Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.

I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.

Another good reason to hold on to this share.

The MW1 oil could add 50% to revenues in what is a profitable company. Tullow oil well in Guyana would add 35% t0 65% onto current revenues(drilling Q1), so there is easily visible doubling of revenues and profit. This brings us back to the bid speculation from the news the other day. NOP is still cheap based on the visible growth. Add the Italian drilling for 1Bn+ (up to 8Bn with all the prospects?) barrels and a pre-emptive strike by BP, Shell(thus getting 100% of Italy) or similar could be on the cards soon.

A quick summary of info and my view of how things will go for NOP.

Current SP should be 196p according to Goldman Sachs, this is at $85 a barrel. The consensus expected 2011 average for oil is around 25% higher, which would lead to an increased valuation on NOP to 235p
t1ps.com have a 'buy up to 145p with a 350p target' recommendation
NOP is a 'Tip for 2011' from The Times
3 brokers are listed on Digital Look, all have 'strong buy' for NOP
Matrix analysts have a 170p target
http://gecr.co.uk/ have a 314p target

Results from MW1 should be in within a week or two, if they hit 35m to 60m barrels and a producer it will be seen as big news for NOP.

Tullow are drilling Guyana in Q1. The oilfield is expected to be similar to the nearby Jubilee field which is running at 58,000 bpd rising soon to 120,000 bpd. If Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5% to 65% increase on its production today.

Based upon the above the NOP SP should easily pass 2 by the end of Q1.

Also by the end of Q1 Shell Italia MUST make a decision on drilling the Thrust and Fold belt offshore Italy, targeting 1Bn+ barrels of oil. Goldman Sachs have pencilled in Q3 2011 for the drilling.

Based on Shell Italia going ahead with drilling in Q3 2011, the SP should rise rapidly on the announcement and continue rising as the date nears for the spudding in Q3.

Goldman Sachs have valued a successful oil strike on a producer of 1Bn barrels as being worth 500% on their valuation of 196p, taking it to 945p. Allowing for the 25% higher oil price the valuation would increase to 1181p

So by the time Shell Italia are drilling the Thrust and Fold belt in Q3, the NOP SP should be speculatively bought up to at least 4 per share, leaving room for a double or treble for those already in, if they hit 1Bn+ barrels of producible oil as expected.

Still think you should start a new thread with a new header as the one on top is well out of date and no charts.

The share is on my watchlist.

here's a chart for you marky .... certainly a strong breakout and good that the possible resistances (that is see!) at 125/130 have been firmly breached

Richard, are those MAs 200 & 50?

red = 25 ...... green = 50 ...... black = 200

Curious

TA has been banging on about the Golden Cross, posting charts which clearly show two MAs crossing whilst both heading up, the chart above does not.

Edit: Ah, mystery solved, EMAs do the necessary.

Northern Petroleum are on the BBC's teletext service (analogue), page 117.......this is an impressive little company in the making.....

indeed not though the breakout looks quite impressive ...... to be honest, i never set much store by either golden or dead crosses

It's what's coming this year that will send this over 200p.....buy now and wait....

ptholden, correct!

EMA is the one to use for the 50 over 200, not the SMA. In my chart below I use EMA on ADVFN PRO charting and the 50EMA is crossed a rising 200EMA. It makes no difference whether the 200 SMA is rising on the Golden Cross either. Quote from a TA site:


In the Merrill Lynch report prepared by Mary Ann Bartels, it continues to distinguish between golden crosses that happen with a downward long term moving average and those when the long term moving average is rising:

Of the 42 Golden Cross signals triggered since 1928, 20 have occurred with the 200-day moving average in a declining trend or lower than it was 30 trading sessions ago. These signals on average have generated 12-month returns of 13.3%.

The remaining 22 signals occurred when the 200-day moving average was rising or higher than it was 30 trading sessions ago. The returns for these signals were much lower and on average generated 12-month returns of 5.7%.

cynic, shame you don't put much on Golden Crosses or Dead Crosses, look at the money you could have made on NOP if you did ;)

Chart from before the Golden Cross as I was predicting it at the time I bought in(at 111p). This GC is coming from about the same base as the GC of 2007, suggesting 2 could be along by end of Q1.

Italy.

"The unaudited, mean, combined and unrisked Prospective Resources of all mapped prospects in the six licences from the present limited seismic data base is estimated by Northern at 1.9 billion barrels (100%) recoverable."

"The indicative gross estimate of the optional work programme that Northern will be carried on for its share up to the point of earn in by Shell on this acreage is in excess of Euro100 million."

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=29712132&symbol=LSE:NOP

TA - i fully understand the logic of golden and dead crosses, but being a simpleton, i tend to follow trend or momentum and certainly pay attention when sp surges through 200 or even 50 dma ..... overall, the strategy is probably much the same .....

thank you for pointing out what i might have made on NOP, always supposing that i banked profits - i regularly do, though many here do not! - rather than sit like a rabbit when sp crashes (see above!) ...... however, i am more than happy with the profits i actually made over the last couple of years on the likes of RKH, EO, XEL, CFA, HOIL, TLW, IEC et al

meanwhile, you may be pleased to know that i have been paying attention to at least the sentiments you propound here, even though my attention span is far too short to read thoroughly

Share price should rise towards this with speculative buying.

In Guyane, operator Tullow Oil acquired 2,500 square kilometres of 3D seismic in February 2010 which it is now processing and interpreting. As a 1.25% owner, Northern's holding is as a portfolio investor only, but with the prospect's first well targeted for spudding in February 2011, there is a prevailing cautious optimism.

http://uk-analyst.com/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130007935

an interesting read, but when you see the note above NOP was for HAWK with a target of 229 one does have considerable doubts as to the author's sanity, let alone anything else ...... mug-punter holders of HAWK would be ecstatic if sp even reached 22.9p!!

Not looked not HAWK yet, but saw a broker rec' on IG Index(last Wed or Thu) with something like 200%+ upside. This was not the same analyst, so there must be more than one less than sane analyst out there. Either that or they are both right ;)

Digital Look broker recs for HAWK, price and target

06-Jan-11 Daniel Stewart Buy 11.00p 45.00p - Reiteration
06-Dec-10 Daniel Stewart Buy 8.77p 45.00p - Reiteration
29-Nov-10 Westhouse Securities Buy 10.50p 88.00p 37.00p Reiteration
22-Nov-10 Daniel Stewart Buy 13.25p 45.00p - Reiteration
08-Nov-10 Daniel Stewart Buy 12.50p 45.00p - Reiteration
08-Nov-10 Goldman Sachs Buy 12.50p - 24.60p New Coverage

HAWK's shareholders list must resemble a charnel house ..... do yourself a favour and avoid

So the conservative estimate appears to be 350m worth of recoverable oil, because it could be up to 500m, according to 'some experts'.

"For a long time there had been suspension of oil lying below the Markhams Wood site. Some experts believe the reserve could worth be up to half a billion pounds."
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/159082.html

Ok, so who is up for an Italy drilling decision:

1) By end of January
2) In February
3) In March

And drill/no drill?

I am going for option 1 and drill, because the small print on the AGM presentation shows "Time and depth processing by December 2010" "exploration well 2011", then it says "Shell have paid all past costs and for the 2D and 3D seismic programme" then "Shell will pay for drilling and testing a well to earn an interest". We also know the decision was 'expected' in Q4 2010(so Shell were working to that time-line) and that Shell only have until end of Q1 2011 to decide.

So work it out, Shell have forked out a load of cash, spent a lot of time and money looking at these leads, they might have had their own delays but know they need to make this decision ASAP. They were going to decide in Q4 but got delayed, how big could that delay possibly be? if it was from the weather then maybe a few weeks, either way I doubt it will be much longer.

IMVHO they will drill as it is a huge resource, they have already spent a lot of cash and time on it so they have shown a huge interest in it, but if they don't drill they get nothing form this huge resource and they loose all the cash and time spent looking at it. No-brainer to say drill isn't it?


(Lead D is 720 mmbbls, lead E is 1032 mmbbls on 2D, could be higher after 3D or even joined together meaning only one well for 1752+ mmbbls)