.

chuckles - you'll soon be accused of being my brother, or worse still, my alter ego!

It wouldn't surprise me, you could do worse my boy!

Proramper, seems to have legged it for now. No doubt will be back if FOGL release a good RNS in the next few days telling everyone how clever he is. Or maybe he'll send grannyboy back to do the abuse.

no he'll say he sold out at 94p last week.,. ps brother to cynic.....I bl**dy hope not one's enough.,.

Maybe CHAR as spooked FOGL holders into selling

aldwickk - we will know everyone within 7 days.

Was it a weekend of deramping followed by a Monday morning bear raid - followed by the shorters saying a little too much to get the price down and the rumours going round the ciy (well lost, abnormal high pressure like Stebbing, string broken) - resulting in the company having to respond to the deramping/shorting by saying "NO ABNORMAL PRESSURE - ALL IS OK".

We shall know in due course - as for me - not sold and not selling - happy to wait for the Loligo results and then the Scotia drill.

Firstly, CHAR. It rose 20% (as rumours of strike come out) and then suddenly and without warning the price fell off a cliff - auction after auction with masses of AT trades and very little O trades.

In this scenario you have seen the pump - and then the dump (similar to BOR or DES or countless others which getting pumped up to suck PI's in before dumping by II's). The selling was pretty much "big boys" hence it was all AT trades.

FOGL has not had a pump up and no rumours of any strikes has come out. There was a weekend of rumours of the well had been lost (eg collapsed in, anomalous pressure problems like at Stebbing (remember Fox Davies saying Stebbing result meant it was likely FOGL would have pressure problems as well).

Yesterday appeared to be the start of the bear raid based on the weekends rumours of the well being lost, selling was slow, lots of O trades (meaning selling was mostly PI's). The CHAR duster appears to have caused people to sell as well and the selling slowly picked up speed as the morning went by - probably as margin calls come in for CHAR holders who sold FOGL - the shorters who had spent the weekend deramping and spreading rumours probably though their lucky day had come with CHAR news and likely piled in more and so set off a fall. No doubt the weekends rumours of well lost/pressure problems found its way to the city and a few there started shorting and spreading the rumours - and that set off finally the wave of selling. The was no sudden onset of massive selling like CHAR, not until the RNS come out which appears to have spooked everyone as its very similar to CHAR's one last week.

At this juncture of false rumours of well lost/pressure problems being spread more and more the company issued the RNS mentioned above - which says it is in response to "Share Price Movement and MARKET SPECULATION".

To respond to market speculation you therefore have to counter the rumours - as the rumours being spread were "Well Lost" "Pressure Problems" - the companies RNS states the well is proceeding fine, its 5 days behind schedule as "ADDITIONAL CASING" needed in the upper section, no pressure problems and logging is still to be done.

Therefore every rumour spread about the well being lost, pressure problems like Stebbing etc.. was blown away.

However, fear begets fear - and the lack of any mention of gas or oil has spooked people who saw a CHAR duster earlier in the day and all out panic selling come into play.


It could be the well is duff - nothing there.

I think the additional casing in the upper section (additional meaning "not planned for") means they had a "gas kick" above where they expected T1 to be and had to case that off before going down to where T1 was expected to be (T1 was middle section). Perhaps a sign T1 has leaked out ?

The Loligo structure relied on bottom to top migration - and the lowest target Three Bears was always the most likely for oil - the upper targets for gas.

Based on them casing off the middle section before drilling the lowest section it would suggest to me that T1 and T1 deep have failed - there has not been any positive news leak - but conversely also no negative news leak and volumes of selling in the past 2 weeks.

The bottom section (still being drilled) contains Trigg and Trigg Deep and Three Bears. Obviously this section is still being drilled and so no wireline logging has been done on any of these three targets.

Therefore there is still, imo, all to play for in the bottom section of the well - if one is to suggest the top section failed, which it may or may not, I do not know.

But, the RNS was to respond to rumours being spread about the well being lost and high anomalous pressures problems like Stebbing - and it cleared those rumours out and showed the people spreading them were telling lies (just like RKH Sea Lion "heavy oil rumours" which caused RKH to fall from 200p to 60p in a day before rebounding).


You either take the view that a bear raid and market rumours went too far on a day when CHAR shattered peoples confidence - and shorters have again proved they do not provide needed liquidity they actually cause damage to companies and to peoples finances by playing off of lies and spreading false rumours.

Or you take the view some people are well informed and know the results and its bad (but I find that hard to believe without any logging of the bottom section at least).

Anyway, holding long and strong here - Loligo duster is now in the price already - ahead is a paid for Scotia drill for a billion barrels recoverable potential and even if that fails they have 41p a share in cash left over and 2 strong farm in partners in place.

My apologies, I have generalised in my earlier post with "additional casing" as to meaning an "extra casing size" - of course additional casing run could have been made due to the cement job on the first one being no good - so a re-run was needed. So there are 2 options there, not just the one I speculated. Thats the trouble with trying to read too much into a "say nothing" RNS - the RNS was put out to counter the rumours being spread of well lost and pressure problems like Stebbing - and so it only countered those 2 lies that were being put around the place.

-----------------------

It is interesting when you look back in history - you can take an inverted view of things for fun :


RKH dropped 13% in the days leading up to Sea Lion oil discovery RNS - no rumours - no lies - no spikes.

RKH also saw the first concerted "shorting bear raid" on a Falklands stock - when rumours of "too heavy" oil were put out and the price collapsed from 200p to 60p before recovering and then good news on the oil.

DES regularly was pumped up ahead of bad news - a spike upwards/strike rumours - selling - then bad news.

BOR was pumped up ahead of Darwin results - rumours of billion barrel oil find - massive selling - then it was a small gas discovery - later condensate confirmed.

CHAR was pumped up 20% the week before last on rumours of oil - massive selling - bad news RNS comes later.


The trend of the above suggests that :

Bad news is always preceded by positive rumours and a price spike upwards - then massive selling on the spike - then the bad news is out

Good news is always preceded by no rumours or false bad rumours - price drop - then the good news is out.



Will FOGL follow the trend ? As was said in the RNS - we will all know within 7 days (well within 6 days from today now).

Interesting daily chart - although volume was higher (expected with a short attack following weekend of deramping rumours and CHAR duster news) the real volume only kicked in when the RNS was released at 13:08.

An RNS that was to reassure people the rumours of well being lost and pressure problems was just total lies being spread by shorters - actually ended up helping the shorters as everyone went into panic.

Funny old game at times this.



.

(PS, I do not know the well result - it could be bad, it could be good - the wireline logging results will be the time the fat lady sings and only then will we all know the actual results)

What a load of burble, attempting to rationalise and even put a positive spin on yesterdays antics. No idea if the next RNS will be good, poor or indifferent, but we will find out soon enough. That recovery was on decreasing volumes.

Thanks Proselenes well explained and thought out opinion which i agree with, much to the chagrin of some posters on here!.. I'l bet..

but of course you do lttle poodle
the market is rarely dramatically wrong in its reactions, so it'll be interesting to see how sp moves today ..... there is no question but that the late modest recovery yeaterday was merely bears taking juicy profit

Grannyboy, I'm in the comfortable position of lmao, you on the other hand assuming you haven't sold are crapping your poodle pants

Pass the pooper scooper.

Wow, nearly 1m traded in the first 10 mins. Gonna be a bumpy day!

Well explained Prosels....thanks....

Interesting day Harry......As long as i am concerned it’s been a tight ship

Sorry to disapoint the two tweedle dee's, but as i've stated previously i'm comfortable with my holding, but it's always nice to know what kind and thoughtful posters there are at others losing money, and the pleasure they obtain from others misfortune..

But i supose thats the name of the game, and the society we've turned into...

I would not be surprised to see this rocket back up to 90p or more.. on an oil rumour.....prior to results

Until wire logging has taken place no one is any of the wiser

Personally, I think the upper targets have failed (T1 and T1 deep). Also possible based on that Trigg/Trigg Deep failed.

The only one left is Three Bears - by the time the crew change happened last Friday its unlikely they were into Three Bears, so thats an unknown.

Thats just imo - the price is reacting to the potential the upper 4 targets are write off's - but the unknown is Three Bears which is supporting things at present.

Significant upside if it comes in - and not if it fails as well, should the upper 4 have failed.

I put the Chance of Success here now at less than 5% - but holding through as the attention now goes to the Scotia well.

Got to start selling a few other shares now and getting ready to buy in FOGL on what looks to be a very likely duster RNS to come, if Three Bears fails - imo.

If Three Bears does not fail then it will go to a top up.

(and yes, I did say the "very likely duster RNS" up above - please note)


Thats all IMO of course, DYOR, NAG !!!!!!!!!!!!