http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

The thing that gets me about this stock and many others in the mining sector , is that we are getting so many buy recommendations even though the stocks are continuing to fall !!

I think that most broker recommendations are based on forward projections with an indeterminate time scale, but are not really intended for short term trading. Even though the sp is currently down, I assume that they are tipping POG as a good investment over the medium term.

I guess so, but it really is misleading, especially when they have already fallen so much. It should be one hell of a rebound when it finally does come .

SocGen comment today:
"In our 11 April 2013 downgrade of gold equities Link: Gold stocks downgraded, we slashed our TP for POG by 40%, but we did not downgrade the share based on our positive view of the POX project and some restructuring in January which reduced the potential liability related to its iron ore subsidiary, IRC. As it turns out, even that 40% cut was insufficient as the gold price crashed just a week later, and as a highly leveraged producer, Petropavlosk’s share price plummeted from 197p on April 11 to 134p with it. With the near term risk to the gold price now to the downside, we are downgrading Petropavlovsk from Buy to Sell with a new price target 110p (previously 275p).
One thing seems clear. With sentiment turning negative on the gold price, POG looks to be one of the stocks most exposed as a high cost producer with heavy debt. We reaffirm our view that the POX project meets key hurdles, as we detail in these pages with a global benchmarking exercise for 12 POX mines and projects. We still believe the project is a positive catalyst for the group, but it is a catalyst that has again been deferred. The plant was initially planned for early 2013, then pushed back into H2, and a week ago it was deferred again until 2015. This in itself may not justify our downgrade, but there are other headwinds. Assuming spot ($1,375) for the balance of the year, the average gold price for 2013 would be $1,434/oz. On that basis after accounting for the hedge contracts and the $150m capex deferral, net debt would decline by only c.$80m – less than one year’s interest payment. So while we see little risk of a breach in debt covenants, this looks like running to stand still. Finally, with near term downside risk to the gold price, earnings downgrades and further restructuring/delays to POX cannot be ruled out.
We calculate our TP using an adjusted NPV to our core valuation, which is itself based on life-of-mine reserves/resources. For Petropavlovsk we still calculate an adjusted NPV of 250p/sh. Based on the historical P/NPV trading range (0.5x to 0.8x) we now apply a P/NPV multiple of 0.45x (previously 1.1x) for our TP of 110p and TSR of -10.6%, which includes a 12m forecast dividend of 7p."

Good work Harry.
How are you keeping these days ?

you'll have skinny crying harry.,.

None of the brokers seem to have a clue with this one! If I wasn't already in, I certainly wouldn't be buying, but as I am, it's just a case now of trying to average down, hopefully when the sp is trending up.
I think skinny is already crying over his new Windows 8! Don't suppose POG will upset him too much in the short term, but they need to pull their digit out and at least offer us a decent divi to offset the naff sp.
How am I keeping? As I don't spreadbet, all my efforts go into chosing stocks for ISA & dealing. The ISA is fine, with less risky stocks and decent yields. The dealing account is getting through far too many red ink cartridges for my liking!

My bum trade of the year (so far) - hey ho!

Petropavlovsk PLC ("the Company" or, together with its subsidiaries, the "Group") announces that the Group has entered into hedging arrangements to sell 96,000 ounces of gold over a period of three months ending in June 2014 at an average price of US$1,408 per ounce. This represents approximately 55% of the Group's forecast production for the period.



These arrangements are in response to the volatility in the gold price, which the Company will continue to monitor, and are in addition to the hedging announced on 15 February 2013. These arrangements do not reflect the Company's view of the likely future course of the US$ gold price

Gold prices are up some 40 bucks over the last couple of days. Not that you'd notice with POG !!

Skinny, could you post the gold chart you've posted
on the Greystone Traders' thread here, please. Chessplayer
makes a good point.

AGM 11th June might be interesting.

On average, POG has secured around 50% of revenue at average gold price $1613.
If it was 100% of its production at $1613, POG share price would be at least 280.


What do you think?

Amazing - today.

Westhouse Securities Buy 124.70 285.00 275.00 Retains

Canaccord Genuity Buy 124.70 510.00 510.00 Reiterates

May declared short interest is now 5% of stock, from only 1.5% short at the end of march.

perhaps brokers are taking into account POG's net asset value which appears to be around 500p.

Hedging and POG

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/10071998/Risk-of-vicious-circle-for-gold-as-hedging-returns.html

I suppose that the TP will meet the actual price at some point!

Canaccord Genuity Buy 127.80 510.00 340.00 Reiterates

Check out almost any mining stock and the broker has a buy recommendation. Yet they are all going down !!

The question that needs to be asked and answered is "what the hell is going on ? "

Why are they saying BUY, but SELL is what is happening ? There is a story here, but what is it ?