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Rig is on the move now, heading off to Darwin to get into location and ready to spud for BOR.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/shipdetails.aspx?MMSI=308243000

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Proselenes - link below for already running FOGL thread or maybe change your header to PROSELENES thread!!

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=11814#lastread

A nice little summary :




Recent Toroa drilling opened up a new deepwater play in the mid Cretaceous. In addition, the presence of the Jurassic Springhill play was confirmed. The Toroa drill derisked the Darwin prospect for BOR and also brought undoubtedly the mid-Cretaceous leads (like Scotia) into play. The next two wells will target multi-billion barrel potential in two untested plays: the Tertiary Channel play and the mid Cretaceous Fan play, the latter is analogous to the successful fan plays in West Africa, such as Ghana's Jubilee field.

The Loligo prospect is a large, shallow, stacked, Tertiary channel feature with a Class III AVO response. It has mean potential reserves (recoverable barrels) of over 4,700 MMbbls (or over 25 Tcf recoverable if gas). The Scotia prospect is a mid Cretaceous Fan play with mean reserves (recoverable barrels) over 1,000 MMboe. It has a Class II AVO response which is generally coincident with structure and sits above the mature Aptian source rock. Success in either of these prospects will open up multi-billion barrel play fairways that contain numerous 'look-alike' prospects within FOGL acreage.

To date, over USD 165 million has been spent exploring FOGL's licence areas in the form of seismic, CSEM, site surveys, studies and drilling. The forthcoming drilling programme is budgeted to cost USD 175 million.


Key Features are:

First well to target over 4,700 MMbbls or over 25 Tcf (in gas case) in a DHI supported, Tertiary prospect (Loligo);

Second well to test the Scotia mid Cretaceous fan prospect, which lies above the source rock and is supported by clear Class II AVO;

Basin entry position with large new seismic data base and 5 years to explore;

Basin contains numerous multi-billion barrel and multi-Tcf prospects and leads;

Very attractive fiscal terms, CT 26% and Royalty at 9%; rilling in 2011;

Leiv Eiriksson rig contracted for 2 wells in 2012.

Will take them another 6 months or so to sell off their Brazilian assets I think, perfect timing to then view the Falklands with Southern drilling complete and then decide if they want to buy in or not...........


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-27/anadarko-finds-oil-offshore-brazil-as-it-plans-asset-sale.html

Anadarko Finds Oil Offshore Brazil as It Plans Asset Sale
January 27, 2012, 5:54 AM EST

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Anadarko Petroleum Corp., the independent U.S. producer that plans to sell its assets in Brazil, found traces of oil at an offshore well in the country’s most productive basin.

Anadarko, based in The Woodlands, Texas, found oil at the C-M-202 block in Brazil’s Campos Basin in 82 meters (269 feet) of water, according to a posting today on the website of Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency. The discovery hasn’t yet been declared commercially viable.

Last year Anadarko said it would consider a sale of its share in Brazilian offshore blocks to help pay off debt. Demand for Brazilian exploration assets has increased over the past two years because the government hasn’t sold any new licenses since 2008. On Jan. 6 Sinochem Group agreed to buy 10 percent stakes in five deepwater exploration blocks from Perenco SA.

Anadarko has about 1 million gross acres off Brazil’s coast where it has discovered the Wahoo and Itaipu fields that have a combined potential of at least 500 million barrels of oil equivalent, the company has said. Wahoo and Itaipu are also located in the Campos Basin, where Brazil pumps 84 percent of its oil.

Anadarko has a data room open and the process is continuing, John Christiansen, a company spokesman, said today in a telephone interview from The Woodlands, Texas.

Anadarko fell 2.2 percent to $79.31 in New York. The stock has climbed 3.9 percent this year.

24 hours to go to get into position for BOR's Darwin.

Bit surprised BOR and FOGL haven't moved up that much the last few days given the progress of the rig to the first target. Here's hoping we strike the black stuff in due course.

No, I think people have become smart to that, rise up to spud and fall after.

Tom prefers FOGL by the way........ ;)


http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/penny-shares/penny-sleuth-rockhopper-falklands-oil-discovery-20500

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I have to say : very much looking forward to this campaign.....probably a year of drilling ahead of us because with a minimum of four spuds, there are bound to be sidetracks and extra wells, so this promises to be very exciting plus RKH's farmout... or whatever ......

So no news from BOR until after wireline - radio silence ahead.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201202010746015700W

1 February 2012

Borders & Southern Petroleum plc
("B&S" or "the Company")

Darwin Prospect - 61/17-1 Well Spud

Borders & Southern Petroleum plc is pleased to announce that their exploration well 61/17-1 was spudded on 31st January 2012. The well is located approximately 140 km south of the Falkland Islands. B&S is the operator of the well, holding a 100% interest in licence PL018. It is the first of a two well exploration programme.

The well is designed to test the Darwin East prospect, a fault / dip closed structure with a Lower Cretaceous sandstone reservoir target. The well will investigate geophysical attributes that include a flat spot, amplitude conformance to structure and an AVO anomaly.

It is anticipated that operations will take about 45 days. A further announcement will be made once the well has reached total depth and the wireline logs have been run and their interpretation completed.

Here we go....hoping for some updates as they progress.....

Do not think BOR will do any updates, until all is finished.

News around 30 to 35 day mark I think.

Picking up a bit of strength today, only needs to double to get to the same value as BOR..... :)

About 27 to 30 days until BOR gets to TD on their first well. Success for BOR should really blow the price of FOGL upwards, reason being many people will be long BOR but short FOGL as a hedge.

If BOR comes in they will close their FOGL shorts.

If BOR fails then some of their BOR losses will be covered by gains on FOGL shorts.

Methinks FOGL could easily go up over 100% on BOR success, simply on shorts closing and of course new buyers as a hydrocarbon system would be proven in the South Falklands Basin.

I'm in both...more in FOGL than BOR....it's a risk.....but the upside could be enormous.....so tempting that I just had to be in these.....I will kick myself if FOGL don't find anything.....BOR is a big risk but they might derisk the following drilling if they encounter hydrocarbons of any sort...gas, oil (light or heavy)....even if on the first drill it is not commercial....the sp's should react with a big possibility of discovering something afterwards.....the so called shorts and longs to counterbalance things is good way to get shafted.....

Stretching its legs upwards today.

The way it could work out is like this : BOR hit the black stuff....in commercial quantities (miracle possibly), sp soars for both parties.....BOR hit oil or gas, but not in commercial quantities but proof of a working petroleum system....good also because of a big possibility of some elsewhere so the sp should rocket or quite a good increase still the same......BOR hit nothing at all....10p drop or so followed by at least a FOGL recovery whilst drilling the following well.......this is how I see it playing out in the next few months......that's my risk evaluation.....other views most welcome....

The everly bros, come to mind.,.

The way I see it.

BOR have a duster at Darwin, then BOR down 50% to 60% and FOGL down 25%.

BOR strike at Darwin then BOR up maybe 300% to 400% and FOGL up 100% to 150%.


If you like less risk but decent gains, given the low market cap of FOGL you hold FOGL :)

A bit too much like pure gambling in that case....I'm in...but it's just like Rockhopper before their strike...it was risky.....so is this it seems...