Yesterday's EVOLUTION note .........
08 November 2010
Altona Energy (ANR.L) Buy -
Heating up
A recent visit to South Australia exhibited the potential of Altonas
Arckaringa coal project. The company has good relationships with the
South Australian authorities and, we believe, is laying solid foundations
for the future. The Chinese joint venture partners are now building
critical mass in Adelaide and we expect that this stage will be completed
before the end of the year. In the meantime, considerable background
work is ongoing and we believe that the parties will be able
Valuation
We have undertaken a range of updated valuations for Altona focused on a
mixture of where we currently perceive the group and how we anticipate the project
to be developed over time. From a current 12-18 month valuation of around
35p/share we see considerable longer-term upside to 60p as the project moves
closer to production.
Recommendation
We expect that Altonas news generation is set to move up a gear in 2011 as the
company pushes ahead with the work required to complete the various studies that
will feed into a development decision. Given the nature of the Chinese joint venture
partners this may be made ahead of completion of a formal bankable feasibility
study, in which case CNOOC-NEI is required to arrange bank finance for the project.
This would ease Altonas financial requirements and potentially enhance equity
value. Against this backdrop, and with a 35p target price, we reiterate our
recommendation on the stock. Buy.
ALTONA - Evolution note