.

My apologies, I have generalised in my earlier post with "additional casing" as to meaning an "extra casing size" - of course additional casing run could have been made due to the cement job on the first one being no good - so a re-run was needed. So there are 2 options there, not just the one I speculated. Thats the trouble with trying to read too much into a "say nothing" RNS - the RNS was put out to counter the rumours being spread of well lost and pressure problems like Stebbing - and so it only countered those 2 lies that were being put around the place.

-----------------------

It is interesting when you look back in history - you can take an inverted view of things for fun :


RKH dropped 13% in the days leading up to Sea Lion oil discovery RNS - no rumours - no lies - no spikes.

RKH also saw the first concerted "shorting bear raid" on a Falklands stock - when rumours of "too heavy" oil were put out and the price collapsed from 200p to 60p before recovering and then good news on the oil.

DES regularly was pumped up ahead of bad news - a spike upwards/strike rumours - selling - then bad news.

BOR was pumped up ahead of Darwin results - rumours of billion barrel oil find - massive selling - then it was a small gas discovery - later condensate confirmed.

CHAR was pumped up 20% the week before last on rumours of oil - massive selling - bad news RNS comes later.


The trend of the above suggests that :

Bad news is always preceded by positive rumours and a price spike upwards - then massive selling on the spike - then the bad news is out

Good news is always preceded by no rumours or false bad rumours - price drop - then the good news is out.



Will FOGL follow the trend ? As was said in the RNS - we will all know within 7 days (well within 6 days from today now).

Interesting daily chart - although volume was higher (expected with a short attack following weekend of deramping rumours and CHAR duster news) the real volume only kicked in when the RNS was released at 13:08.

An RNS that was to reassure people the rumours of well being lost and pressure problems was just total lies being spread by shorters - actually ended up helping the shorters as everyone went into panic.

Funny old game at times this.



.

(PS, I do not know the well result - it could be bad, it could be good - the wireline logging results will be the time the fat lady sings and only then will we all know the actual results)

What a load of burble, attempting to rationalise and even put a positive spin on yesterdays antics. No idea if the next RNS will be good, poor or indifferent, but we will find out soon enough. That recovery was on decreasing volumes.

Thanks Proselenes well explained and thought out opinion which i agree with, much to the chagrin of some posters on here!.. I'l bet..

but of course you do lttle poodle
the market is rarely dramatically wrong in its reactions, so it'll be interesting to see how sp moves today ..... there is no question but that the late modest recovery yeaterday was merely bears taking juicy profit

Grannyboy, I'm in the comfortable position of lmao, you on the other hand assuming you haven't sold are crapping your poodle pants

Pass the pooper scooper.

Wow, nearly 1m traded in the first 10 mins. Gonna be a bumpy day!

Well explained Prosels....thanks....

Interesting day Harry......As long as i am concerned it’s been a tight ship

Sorry to disapoint the two tweedle dee's, but as i've stated previously i'm comfortable with my holding, but it's always nice to know what kind and thoughtful posters there are at others losing money, and the pleasure they obtain from others misfortune..

But i supose thats the name of the game, and the society we've turned into...

I would not be surprised to see this rocket back up to 90p or more.. on an oil rumour.....prior to results

Until wire logging has taken place no one is any of the wiser

Personally, I think the upper targets have failed (T1 and T1 deep). Also possible based on that Trigg/Trigg Deep failed.

The only one left is Three Bears - by the time the crew change happened last Friday its unlikely they were into Three Bears, so thats an unknown.

Thats just imo - the price is reacting to the potential the upper 4 targets are write off's - but the unknown is Three Bears which is supporting things at present.

Significant upside if it comes in - and not if it fails as well, should the upper 4 have failed.

I put the Chance of Success here now at less than 5% - but holding through as the attention now goes to the Scotia well.

Got to start selling a few other shares now and getting ready to buy in FOGL on what looks to be a very likely duster RNS to come, if Three Bears fails - imo.

If Three Bears does not fail then it will go to a top up.

(and yes, I did say the "very likely duster RNS" up above - please note)


Thats all IMO of course, DYOR, NAG !!!!!!!!!!!!

If it has failed that is two strong Class 3 AVO's failed last week - Nimrod and also Loligo.

They say Class 3 AVO's are 50/50 - looks like its 0/100 at the moment for AIM stocks in September 2012.

Getting cash ready now to buy any duster RNS fall, getting prepared.

If it's a duster, don't think there will be too much of a "mad rush" to buy in.....IMO!

However, if it drops to "Mega Lows" certainly an oportunity based on the next drill...Scotia? As I write, I notice there are a couple of big buyers........Big B.lls!

I said last week on CHAR (on ADFN), volume and price movement.

Sadly yesterday CHAR news distorted things somewhere, but todays message is clear - volume and price action say its not good news coming.

So I have to take advice from my own advice and plan for a duster, as that looks most likely result.

4.5 million volume already passed - price direction down - tells you something !!

So I am getting cash to the ready to buy any duster news, if that is the result, then it will be.

So Pro has sold his shares and now trying to get the price down so he can buy a few cheaper in case it comes up trumps but also keep money back in case its a duster so he can buy in on the cheap.

Your so false!

The question is, if its a duster then what was the CSEM/AVO response ? Was it clays ? and not sands ?