.

Guess my luck has now kicked in hence price dropping,where is that gas oven of mine.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/uk/news/display_news/article/xcite-energy-drops-25-per-cent-on-reserves-report/771.html

May 12, 2011

Xcite Energy Drops 25 Per Cent On Reserves Report





Shareholders in Xcite Energy had a pretty wild ride on Tuesday when the AIM and TSX-Venture quoted company released its latest reserves numbers. The shares, which opened at 321.5 pence, were down as low as 182 pence by early afternoon but recovered somewhat in late trading to close at 237.5 pence per share as some took advantage of what could be seen as an initial over-reaction to the reserves report for its Bentley heavy oilfield in the UK North Sea. Even so, the shares still finished the day 25 per cent lower.
In part, the Aberdeen-based company can be seen as a victim of its own success. Shareholders have become used to stellar performance from Xcite it delivered share price gains of 800 per cent in 2009 and 700 per cent in 2010 but it is difficult to maintain this over the longer term. The reserves report, calculated by TRACS International Consultancy and released a couple of months later than many shareholders had expected, was based on the data from the companys 9/3b-6 and 6z wells in the northern part of the Bentley field, which is the subject of a planned first stage production (FSP) project. TRACS reckons this part of the field holds 1P reserves of 22 million barrels, 2P reserves of 28 million barrels and 3P reserves of 35 million barrels. The NPV10 number for the 2P reserves is put at US$369 million.

There are also contingent resources for this core area of the field, which would be developed in second stage production (SSP) project. These add up to 73 million barrels on a low estimate, 87 million barrels on a best estimate and 101 million barrels on a high estimate basis. These contingent resources would convert to reserves once the SSP is sanctioned and delivered no further appraisal work is required because, as the company set out on Tuesday, no technical contingencies remain. None of the reserves and resources numbers in what seems to be a conservative report include the impact of enhanced oil recovery techniques, which is significant given that this is heavy 10-12-degree API crude.

Yet many investors no doubt had in mind numbers that have been oft quoted of a potential P50 reserve of 200 million barrels with a 750 million barrel oil-in-place estimate and felt disappointed with the more conservative reserves report, which adding the 2P reserves and best estimate resources come to 115 million barrels. Yet TRACS can only work with the data it has and, as indicated by Charles Lucas Clements, Xcites director of strategy and business development when he spoke at oilbarrel.coms January conference, there are still many unknowns about the full scope of the field, which has to date exceeded all expectations.

The key well is the 6z horizontal well of late 2010, which proved the reservoir had high porosity, high permeability and high productivity. The company expected test production of between 1,200 and 2,400 bpd with a very maximum rate of 2,800 bpd but the well flowed 2,900 bpd with the rate constrained by the limits of the equipment. Lucas Clements said the well had the capability to flow 3,000 to 3,500 bpd, well above initial expectations.
The other interesting point is that the horizontal section of the well, which at 550 metres was more than 100 metres longer than expected, could have gone further. We stopped because we did not want the well to get stuck but it means the reservoir goes on and we do not know how long for, said Lucas Clements in January. We are now outside the original envelope of investigation so we have more work to do.

The important thing for now, however, is that the TRACS report gives the company 2P reserves of 28 million barrels, enabling it to get on with raising the financing for the FSP.

Certainly Xcites CEO Richard Smith described the report as an excellent outcome. The Reserve Assessment Report confirms management's belief in the commercial value of Bentley and its potential as one of the largest undeveloped fields in the UK sector of the North Sea, said Smith. This reserves upgrade allows us to proceed with the First Stage Production and is a key milestone in our program to determine full field reserves and deliver significant value for shareholders."

David Farrell of Evolution Securities, maintaining his Buy rating with a price target of 322 pence, also described the report as a "positive step forward" as it enabled it to push ahead with securing finance for production.

i think that in 6/12 months (say), sp will be considerably higher, but as i mentioned earlier, once a company loses the confidence of the market, it can be the devil's own job to regain it - ask gerald ratner!

Not quite the same cyners.......no one has said xel deals in "total crap". When it drops back to 2 buy buy buy.,.

I bought back in today. Will a takeover move closer ?

LoL
you lot are gamblers and adreneline addicts.
this company is well named.
good luck to all of you.
regards
jkd

Are you sure your an investor jkd???.,.
regards BB

What are we, if not all gamblers. We are not here for fun.

Bb
no im not sure.did i ever say i was?
i may be,but not sure, depends on definition.
just know i like to use risk/reward and money management to help me both into and out of positions.
hope i have answered your question.i.e.no.
regards to you also.
jkd

Reckon your either a WI member or a politician......they both waffle.,.
regards BB

and i thought i answered the question with my "no".
one word. two letters.
now how does that leave room for waffle? LoL ;-)
regards
jkd

I guess a labour politician, only a joke .

LoL Bb
have just re read last few posts.
blimey,did i misunderstand i am now wondering. i responded to your question and replied accordingly. did you perhaps mean or intend something other than in your original question that either i misunderstood or you maybe didnt make clearer.
no matter, it worked out ok, even if we did have an exchange of posts with different concepts. or maybe not? LoL.! ;-)
lets work out the possible missunderstanding, or not as the case may be.
did you mean to ask ,are you sure you are an investor in this stock? that was Not the question . and i answered and replied to your Actual question which was are you sure you are an investor jkd??? (post 1643)
they are of course different questions and would require different responses and answers and i answered your Actual question. LoL!
and i hope price recovers soon.may or may not. dyor
good luck
regards
jkd

I wonder how long this is going to take to get back to 3.50 +, still welcome a takeover.

Has dropped below 200p for first time.,.

Guess i topped up to early,I hope that some good news comes from the AGM this week.

my fear is that AGM will announce fund raising - i.e. the "bad" news after what the management thought was the "good" news re the reserves

i sincerely hope not!

however considering a buy at <185 - but may wait as sentiment is against xel right now

should bounce from here!!

why?