IF/IM discoveries and the SoP is relatively insensitive to a large range of realised gas prices. Trading at an implied <1 in 5 chance of success, we believe the financing risk has been more than fairly captured.
Dragon Oil flirtation highlights value seen by industry. While nothing came of the short flirtation Dragon Oil had with Bowleven, we believe it highlights the industry sees underpriced opportunity in Bowleven's shares.
Upside potential, downside protection and visible catalysts for re-rating make Bowleven one of our prefered exposures in European E&Ps. Our estimate of the value of its risked discovered resources alone is 198p/sh, over double the current share price. Additional upside possible if key risks of gas monetisation and project funding are addressed as we believe they can be in the next 6-9 months. The current share price reflects a highly pessimistic scenario which we see as acting as support for the shares. We believe Bowleven's 2012 program will demonstrate the underappreciated value of its assets to the market, allowing for a material re-rating.

">