I hold these stock.

DYOH (do your own homework.)

To-day there was a slight drop in price, but number of analysts are giving favourable reports.

What triggered my interest was better than expected results and if I am right looking at charts it shows an inverted head and shoulders. Hopefully a good sign. Also the current rate of Share price growth is about 90% pa over the last 5weeks. This is unlikely to continue indefinitely but SP could hit 850p over next few weeks.

To-day at close, there were some large buys of about 5million shares. 40million approx.

Another trigger for me was the following which should increase earnings.

Aviva to form JV in Taiwan with First FinancialAFX
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Aviva PLC, the UK's largest insurer, said it has entered into a joint venture with First Financial Holding Co Ltd to sell insurance and pension products in Taiwan. The joint venture company, First-Aviva, will distribute long-term savings and pension products in Taiwan through an exclusive agreement with First Financial's flagship unit, First Commercial Bank. Aviva, which will have a 49 pct stake in the joint venture, added that the initial paid up capital of the new company will be 34 mln stg.First Commercial Bank is Taiwan's second largest bank network, with five mln retail customers, it added.TFN.newsdesk@thomson.comkkb/faj/slm




Date: Wednesday 25 Apr 2007
LONDON (ShareCast) - If the message gets home that Aviva will not bid for Prudential, the stock should rebound strongly, especially if Aviva can sustain its current impressive performance. There is still work to be done but, at 794.5p, the shares are a strong buy says the Independent.
Date: Tuesday 24 Apr 2007
LONDON (ShareCast) - Aviva stood out among the risers on a tough day for blue chip stocks. The life insurer posted an upbeat first quarter statement with brokers pleased with the numbers.



DYOH

Trading statement tomorrow?

Yes Harrycat, if I was a brave investor I would have brought today before trading statement, but better play safe and read the update first.

Topped up this morning after reading trading update, which was ahead of forecast, also saw a good interview last night on Sky with Andrew Moss whichgave me some confidence.

AV. the leading gainer today up to 304p which is 17%, hopefully after digesting the 3rd quarter trading update, the conclusion will be that negative sentiment has been overdone. I noted that AV. said they have 1.3bn of capital reserves and that another 20% fall in stockmarkets would reduce this by 400m.

And when Andrew Moss was interviewed he said that sales had been very strong in August and stronger again in September. It's the first time I have seen him interviewed, and he came across as very level headed and a safe pair of hands.

Finished up 25% today, not bad............

If you think about it, it's only in the last 4 to 6 weeks that a major company with such a large one day movement is accepted as normal. Well nearly normal.

Good to see the directors buying today at 275p, this was the first opportunity to buy after the closed period.

Looking at where the sp has settled now, we are still in the bear channel from February 2007. Would need to see a break out over 560p before we could look at a new trend. The spike down below 250p is by far the largest spike seen in 10 years either way, it could have been a Kangaroo tail which could signal that a lack of volume to support the sp. But sometimes these can mark a change in sentiment.

But in conclusion I think we will stay in the bear channel for another 3 to 4 months, before the huge financial stimulus across the developed world starts to feed through.

With the sp down to 330p today we are just below the lower bear channel at 350p, so we should know soon if we are still in this channel.

Bought a few of these myself this morning, chart looks pretty good with a reasonable breakout from what looks a base.

Broker BUY forecasts out yesterday...

Aviva PLC

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

WestLB
16-12-08 BUY 33.00 34.65

SG Securities [D]
16-12-08 BUY 40.56 36.31 73.68 39.57

Current sp 282p. Nearing it's 1 year low, with up-side to 400p lately. Well defined resistance level, support level slightly more tenuous.

Plenty to plough through here.

Sorry don't have the time this morning to post individual links.

See summary of trading update below...........

Insurance giant Aviva stated today that capital and liquidity remains strong and it will maintain its dividend policy. The group reported global long term savings sales up 1% to 40.3bn, or down 7% in local currency terms.

Life and pensions sales were up 11% to 36.3 billion (up 2% on local currency basis), with sales figures reported on Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) basis for the first time.

Aviva reported its highest ever UK life and pensions sales at 11.9bn, while in Europe life and pension sales were up 8% to 17bn, buoyed by the strength of the euro (down 7% on local currency basis).

In North America the group's target to double sales in three years achieved a year ahead of plan, up 57% (up 45% on local currency basis).

For the Asia Pacific region, life and pension sales were up 8% (down 1% on local currency basis), led by 66% growth in China (up 40% on local currency basis).

Aviva said its capital and liquidity position remains strong, with an estimated 2bn IGD surplus as at 31st December 2008.

The group dividend policy remains unchanged.

Andrew Moss, Aviva's CEO, commented: 'In a year of unprecedented turbulence, our sales have continued to grow. Operating across 27 markets with a range of products and varied distribution has served us well and has brought us an additional real benefit from currency appreciation.

'Growth in developing economies such as Asia and central and eastern Europe has offset difficult conditions in more mature markets such as Ireland and Italy.

'Our capital position remains strong and Aviva continues to be attractive to customers seeking security for their long-term savings.

'Our priorities are to maintain our financial strength and continue to transform Aviva for the benefit of customers and shareholders'

Another strong update which follows on from 28th October. Then av. bounced off support at 260 to 440 resistance. Already up 6% today, so looking for an attempt on resistance at least.

Screaming buy at these levels given the update on 04.02.09 and news on banks over the last few days. Results will be the catalyst next week for a run back to 4.

MoneyAM
"Insurance giant Aviva said today IFRS operating profit was up 4% to 2.297bn in 2008 but it slumped to an IFRS loss after tax of 885m in the year. Net asset value per share was 416p. The total dividend per share was maintained at 33p.

Aviva said it had a solvency surplus of 2bn at 31st December 2008.

Life and pensions sales were up 11% to 36.283bn and the general insurance result improved, with a combined operating ratio on target at 98%.

340m of 500m 2010 cost savings target have been achieved.

Andrew Moss, CEO, commented: 'In a tumultuous year, our underlying business has shown great resilience. Operating profits are up and we have maintained our dividend. Bottom line earnings have been affected by investment markets which have predictably created significant unrealised losses during the year.

'Aviva remains financially strong. We've undertaken a thorough review of the value of our assets and liabilities, and have made cautious provision for future losses so that we are in good shape to withstand the ongoing volatility and uncertainty in world markets. Maintaining our capital strength has been a priority for us and remains so this year.

'Meanwhile we continue to transform Aviva for the future. In these markets only the fittest will emerge as winners. Our increased share of the UK life and pensions market in 2008 is a good example of a market where we have growing competitive advantage. Our strategy is well-suited to current markets and our geographic diversity and composite model continues to deliver for us.'

In a subsequent video interview Moss said: 'Whichever way you measure it, on an IFRS basis or an MCEV basis, our operating profits are up.'

'I think that's a pretty resilient performance given the economic conditions we've seen over the last 9 or 12 months. The other thing the market is interested in at the moment is the capital position of the Group. And I think we've given further reassurance on that today with our statutory solvency buffers still at 2bn. And with that capital position we've also been able to maintain the dividend, based off the strong IFRS operating results'."

Results looked strong with company in a stong position to come through recession stronger, yet the market thinks different with price down to 338p. The only negative was the loss before tax of 800m odd, which is fair enough when you look at there conservative approach to the balance sheet.

Maybe something else lurks unseen in the report that we are unaware of ?

At 238p it looks tempting, if the market has over-reacted.............IF.......

Well my target of 150p is coming into view there must be other losses they have not mentioned.

Dont buy they have further to fall wait before the next buy signal.

Think you are right mitzy, analysts don't like the way av. have reported results.

see below

Some analysts reacted angrily to the way that Aviva reported today's results, noting that the strengthening of the reserves was booked as an exceptional item and so excluded from operating profits or tests of its capital efficiency.

One said: "The reporting of this company is shameless. Very shoddy."

Ex-divi date is 25th March '09. Probably worth having, particularly at this price (currently 197p)