http://oilbarrel.com/news/new-cpr-adds-another-billion-barrels-of-prospective-resources-to-argos-resources-north-falkland-basin-block
July 29, 2013
New CPR Adds Another Billion Barrels Of Prospective Resources To Argos Resources' North Falkland Basin Block
Having crunched through its 3D data set, described by managing director John Hogan as the best quality he's seen in his 35 year career, AIM-quoted Argos Resources has delivered a massive uplift in prospective resources for its acreage in the North Falkland Basin. A CPR from Senergy gives the block a new best estimate prospective resource of more than 3 billion barrels of recoverable oil, up by almost a billion on the last CPR in 2011, while the high case estimate now tops 10 billion barrels
The £38 million market cap company acquired 1,415 sq km of 3D over its PL001 licence in 2011, giving complete coverage of the 1,126 sq km block as well as a “halo” outside the licence boundaries and tie-ins to key wells (Argos participated in the first ever drilling bout in the Falklands, participating in two exploration wells in 1998 alongside Amerada Hess. Both wells, 14/09-1 and 14/09-2, found oil shows but neither were commercial.)
The 2011 CPR was based on fast-track processing of this data but, having spent the past two years working up a thorough interpretation and analysis of the survey, the company believed the increased prospectivity deserved a new CPR. That would appear to be vindicated by Synergy's findings, with the CPR confirming 52 prospects, up from 28 in 2011, and identifying an additional 40 leads. It's worth noting that before Argos shot the 3D in 2011, its prospect inventory tallied just seven so the US$20 million survey has delivered a real uplift in value.
The upgraded prospect inventory can be divided into two categories: fault bounded and four-way dip closed structural traps and combined structural and stratigraphic traps defined by seismic amplitude anomalies. It is the latter category that has Argos excited, with the company highlighting the similarities with the seismic anomalies of Rockhopper's 2010 Sea Lion oilfield in the neighbouring block, still the only commercial oil strike in the Falklands. A number of these prospects are vertically stacked, which means several could be tested with a single well. The Rhea stack, for example, carries a combined potential of 449 million barrels of prospective resources that could be tested by one well.
“The data shows that a big delta has migrated over time in the Lower Cretaceous from north to south across our licence area, creating Sea Lion type sandstone traps,” says Hogan, who as chief operating officer at Lasmo had a front row seat in the 1998 campaign. Argos has increased its confidence following a proprietary basin modelling study by a North American company that concluded the source rock had generated 30 billion barrels of oil on Argos' licence alone. “That should be more than enough to charge our prospects,” says Hogan.
Of course, all of this is just theory until tested by the drillbit. As oilbarrel.com regulars are only too aware, there have been plenty of AIM companies boasting multi-billion barrel prospect inventories complete with seismic anomalies, seeps and DHIs that have gone on to sink millions of pounds of shareholders' funds into expensive wildcats, only to come back empty handed.
Argos, which ended 2012 with US$5.7 million in cash, is perhaps better placed than most. Not only is the quality of the 3D exceptional - “We used a state-of-the-art vessel on only its second job and the rocks were just very conducive to good imaging so we were able to map everything in really fine detail,” says Hogan – but the company is also next door to the only commercial oilfield in the Falklands. “Oil fields are herd animals,” says Hogan, “and you never find one in isolation. We're sure that Sea Lion will be one of several in the North Falkland Basin.”
Now the company, which holds 100 per cent of the licence, needs to get other explorers to share its conviction. It has been searching for partners since last year and it is, admits Hogan, taking longer than he would have liked. “It's a new country for the vast majority of the industry and they have to go through a prolonged process of due diligence.”
News of a farm-out is going to be the next catalyst for the share price. Hogan, already in talks with interested parties, is looking for partners with industry credibility and the financial muscle to commit to a multi-well campaign. It helps that the North Falkland Basin, while remote, is actually a fairly benign place to operate. All of the Argos prospects are less than 500 metres of water and the targets are 3,000 metres down, well within the capability of conventional anchored semi-subs. It's easy drilling, with the wells reaching TD in 15 days and even the weather conditions aren't particularly challenging.
“The weather record for the Ocean Guardian campaign was less than half the waiting on weather time than the North Sea,” says Hogan. “The North Falkland Basin is actually in the lea of the South American continent so it's relatively benign.”
He puts drilling costs at around US$35 million per well and would hope to share rig time with other local operators to help shoulder the mobilisation and demobilisation costs.Because Argos holds one of the original licences here, there's no particular hurry to rush into drilling: it has until November 2015 until it needs to drill its next well. Even so, Hogan doesn't want to wait around as it is drillbit activity that is going to revive the drifting share price. The shares ticked up 1.5 per cent to close at 17.75 pence on news of the CPR. “Given that the AIM oil sector is really out of favour at the moment, no one had any expectations that it would trigger a correction in the share price,” says Hogan. “We're just pleased it didn't go down.”