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http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381032
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381151
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/final-results/201310250700053729R/

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VOG is presently drilling Well 104 in its West Medvezhye field,and expected to reach depth in 4 weeks from spud date of 30th June, that makes 27th July(this week).
Results of testing will be sometime mid/late August, with a positive outcome
it could be HUGH.
With estimates of 134BILLION cubic metres of GAS and 201 Million barrels of Gas
Condensate,it will be a Company Maker. The field is in the area of the largest gas field in the WORLD.
Other assets include Kemerkol in Kazakhstan, with C1 reserves of 8.7MBO
and C2 reserves of7.8MBO. Another acquistion is Tamdykol with potental
reserves of 34MBO, it also has interest in 2 blocks in the North Sea.
You can check it out on www.uk-wire.com, and its own site of www.victoriaoilandgas.com.
It has excellent management team led by Kevin Foo, who hopes to turn it into
a Mid Cap Company(�500m+) in the not to distant future.
As i stated earlier in the post, Drilling is almost complete so it won't be long to Lift Off?
Well, Well worth checking out.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111040700164867R

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111290700139263S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112200700132888U
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207090700051587H
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/rsm-default/201401130700074445X/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/interim-results/201402280701321590B/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=VOG&tab=announcements

When it's a south bound train, being in cash till a new breakout is best...
Ride the waves like PET earlier in the year, but don't be greedy...

Nobody wants to pay a premium for fund raising period!

Bull traps - bear traps - MM control this for now.

DYOR - obviously.

666

666

In at 82p. Others in tentatively now at 85-87 range. Ride the wave indeed.

Not for the faint hearted.

Nam

NAM

Yeah...

I love this stuff...

666

;@)

Nam

NAM

:P

Enjoy the ride...

666

That RNS was no help at all, it did not refute any of the points raised in the newspaper article.

"The proposed fundraising will provide funds that are essential for the continuation of its development programmes at West Medvezhye and Kemerkol."

My understanding was the the company had 11m at the time of the results in Oct. Eight weeks from now is roughly the start of February. For a company of VOG's size to burn 11m in just a few months is ridiculous, so I suspect there may be one-off payments due at that point. Would be nice to know.

I don't like the word "essential" in there. That worries me.

Right now, I would settle for reduced fundraising focussing exclusively on West Medvezhye. Alternatively, there is the option to sell a percentage of the rights that Victoria own in exchange for the finances required.

On the basis of the gas discovery in West Medvezhyein I am on of those investors who believed that VOG SP would hit 150/200p at some point. However the sp has taken a battering not because of the fundamentals but due to bad management of RNS. News leak about the proposed fundraising has badly affected the SP. We seem to get RNS, after newspaper artcles, which does not provide any real facts or refute it, apart from confirming that VOG is seeking additional funding, this certainly is not very helpful. I do hold and intend to hold for long term. Originally got in at 57p topped up at 97/98p and a further lot at 115p, but did take some profit at 148/149p. The discovery is such huge, which has been confirmed by independent consultants I failed to understand why the SP has dropped below 100p. Apart from the fact that the company is seeking additional funding I can only contribute the short selling to bad PR. May be others on this board can shed some light on why VOG is getting bad publicity (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/tips-and-tactics/article.html?in_article_id=405618&in_page_id=23
) and the sp is taking such a battering.

The reason why the shares have taken a beating is:

No additional finance in 6 weeks and its bust simple as that really.

so the derampers get here too.
so you think they will go bust ,lol get real man have a look at the shareholders then see if they will stand back and let this go down for a few mil quid

L-R Global Partners L.P.
8.42%
Celtic Resources Holdings Plc 7.82%
Libra Fund LP 6.26%
Altima Partners LLP
7.21%
St James's Square Nominees Ltd 5.81%
Hydrocarbons Technologies Ltd
4.71%
L-R Global Fund Ltd.
5.49%
then theres directors who topped up a few months ago.
good piece on t1ps about paper columist, very intresting reading, says that after the slickers there are still some(not many) who print stuff.
tonys

Directors topped up @ 37p.

Agree with Diablo666 - 09 Dec 2005 15:39 - 163 of 172.

Unless you know what you are doing safer in cash.Share price in downtrend from intra highs of 150p-160p with falling supports resistances 120p, 115p, 110p, 105p, 100p, 95p.............current trading range 80p-95p.Meant to be worth 300p,aren't they??? Anyway that's what investors bought into.Volatile bull and bear traps.Markets takes no prisoners.Greed and fear.

Leaked stories and totally bungled amateurish announcements from the company.

Questions where VOG is going short term remain unanswered and market hates uncertainty which plays straight into the hands of speculative sellers.

Here's my attempt at a valuation should the various fields prove up and we get to production:

West Med Gas: 0.5-2.3 tcf roughly equals to 14-64bn cubic metres. If they get the same net back as Novatek at RUR660 per 1,000 cubic meters, that's about $22.9 per 1,000 cubic metres. Take off say $3 for production costs, and factor down to a 75% holding gives: $210-$960m of market cap. Equivalent to 147-672p per share (Assuming $1.7: and RUR28.8:$1 and 84m shares in issue). This valuation may increase if the Russian gas market liberalises.

West Med Condensate. From the RNS of 18th March, potential condensate is say 100-200m barrels. If we value that at a conservative $1 in the ground, gives say 53-105p per share. As these are proven up, and start producing the value per barrel is likely to increase.

Kemerkol. 60m boe potential recoverable. Again be conservative and value this at say $1.50 in the ground to $5 per bbl in production as it hasn't flowed for VOG yet. This gives say 63p-210p per share.

Tamdykol. Potential 34m barrels. 90% owned. Again say $1.50 in the ground to $5 in production gives 32-105p per share. Probably mark this down a bit now after the first well being a duster. But NEK asking to expand the programme to 10 wells (especially if that is at their cost like the previous 4-well contract) is a positive angle.

Note also that the original estimate for recoverable reserves in West Med was 4.8tcf. The deeper levels of the field have yet to be drilled so there is potentially another 2.5 tcf of gas at these deeper levels not included yet in the valuation.

I guess this gives low-high valuation estimates at: 295-1092p per share.



Research links:

http://eng.gazpromquestions.ru/page14.shtml

http://www.novatek.ru/netcat_files/80_52.pdf (Page 4)

And here is a deconstruction of the Daily Mail article:

THE phrase 'not for widows and orphans' could have been coined for companies like Victoria Oil & Gas. True - its a high risk stock on a high risk market. Nothing new


The Aim-listed explorer has told the City a story that has a seductive chance of success, but at this stage in its development there is also a real chance of failureI think that 500bn cu ft of gas and up to 200m barrels of condensate have more chance of success than failure. . Indeed, the shares yesterday fell 6p to 93p on nervous selling fuelled by gossip that colourful chairman Kevin Foo's plan to find 'rescue' financing has hit big trouble It is unlikely that a re-financing ever goes smoothly, and it may have hit a hiccup. If there was serious trouble, the existing institutions would be bailing out, and there is no sign of that. Nothing has changed about the fundamentals.
.


Apparently, Victoria will run out of cash in about eight weeks VOG had $11m at the last report. No doubt a good deal has been spent on West Med and on Kemerkol. A further fund raising to prove up and/or develop the fields was always on the cards, so the fact we need extra funding is hardly a surprise. and is desperate to continue its exploration activities in Russia If I was sat on 500bn cu ft (or up to 2.3trn cu ft at these levels, and may be up to 4.5 trn cu ft if one includes the as yet unexplored deeper levels) of gas I would also be desperate to continue to explore the field and develop it, so whats the problem here? Note that these numbers are not made up, they come from a respectable independent source of DeGoyler & MacNaughton. . But institutions have so far given Foo, who has been around the block with companies like Aberfoyle Holdings and Bakyrchik Gold, the bargepole treatment. Is there evidence to support this claim?



Recent speculation has suggested that Foo wanted to raise up to 10m by offering investors shares at 100p. The speculation on the ADVFN board was around 7m, but who knows for sure?



'No chance,' said an informed source last night. 'Not at this level. There is no guarantee whatsoever that its well in Siberia will provide commercial quantities of gas.' The only things guaranteed in life are death and taxes. But VOGs field sits right next to one of the largest gas fields on the planet, so IMHO this makes it quite likely that the gas will flow.



The source went on to say: 'Even if the gas discovery is proved successful, who exactly is Victoria going to sell the gas to? Well, there is a large company in Russia with a big pipeline to the West. It is called Gazprom, and the pipeline is apparently only a few km away from the West Med field. There are also other companies using this type of arrangement (e.g. Novatek, and another Nelson Resources, was just taken over, doing the same thing). Notably, the gas condensate if it proves up will not have to be sold down the pipeline, and could be sold direct for export without the involvement of Gazprom.
Why take a chance in what has often proved to be a dangerous 'jam tomorrow' sector'? Because its there, because if you dont take risks, you dont get rewards. Because we are at the early stages of the commodity cycle, because we are nearing the Hubbert Peak of Oil production and because demand for Oil and Gas is rising faster than supply can keep up. In this environment, the potential rewards could be outstanding.



Victoria's shares more than trebled to a peak of 128p last month when it claimed it had made a large potential gas discovery in western Siberia Again, not just claimed, but demonstrated by independent estimates from DeGoyler & MacNaughton.
Victoria paid just 6.4m for its three-quarter share in the Russian field. What good value that deal is showing to be

kiwi
you mailed george, any chance letting us know what he said, also good stuff on the advfn bb ,but to many d heads there so it gets lost easy, thx for bringing it here.

by the way where in nz u from

Doesn't matter who the shareholders are if no new finance in 6 weeks its busted flush for this outfit.

tsmith,

Got a reply from George and from Kevin Foo. They are taking the issues seriously and congratulated me on my detective work and the support of the company.

I think they believe there to be some 'dark forces' at work tryingto talk down the stock so they can get in more cheaply on the placing. They are asking the AIM authorities to investigate.

Not from NZ, my brother moved there, so I picked Kiwi as a handle, with the 7 signifying my Caterham as it happens.

Fruitcake,

I think if the existing holders were serioulsy worried they would bail out. No sign of that. They have deep enough pockets to stump up the cash if needs be to fund the proving up of the fields. Its not in their interests to start funding the company and then see their investment go up in smoke just as its on the brink of success is it?

been here before with jkx sbe just been down 35% with sbe now its come back now down 35% on Vog not a nice feeling but i haVe had around 2k return on tradeing Vog if i kept all my oils from three year ago would be a millionaire here alist of the ones that got away took profits on bur sbe mrs cairn oil jkx dgo hnr bp shell there lot more had 16 but they haVe all gone up like a oil fired rocket except ramco pre but that was just my bad timing the institution know where the big money is to be made there trying to knock them down to as low placeing price could be 78-84 dont bet what you cant loose some are up some are down some haVe stayed the same why would anyone want to post just to put frightners on other holders thats not nice.

That must be the longest sentence of the year.

Well done Cellby.