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East Regeneration - Telford Homes (TEF)     

hangon - 24 Apr 2008 18:05

I don't think their name "Telford" indicates where they operate - East London according to Shares.

The current sp 1.50 is more-or-less the price prior to the Olympic Bid, which probably gave the sp a boost, withouit looking to far to the cost involved.

It's been all downhill for the last 12-months - Oooo deary.
The yield isn't good, despite the fall.

mentor - 18 May 2016 08:53 - 160 of 260

A very good view and important factors of this note from Shore capital report. Near full extract from executive summary of Nov 16,

" Telford Homes has raised £50m of new capital that will be used to expand, accelerate and prolong growth. The capital base is expanded and with continuing confidence in Telford’s local markets in London, we see greatly enhanced prospects. The development pipeline already extends out to FY2024F and contains up to £1.5bn of gross development value (GDV), 6.5x current year revenue, and via the new funds we expect the pipeline to expand further from FY2017F. This, along with close to £700m of forward sales, gives Telford by far the greatest earnings visibility in the sector. Coupling the now substantial capital base with still strong market opportunities for securing new sites and continued strong buyer demand, we see great value here with fair value still at 490p. The rating shows an FY2019F PER of 7.5x and P/NAV of 1.14x meaning this stock presents material upside in a sector otherwise struggling to show any.

Long visibility, sustainable growth and FY2017F forecasts raised: The pipeline of sites to bring through to development already stands at c.£1.5bn, having been boosted by c.£500m via the £23m United House acquisition. Now that £50m of additional resource is available to the group, we can see this expanding even further as Telford looks to identify sites within the next 12 months and to commit the new capital fully within two years.

A still bullish market climate in Telford’s London: The media seeks to portray high risk in London residential but we still see great opportunity for developers in more affordable areas. Demand still heavily outweighs supply,

Widening the sales channel while also de-risking: Telford has opened a new sales channel: the institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We see this becoming an important part of the London housing market, helping to bridge the supply gap; it is good for a developer to align with this new market segment, in our view.

Raising growth capital – old school but the right call: While the volume house builders are reducing capital by making large returns to shareholders, raising equity capital for expansion is a long-established sector trend. For Telford, we believe it is the right call for the Board to have made at this point in the market.

Still an under-valued stock: We have historically valued Telford on the same basis as the volume national builders but this increasingly feels wrong. We see unparalleled visibility, a clear long-term strategy, a solid focus on growth and, in our view, still highly favourable local market dynamics. We still see fair value here at 490p and believe that the stock is under-valued on both earnings and NAV bases in a sector that otherwise appears stretched. "

mentor - 18 May 2016 10:10 - 161 of 260

After a shaky start is now looking like is ready for business and up by 5p
with support prices at bid side as well as MMs upping their prices not only the order book placed orders.
order book medium strong, depth 20 V 16

mentor - 18 May 2016 12:27 - 162 of 260

The bounce is on as the shares keep moving forward now by 10p
order book still positive DEPTH of 20 v 17

cynic - 18 May 2016 13:10 - 163 of 260

posts 151, 157 and others not so dumb after all it would seem

jimmy b - 18 May 2016 13:12 - 164 of 260

Moving back up nicely , do you hold cynic ?

cynic - 18 May 2016 13:36 - 165 of 260

sure do boss ...... in my sipp as they have been for a little while

mentor - 18 May 2016 15:40 - 166 of 260

How they have performed during the last month
TEF with today's large rise is moving up the from being the worse performer

p.php?pid=legacydaily&epic=L^TEF&type=1&

mentor - 19 May 2016 09:25 - 167 of 260

the reason of being weak before that date...........

LIONTRUST

sold up to 17th May 145K
gone under 5%
now 3,633,943 - 4.855%

mentor - 19 May 2016 10:14 - 168 of 260

mood changing? ...........

https://www.theguardian.com/business/marketforceslive/2016/may/18/housebuilders-gain-more-ground-after-taylor-wimpey-update

TW's assertion that they can pay silly divis even through a downturn has finally woken up a few investors who had assumed at the first whiff of downturn the builders would pull in their horns. IN short the sector is doing very well and can weather a modest downturn without adjustment of divi payments. Safety margins are in place for the sector unlike 2008.

If you recall TW went zero divi for years and did a big share dilution in the crisis and has been playing it safe alongside all the major builders ever since. That is why there is such a large market opportunity for a nimble aggressive player like TEF in East London.

I'm afraid TEF's dilution even though it was strategic spooked the market short term as the sector spooked the market in 2009 with the emergency fund raising dilutions from the majors. Gave placements in the sector a tainted feel to them that has not entirely evaporated. As Keynes would say "animal spirits" not necessarily logical evidence based investing.

mentor - 20 May 2016 15:40 - 169 of 260

this afternoon is having another go and moving over last Wednesday intraday high

currently bid 346.25 Ask: 347.00 Change: +9.00 (+2.66%)

jimmy b - 20 May 2016 15:40 - 170 of 260

Another good day for TEF.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=TEF&Size=

mentor - 23 May 2016 15:38 - 171 of 260

another good day once it kept going allway takes a bit of time at the start of the day

351.00p Change: +7.25 (+2.11%)

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=TEF&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=TEF&Size=

cynic - 23 May 2016 16:14 - 172 of 260

always happy to see a positive day here, but volume is pathetic = <100k

mentor - 23 May 2016 16:37 - 173 of 260

and yet a higher UT 353p

16:35:22
353.00p
9,105

jimmy b - 31 May 2016 08:11 - 174 of 260

Telford Homes has exchanged contracts for the sale of its Carmen Street, London, property to M&G Real Estate for net consideration of GBP63.2 million.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5350670

jimmy b - 31 May 2016 15:52 - 175 of 260

Doing well again today.

cynic - 31 May 2016 16:04 - 176 of 260

FEVR aren't too shabby either :-)

I have both

jimmy b - 24 Jun 2016 11:13 - 177 of 260

Great results this morning plus increased Divi is why this has not fallen as much as other house builders

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5366255

Claret Dragon - 24 Jun 2016 11:33 - 178 of 260

Not a fan of tower blocks. Spent most of the 70,s and 80's gettıng rid of them only to go back to ıt.

cynic - 24 Jun 2016 11:43 - 179 of 260

yup - only down 15%!!
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