BG. Gas prices over 14% up recently with more to come - global LNG expanding and further exploration rights --- about to break out.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=989336

dikytree.

UBS comment:
"BG expects 2013 production at 633kboed, in line with the guidance at 630 660kboed and UBSe 633kboed. LNG earnings will come at $2.6bn, at the mid-point of the guidance and vs. UBSe $2.572bn. Recurring net income will amount to $4.4bn (UBSe $4.3bn), but big impairments will be taken against Egypt ($1.3bn) and the US ($1.1bn). Tax rate is expected to average 41% (UBSe 42%).
2014 production is guided to 590-630kboed (UBSe 670kboed); LNG earnings to $2.1- $2.4bn (UBSe $2.69bn). Average unit costs are also expected to be higher, primarily on start up unit costs related to Brazil and Australia, with opex at $15.50-$16.25/bbl vs. UBSe $12.78/boe and DD&A $12.25-$13/boe vs. UBSe $11.46/boe. 2015 production guidance of 710-750kboed is a 9% downgrade on the mid-point vs. previous expectations (UBSe 776kboed). 2015 LNG earnings are expected to be similar to 2014 (UBSe $2.9bn). Effective tax rate should remain around 41%. BG still sees itself FCFpositive starting from 2015, which is a compensation but potentially capex related.
The Force Majeure declared in Egypt reflects the ongoing diversion of gas volumes to the domestic market in excess of the existing pooling arrangements (currently close to capacity of 1Bcfd). The US impairment stems from lower forward gas prices and hence continued low rig count. 2014 is also impacted by delays in Brazil plus maintenance in the north Sea and PSC effects in Trinidad and Tobago. The announcement is disappointing and affecting management credibility and the BG investment case."

Beaufort Securities Buy 1,085.00 - - Retains

Citigroup Buy 1,085.00 1,510.00 1,400.00 Reiterates

JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 1,085.00 1,550.00 1,300.00 Downgrades

Nomura Buy 1,085.00 1,450.00 1,350.00 Reiterates

Credit Suisse Neutral 1,085.00 1,200.00 1,115.00 Upgrades

Deutsche Bank Buy 1,085.00 1,400.00 1,250.00 Reiterates

Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy 1,078.00 1,082.00 - 1,580.00 Reiterates

Barclays Capital Equal weight 1,078.00 1,082.00 - 1,370.00 Reiterates

HSBC Overweight 1,079.50 1,082.00 1,425.00 1,325.00 Reiterates

Can't make up my mind whether to buy any at this level. Historically the sp seems to regularly fall off a cliff and then slowly build back up again. Shame the divi yield isn't that great.

I've had a dabble @1075 £10 has been support on several occasions.

Investec Sell 1,079.75 1,082.00 1,100.00 1,000.00 Retains

Societe Generale Hold 1,079.75 1,082.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 Retains

BG Group seems to have got it wrong in Egypt and the US, yet it is hard to lay responsibility for the write-downs in either region at the company's door. The group's fortunes will be decided not in either of those two jurisdictions but in Australia and Brazil. By Credit Suisse's - no cheerleader for the stock - calculations, production from the outfit will rise to just under 1.2m barrels of oil equivalent by 2020, from just over 600,000 at present. Rose tinted glasses aside, that is all very well and good but after Monday's warning the stock will be left trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of approximately of 15, versus roughly 10 times earnings over at Shell and BP. And on what basis? The company's own production targets? This is an outfit which has cut its own estimates on four occasions throughout the last 18 months, Deutsche bank reminds us. That multiple prices in a lot of confidence that the company can deliver, says the Financial Times' Lex column.

Reaching support level. Am thinking about investing sub £10.

Harry yes £8 would suit us.

Hmmmmmm....£8 might be a bit optomistic.

Added a few today @1,019.

Final results

Full Year Key Points
· Business Performance total operating profit down 5% at $7.6 billion
· Upstream total operating profit down 9%; LNG Shipping & Marketing (S&M) up 3%
· Delivered all 10 key milestones in 2013; continued to make progress in Brazil and Australia
· Business Performance EPS flat at 128.6 cents; total results EPS down 33% at 64.8 cents
· Total results included non-cash post-tax impairments in Egypt and US totalling $2.4 billion
· Issued Force Majeure notices in respect of LNG agreements in Egypt
· Full year dividend increased by 10% to 28.75 cents per share (18.02 pence per share)

· 2014 production outlook of 590 - 630 kboed; 2014 profit outlook for LNG S&M at $2.1 - $2.4 billion
· 2014 unit operating costs range $15.50 - 16.25 / boe; Unit DD&A costs range $12.25 - 13.00 / boe
· 2015 production outlook of 710 - 750 kboed: expect to be free cash flow positive in 2015

Ex-divi wed 23rd Apr (9.51p)

1st Quarter results

First Quarter Key Points

· Business Performance EPS down 3% to 33.8 cents; Total EPS down 9% to 32.4 cents

· Net cash flow from operating activities up 6% to $2.4 billion

· E&P production volumes down 4% at 633 kboed

· LNG segment total operating profit down 7%; no BG Group cargoes from Egyptian LNG

· Egyptian domestic offtake exceeded contractual commitments; deteriorating reservoir performance

· Good progress in Australia and Brazil with key milestones delivered

· Group's exposure to commodity prices and foreign exchange rates 50 - 70% hedged in 2014

about 8.5m traded today which i think may be much heavier than the norm
sp has been very buoyant which is greatly against the trend
a serious nibbler at work perhaps?

2+2 = 5

keep an eye on this one ...... sp was down fairly sharply this morning but has now recovered well, and the following just may have some credibility ....

BG has become the perfect target for a takeover attempt. Indeed, the company appears to have lost its way recently and is currently without a CEO. Former CEO Chris Finlayson was ousted by shareholders earlier this year, after only 16 months on the job.
What's more, some of the company's major projects are delayed and running over budget. Then there is Egypt, where the company has issued a Force Majeure. Egypt accounts for about 18% of BG's production and much of this gas is now being diverted away from export terminals, to the domestic market. This has hit the company's income from the region.
Nevertheless, BG does have some attractive assets. For example, the company is still producing around 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and is the world's most active LNG trader.

Blimey - who is it this time - just about everyone has been in the frame over the years, including :-

RDSB,Exxon Mobil,China National Petroleum Corp and Sinopec.

.

The initial fall was probably due to :

Nomura Neutral 1,251.75 1,350.00 1,350.00 Downgrades