http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20050126070000PE650.html

Some bounce today to 15.25p

comparing
---------------------------------- 7 days --------------------------------------------------- 3 month --------------------------------
---

Gold shares 3 month chart

Percentage fall on the last 3 month
PAF - 37%
CEY - 24%
SGH - 32%
HOC - 35%

Bought some more at 14.25p

Some improvement at the end of the day
There was a couple of large trades earlier

note - There was an "UT" @ 13.50p at opening, most likely was signaling the end of the drop

A good rise in SA

JSE: PAN - Dec 28, 2:03 PM

252.00ZAC Price increase 7.00 (2.86%)

Who do you believe this days.... with predictions none but mine ( short term ).........

Here’s when the new bull market starts for gold
By Barbara Kollmeyer - Published: Dec 28, 2016 9:57 a.m. ET

Carlson offers up the “amazing” chart below that shows the ride to the top and down again for one triple-leveraged miners ETF JNUG, -0.19% . By the numbers, the fund was up nearly 920% by late August, but has since lost 87% of that. It’s now up over 40% for the year.

A Wealth of Common Sense
That brings us to our call of the day — a prediction about precious metals. It’s from Lamoureux & Co.’s Yves Lamoureux, who thinks he knows how 2017 will roll out for those plays.

“Both gold and silver will go down for the first half then move into a new bull market that will last well into 2020. This is the way the market shakes off the last remaining weak hands, prior to resuming the bull trend,” said Lamoureux in emailed comments.

“Where most turned bullish in 2016, in reaction to higher prices, we did not. Our view was and is that the bounce was an echo bubble of the prior bubble,” he said.

One reason is that he says rising real rates will “kill precious metals.” So for silver SIH7, +0.17% , he says expect lower teens in the first half, while he’s still sticking to a gold GCG7, +0.18% target of $850 an ounce, which he’s held since February.

Note, gold could mark the first rise in 8 weekly sessions if the positive momentum we’ve seen thus far has legs. This year, the commodity is on pace to have halted a multiyear decline, in what some say has been a “pivotal year” for precious metals. Others say investors are riding a downward “slope of hope.”

Gold has slumped since August, but it still is around 7% higher as the year winds down, while silver SIH7, +0.17% has fared even better with a 14% gain.

14.875p +0.25p

Has been moving higher with a steady rise for the last fews days, today is no difference on looking at the order book.
well supported on the bid side 29 v 12, though things change fast sometimes and when one expect to move forward as there is not many shares left at offer price, suddenly more are added when one thought all are gone, those added where "iceberg" waiting on the order book but not showing.
what is the point then, one would say, there is always tricks for us not able to see the real thing, despite paying for Level 2.

As I said earlier, there was 25K left at 15p offer, and as soon it was taken with "AT"s, another 25K was added from the "iceberg"

note
• Recognising and trading off ‘iceberg orders’ that can be identified on a Level 2 screen.
An iceberg order is a large single order managed by an exchange that has been divided into equal
quantities by the use of an automated program, for the purpose of hiding the actual order quantity.
This can hold back the share price at a specific level as the full extent of the order gets executed.

15.25p +0.50p

It looks like the last of the Iceberg @ 15p offer is gone, as for 30 minutes the offer is at 15.50p and naturally the bid is gone to 15p after such a large buying 2M so far

What a turn around on the order book, from being very bullish ( some manipulation by who I do not know )taking trades away from the bid side and adding some at the offer side and the "AT" on the bid side take control for a few minutes and able to buy below 14.75p, but only a couple of 15 and 10K did, now are buying at 15p again as the bid side gets stronger again

Yes it seems strange, mostly buys all day then a few sells earlier and they
dropped the s/p..

GOLD

just spiking all the way to $1158 + $15.5

Gold rises as the dollar and U.S. bond yields decline Source : By : Clara Denina Thu, Dec 29, 2016 17:31 hrs

LONDON - Gold prices rose to their highest in two weeks on Thursday as the dollar and U.S. bond yields declined following weaker than expected economic data. Spot gold hit $1,150.26 an ounce, its highest since Dec. 14., and was up 0.4 percent at $1,146.16 by 1122 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose $6.30 to $1,147.10 an ounce.
"Gold is not out of the woods yet but yields are a bit lower and the dollar is weaker, especially against the yen and yen-gold has showed a phenomenal correlation since the U.S. election," SaxoBank head of commodity research Ole Hansen said. Gold fell more than 8 percent in November as U.S. Treasury yields rose after Donald Trump's election led to speculation his commitment to infrastructure spending would spur growth.
The precious metal then hit a 10-month low on Dec. 15 as solid U.S. economic data gave the U.S. Federal Reserve the confidence to raise interest rates for the first time in a year. The central bank also signalled that it expected three more increases next year, up from a previous projection of two. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

However, gold prices are still 8 percent higher than they were at the start of the year and were heading for the first annual increase after three years of declines. "We are battling a bit here with the $1,150 level and if we make it above that we shall open up towards $1,165 but in order for funds to start getting worried about covering shorts, we probably need to rise above the mid $1,170s," SaxoBank's Hansen said. The dollar fell 0.6 percent against a basket of six main currencies, mostly due to the yen's strength, while the benchmark 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield slipped to two-week lows. "Heading into next week ... the Italian bank rescue and the direction of the Chinese yuan will likely dictate near-term pricing in gold, especially if equity markets start to get nervous about either of these two developments," INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said in a note. Gold is usually seen as a refuge from riskier assets such as equities.

China's net gold imports in November via its main conduit Hong Kong dropped 17.8 percent from October to the lowest in 10 months, data showed on Thursday. Among other precious metals, silver rose for a third straight session, up 0.8 percent at $16.10 an ounce. Platinum was 0.1 percent higher at $903.20, while palladium climbed 0.9 percent to $671.20 an ounce.

Another steady rise I cannot say the sane for the peers CEY and HOC
------------

Happy New Year

Thank you for what you taught me.
Please keep teaching my hungry mind even in 2017!

Why It’d Be Dumb to Sell Gold on the Account of a Rising Dollar - Posted on December 27, 2016 by Amith Nirgunarthy

gold and usd

As it becomes increasingly likely that the US Federal reserve will raise rates as early as December (and yes, you might be reading this after the December meeting, but it still applies), gold is under pressure. The market logic is that, with a rate increase indicating that the US economy is getting stronger, the US dollar, in turn, grows stronger relative to other major currencies.

Since investors perceive the US economy as both stable and strong, they usually have their wealth stored in dollars, hence, the reason why the dollars is a reserve currency. However, once there’s panic around the US economy, which invariably threatens the value of the dollar, investors would understandably start looking for ways to secure their wealth, which would involve storing their wealth in anything other than the US dollar. Here’s where gold comes in to play, since it’s viewed as a preserver of wealth.

Since the laws of demand and supply must play out, at any sounds of a crack in the US economy, the demand for gold starts to trend north, and hence, the price of gold. Flipping the coin, once the US economy starts emitting positive vibes, the US dollar becomes a more attractive preserver of wealth and hence, diminishing the demand for gold.

However, this is only an explanation as to why the US dollar and gold are inversely correlated. And this is what governs the decision of most gold investors. However, that’s not the entire story. Here’re a couple of additional facts you should know.

Gold Should Be Treated Like an Investment Not a Speculative Instrument

It’s true that gold doesn’t perform remarkably when the US economy is strong, or at least seems strong. So when you look at the performance of gold in patches, it looks very volatile. However, over a longer timeframe gold performs excellently. For instance, even though gold has seen an all-time high over the past decade and has since dropped by over $660 from the all-time high to the current $1170 region it is, it has outperformed the S&P 500.

Gold vs SPY

Source: Ycharts

It’s noteworthy that the S&P 500 has been trending north consistently since 2011, reaching an all-time high earlier in 2016. Since the turn of the millennium, gold has returned over 304% vs. S&P 500’s 55.27% return over the same period.

It’s easy to say, but the global financial crisis happened during the time. So yes, that should be expected. That’s correct. However, during the period of economic expansion between 2000 and 2007, gold outperformed the S&P 500 – 168.9% and 1.78% returns respectively.

If we went deeper to see the performance of gold in patches during that period, you’d find that it responded to the US economy most of the time. Yet, it’s outperformed the most important equities to the US economy.

One thing that you won’t be told is that gold, like any other tradable asset class will, won’t react in a uniform manner to reports on the strength of the US economy. Sometimes, it’d respond minimally. At other times, the reaction will be high. That’s because there are other factors involved, of whose combined force will also matter (more on this below). So you may only be able to see the real picture over the long-term, as we’ve just seen.

So yes, gold might not be on the up once the Fed raises benchmark rates. However, it doesn’t make much sense to sell off the golden portion of your portfolio on account of a rate hike.

Global Uncertainties Still Lurk

As stated above, other factors affect the price of gold other than the strength of the US economy. One of them is the strength and decisions of economies elsewhere. For instance, the Japanese government said it’s seeing economic weakness around the globe in a November study. Investors around the globe will want to preserve their wealth as well. And gold is definitely an option.

This will influence the demand and supply dynamics of gold, as it will invariably work against the strong US economic force in regards to gold pricing. In fact, this makes it even less smart to sell gold right now. If I were trading either on a binary options trading platform or any other type of trading, I’d actually find it difficult betting against gold right now.

Second day of rising in SA but not here

SA quote... 262 ZAR +4 SA quote - jse

POG rising nicely over the last few days, a particularly strong rise today..

Took another position just below 15.50p late on the day, as the GOLD price was spiking up.
Despite the rise it was small considering the rise of the others and gold price

15.675p +0.25p

so far so good this morning though I was expecting just a bit more rise of a rise, after the POG movement late yesterday.

Yet is a bit early, and not much is going on on the trading front, but at least the order book is much stronger on the bid side DEPTH 26 v 17

"[The] High Court of South Africa exposes the Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) as an irrational institution with a high degree of incompetence that obstructs the mining investment it is meant to facilitate, lacks energy in resolving issues, allows appeal processes to drag on for years and establishes a case for its own substitution."

You'd be forgiven if you thought this story was about the EMRA

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/court-exposes-dmr-as-incompetent-irrational-investment-obstructor-2017-01-11

A very strong order book after the normal UT at 12:02 with all the trades at 16p taken with "AT"s but strait away another 25K was added from the iceberg.

spread 15.75 v 16p with 110K v 75K at price
order book DEPTH 42 v 13