Alkane Energy - Back to 100p
Says Zak Mir of Zaks-TA.com
The stock market is full of hyperbole, especially from tipsters. I chanced upon Alkane Energy today and my immediate reaction was that it is the best stock chart I have ever seen.

This may sound somewhat melodramatic, but I do not think that it is an exaggeration. As all traders know (including Nick Leeson if you are reading), the way to make real money is by betting the bank on the really big calls. That is the aim of my site. Nick, if you're still there, now is the time to go long of Alkane Energy - it has to be a better bet than a Nikkei arbitrage.

Although a chartist is fully allowed to ignore the fundamentals and look purely at the technicals, the fundamental background to Alkane is a company that declared losses of 284,000 pounds in its last set of results versus 20 million pounds in the previous year. This is a great recovery situation just in financial terms and the hopes of the bulls are carried in the form of a very extended base on the chart below 20p that was in place for nearly three years. The charting rule is that the longer the base, the bigger and more powerful the eventual breakout. This would imply that we are looking at the possibility of a full return to the highs seen at the start of the decade towards 100p.

Only an end of day close below the 10 week moving average on the weekly chart at 19p would even begin to cast doubt on the upside. The minimum expected target in the near term would be the 40 week moving average now running through 40p.

i'm interested to see what results are like?- why would gartmore make such a substantial holding increase after this news AND before results. maybe the results will be more optimistic?. brewin dolphin estimated 700k profit- obviously we won't get that BUT are they in profit for the first time?>

Profit warning from Alkane
MoneyAM
Alkane Energy said its full year resutls will be below expectations and that it expects to show a pre-exceptional operating loss.

However, the outlook for mine gas power generation in the UK is 'excellent,' it said in a trading update.

The economic and political climate remains very favourable for the renewable electricity and carbon credits markets in which Alkane is a growing force, it said. Both these markets are expected to be strong drivers for sales and service over the next few years.

Alkane Energy builds, operates and services climate change reduction and renewable energy plants.

I'm sorry to upset the equilibrium with this post. I feel sorry for Alkane holders, I've been there before with disappointing results from Tadpole and superscape before, always promising the earth "this time". They might go up, but you don't need the hassle really. There's so many companies out there making profits or hidden gems on low PEs that you don't need to invest in such companies, you don't owe them anything, all these companies talk about product innovations etc but what about profits, that's all investors should be interested in. I'm sorry to come onto your board and be negative, i have no interest in shorting alkane or buying it or anything, I just get fed up with these companies that promise the earth and
deliver losses.

If you look at the forward statement in the preceeding post it's very nebulous. Very general relating to the whole renewable climate as opposed to their performance specifically. If it's going to be a winner then you'll have plenty of upside when it starts to make profits and get stronger you don't need to take the risk beforehand.

It may go up now, a dead cat bounce?, but I wouldn't place too much emphasis on Gartmore's holding. Gartmore are being put up for sale as we speak by their American owners because they've been doing so badly. Gartmore also had large holdings in Langbar and Superscape, fund managers can be as stupid as the rest of us.

correct me if i'm wrong but didn't UBS increase their holding last week AFTER this news and before results on the 22nd. now their not doing badly are they!.

long term hold for me!. to confirm my belief increased holding @23p, a level at which imo vastly undervalues the company!.

yes maybe
but then UBS bought about a 'trillion' shares in Fortune Oil at 9p a year or so ago

and that hasnt done them any good at all

not looking that great atm- imo any buyers are waiting to results to see how bad or not so bad they are?. that is the question.

;

Have you all deserted? Results not that bad. Plenty of buying today!!

yes- not as bad as i thought- a 200k loss is better than a 700k loss. so heading in the right direction albeit slowly. in profit next results is my target!.

Hi Saintserf

I understand where you come from, but what shares do you have in mind, which are in the same business, but perform better? we have seen Biofuels blow up as well, having also a rolercoster of a ride.
would like to hear your views
FT

The shares I'm thinking of are not in the same business, if by that you mean alternative energy. I'm not an ethical investor or too bothered about certain sectors. In fact I'm a bit reluctant to offer any "tips" since I've just sold Marchpole at a loss today, which was a mistake buying over the short term.

I dunno, I suppose shares with low PEs but good earnings growth, higher than the PE, would be VPC, venture productions, AQP, ADN, long term boring one would be ENN although I sold that last week. ANything with a good chart going up gently. I like the mid-cap oils but don't know how much more they'll run. Papal Power's done some good postings on the Leadcom site, that looks like an interesting share, but it's maybe gone up too much. I wouldn't like to tip any of these shares. DYOR, but they're all making profits at least. It seems to me that the problem with the alternative energy sector is that in any many cases it'll take a while before they're up and running near full capacity and then you'll need some time before becoming profitable. I might be wrong I think Renova's done well if that's how you spell it.

bloody hell- will the rot ever stop!- or has this one gone?.

Hi Saintserf
fair comment well argued.
I am out of Alkane and will take some time to go back in. Still expect plenty of sellers reducing holdings.
enjoy your day

U think its time to get out ? has the fall in price not been an overreaction to the poor results, this company s in a great sector with huge potential and I believe in time will reap investor rewards.

the results weren't as expected but i do not think they justify a 60 % fall in sp since they released rns saying would not meet target. they still reduced losses and are nr flat in trading p&l , so a profit next figures is what i am expecting, just delayed in delivery.

all new innovative technology is bound to have initial problems, these imo are a bargain at these levels and increased last week!.

this is nothing- i would expect at least 30p short term!. and not that impressed at that.

VOLUME PICKING UP!

I think it is time to get back in... agree that the market may have overeacted a bit, got 15000 at 20p each... time will tell

short term Tonker may be volatile but if they deliver a profit at next results which is proposed albeit delayed i would hope for progression inc further acquisitions as expected increasing output year by year.

med/ long term play for me!.