Better carry on here Cynic....not in yet but very interesting....how's that bridge across to China getting on ?

if the terms of the deal have been published, then it is a simple calc ..... if not, then it is pure hype and bunkum

Quite a tricky decision at the moment. Some of my holding is in profit, some is not. Averaging over my whole holding, 29p is break even target. But maybe having POG shares at a discount price (?) would be an even better option. However, I already hold POG, so do I want more? 40p for my ORE holding would do very nicely, thank you. Cash in the bank.

rely on the "hype and bunkum" then

I have seen many share prices driven up by hype, only to fall back when reality sets in. I will put a limit sell on the system & hope that the hype triggers it before the offer price is announced.

Current sp appears very close to ORE's NAV surely some premium is required for an offer to be acceptable?

why? ..... i should imagine that ORE's NAV is totally dependant upon the market price of iron ore and the other stuff they mine, whose name i forget (used for making paint)

Ilmenite,estimated cash balances as as 31/12/08 $250m.

titanium sponge

am i being uncommonly thick even for me, but isn't ORE's sp (buy at 26) showing far to great a discount even taking into account POG's tumble this morning and that the deal has not yet been actually agreed? ..... for all that, father and son not sorting out a deal???? .... i think not

Presumably you bought ORE this morning via CFD, Cynic?
In which case will you have to cash in before the POG/ORE deal is finalised? I assume a cash profit rather than POG shares is what you are targeting?

i bought a modest number at 26, as it can all go wrong as we know ..... i think that as i have bought CFDs, i shall be obliged to cash in though i may be wrong .... not exactly sure how these things work

looks as though the deal is pretty well done at 16:1 ..... goody goody!

Under the terms of the Merger:
Aricom Shareholders will receive one fully paid New Peter Hambro Mining Share in exchange for 16 fully paid Aricom Shares

above is extracted from the latest POG rns and is the recommended offer, so not yet absolute

"Under the terms of the Merger:
Aricom Shareholders will receive one fully paid New Peter Hambro Mining Share in exchange for 16 fully paid Aricom Shares; and

each Aricom Share is valued at 36.6 pence (using the closing price per Peter Hambro Mining Share on 4 February 2009 of 585 pence); and

each Aricom share is valued at 24.9 pence (using the price per Peter Hambro Mining Share on 8 January 2009 (being the last day prior to the start of the offer period) of 398 pence."

Does this mean that the price paid will be 30.75p (averaged)? Not sure I understand why 2 different prices have been quoted.

no price; just shares at 16:1 ..... valuation is just illustration

Thanks, though many people must be considering the options. Sell out before the takeover or accept the terms. I was therefore trying to figure out where the ORE sp would rise to based on the valuation calculation. So based on the figures in my post #169, is it correct that 30.75p is the theoretical sale price & almost the max we can expect to see?

ORE must surely move in line with POG's share price, though there is currently probably a discount of some kind

Missed this one was going to buy this past week .

TMC looks like it could do more than an ORE.

ORE CFD holders will get POG shares .... check out for yourself if you don't believe me .... so as i said, ORE is a cheap way to buy POG

this morning POG is 480, so the conversion equivalent to ORE is 30 (currently offered at 27.75), the discount reflecting that the deal is not yet signed and sealed

POG (515p) From Minesite:-

February 09, 2009

As Long As Investors Are Able To Put The Past Behind Them, Peter Hambros Offer For Aricom Looks A Win-Win For Both Sides.

By Alastair Ford

At some stage you have to set a point of reference. In the case of the ongoing takeover of Aricom the point of reference was set - by the preference of both companies - at 585p per PETER HAMBRO MINING share. That was the level at which the Russian gold miners shares were trading on 4th February, the day before it announced that the offer level was likely to be one Peter Hambro share for between 15.77 and 17.14 Aricom shares. With market expectations duly set, the offer then came in at a reasonable midrange, at one-for-16. That, according to the above point of reference, values each Aricom share at 36.6p,which works out at a juicy premium of several hundred per cent for anyone who called the bottom back in November, when Aricom shares were bumping along at a lowly 6p each.
Of course, you can the shine off that number in any number of ways. For one thing, almost as soon as the share exchange ratio was announced to market Peter Hambro Mining then revealed that it had raised over 60 million at 450p per share, with key directors participating in the fundraising. Bam! Peter Hambro Minings shares plunged back towards the levels at which the directors and the big money bought in. And, bam! the offer for Aricom looked almost immediately the poorer.

Another way to the shine off the offer is simply to remind anyone concerned that all the big money came into Aricom at 70p. No need to rub it in, but hundreds of millions of dollars poured into Aricom at the height of the boom for the express purpose of developing two massive iron ore projects that will not now, for the immediate future at least, get built. Even on the 585p Peter Hambro share price, the investors who came in at this level have, as things stand, lost close on half their money. And at the time of writing, Peter Hambros share price was actually 499p, so the losses actually amount to more. Aricom chief Jay Hambro concedes that Peter Hambro Mining shares will need to go well over 1,100p before all the investors he brought in during that blaze of boom time optimism and glory back in 2007 will make good their losses.

Still, on the plus side, Peter Hambro shares have hit that sort of level before, and indeed, gone much higher. In the aftermath of the fundraising Peter Hambros shares may languish at the 500p mark for a while, but actually the trick the company has pulled off leaves it looking very well positioned indeed. As an Aricom shareholder, you could do worse than nuzzle up to the bosom of a new parent which has a target of 500,000 ounces of gold production in its sights, in a strong gold price environment, and with costs looking relatively low. With this latest fundraising Peter Hambro Mining has cleared its decks of debt, and removed virtually all financing risk. The Russian discount remains, of course, but then Aricom suffered that too. Londons analyst community, often split on partisan lines between supporters of Randgold and supporters of Peter Hambro, are now beginning to shift their allegiance back to Peter Hambro, as FTSE-100 tracker funds push Randgolds valuation beyond reasonable levels. With Aricoms hundreds of millions of dollars on its balance sheet, on the other hand, Peter Hambro now looks undervalued.

And so what if there are a few ways to take a shine off the deal? There are a few ways to put a gloss on it too. Try this from Jay Hambro: most companies with development projects have lost around 90 per cent of their value in the crash of the last few months. This deal crystallizes the drop in Aricom shares at something in the region of 50 per cent, depending on which point of reference you use 585p, todays price, or the 398p price also quoted by the two companies as being the last closing price of Peter Hambro Mining before the offer price commenced. That last puts a value on each Aricom share of just under 25p. But whichever you use, that drop in value from the 70p where the big money came in still significantly outperforms the market.

Then theres the strength the enlarged group offers to both sets of shareholders. Sure, the equity money that comes in with Aricom is now be earmarked to cover Peter Hambro Minings debt rather than for the construction of the Garinskoye and K&S iron ore projects. But Aricom was only halfway to funding these in any case, and in what looks to be a new financial order the enlarged Peter Hambro Mining probably stands a better chance of getting them funded into production, supported as it is by cash flow and the consequent greater flexibility in the timing of development decisions. Theres some feeling inside the new emerging organization that gold will act as a source of profit during the tough times, but that come a global revival of large scale industrial activity, the iron ore assets will once again come into their own and add real value. At that point, who knows, Peter Hambro shares may just be back at over the 1,100 mark. Now thatd be a nice point of reference for all concerned.