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Xcite Energy - North Sea Heavy Oil (XEL)     

Proselenes - 22 Oct 2009 11:14

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Sequestor - 16 May 2011 14:03 - 1668 of 3002

From mam help-----

It should be noted that all trade declarations made by the market do not include a buy or sell indicator and therefore we have to derive this information ourselves. The policy we have adopted is based on the mid price of the stock at the time of the declaration. For Example a trade declared at a price that is higher than the mid price at the time of declaration would be put in the buy column, a trade lower than the mid price would be put in the sell column. A trade which matches the mid price would be considered unknown. Please also note that the market can delay declaration of the trades for up to an hour in which case we will not make any assumptions and place that trade in UNknow column

markymar - 16 May 2011 16:47 - 1669 of 3002

I took some RKH shares off the shelf today to buy a few more of these as i think the price is far to cheap i hope am not wrong.

From iii

Listen up everyone.

I called Xcite Guilford office having not received a response to my e-mail.

I declared who I was to an American/Aussie sounding secretary. She siad she wold pass my call to Claire who takes care of investor relations.

Claires phone rang 4 or 5 times and she picked it up. I explained who I was and my concerns over the current SP and future of the business. Claire stated she was limited in what she was able to tell me and further explained that nobody else was available who could answer my questions.

A 10 minuted conversation has led to the following findings.

Mgt are currently working on a summary report (not a CPR) to explain the RR further and this will be published "sooner rather than later".

The directors "are extremely concerned" over the current SP and "surprised" at where we are so close to the beginning of the "ultimate goal Xcite was created to achieve."

She was not able to answer my question pertaining to management expectations - have they changed or not?

I said "let me rephrase that question" and asked "Is it likely that the report will further clarify managements expectations to shareholders?" She paused and said "yes". She DID NOT quantify if those expectations are up or down on previous but I think we can pretty much all take it to mean that the FSP for Bentley core was misunderstood and we are going to see significant upside to the current resources as the project develops. She agreed when I stated any fundraising at this level would be destructive and went on to say "management do not want this to happen."

We discussed the AGM where I joked with her about putting a tin hat on - She agreed and expects the AGM to be "interesting".

I feel better now and am swinging towards being confident in the respources remaining unchanged.

Hub is perhaps correct. Based on what Claire has revealed this could bounce quite sharply and soon. It does seems things have been hugely mis understood and shorted by the city who have taken great advantage of PI's who were looking for that big jump. It's been a self perpetuated fall.

Alll the best folks, I'M HOLDING AND RUDDY TIGHTLY TOO! Also looking at opening a small SB to take advantage of the fear on here.

Make of my call what you will but I am just as concerned as the next person. I'm curently 200k down across the accounts I control.

DiTra
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halifax - 16 May 2011 16:57 - 1670 of 3002

Marky the fact nobody else was available to answer questions speaks volumes.

hlyeo98 - 16 May 2011 17:08 - 1671 of 3002

I wouldn't put my faith on Claire.

cynic - 16 May 2011 17:21 - 1672 of 3002

i reckon 1653 may well prove to be accurate - we shall see

halifax - 16 May 2011 17:33 - 1673 of 3002

cynic they already have a standby facility of 100m in place to cover cost of first stage production.

cynic - 16 May 2011 17:34 - 1674 of 3002

in that case, AGM may see some recovery in sp

Sequestor - 16 May 2011 17:45 - 1675 of 3002

Claire de Loon?

dreamcatcher - 16 May 2011 17:55 - 1676 of 3002

The directors should be directing the company, ie a reassurance rns may help.

hlyeo98 - 16 May 2011 18:33 - 1677 of 3002

The directors would announce fund-raising next.

hlyeo98 - 16 May 2011 18:40 - 1678 of 3002

Numis Securities analyst Matthew Lambourne said the Bentley resource base is disappointing, as while the report credits Xcite with 28 million barrels of proven and probable reserves for the First Stage Production stage, a smaller-than-expected contingent resource base means the auditor estimates Bentley's size to be below both management's previous guidance and Numis's 160 million barrel estimate.

However, Xcite said all reserves and resources reported in the reserves assessment report only assume the use of conventional recovery techniques. The company said it believes enhanced oil recovery techniques, which will be assessed in due course, have the potential to increase recovery from the field.

Chief Executive Officer Richard Smith said: "This is an excellent outcome following the successful 9/3b-6 and 6Z wells. The reserve assessment report confirms management's belief in the commercial value of Bentley and its potential as one of the largest undeveloped fields in the U.K. sector of the North Sea."

The reserves update now allows the firm to proceed with First Stage Production and is a key milestone in its program to determine full field reserves, he added.

Lambourne said that after the U.K. government increased the oil and gas production supplementary charge, and before the resource update, Numis had estimated the Bentley development was profitable above $56 a barrel. However, with a smaller resource base and with similar heavy oil projects like Mariner and Bressay under review after the tax change, he believes the Bentley development carries more risk than conventional U.K. North Sea oil developments.

Lambourne's "buy" rating is currently under review, along with a target price.

Sequestor - 16 May 2011 18:42 - 1679 of 3002

No, just the usual nonsense at AGM`s and one thing for sure the right to snatch shares and options at vast discounts will be passed without a murmur.

dreamcatcher - 16 May 2011 18:47 - 1680 of 3002

Hope they have the windows open to let the heat and steam out ?

cynic - 16 May 2011 19:11 - 1681 of 3002

you're quite an acid-tongued little beastie aren't you Mr S, and not necessarily with justification either

dreamcatcher - 16 May 2011 19:22 - 1682 of 3002

Lets just hope we are towards the bottom and after the agm a steady rise in the sp.

jkd - 16 May 2011 19:22 - 1683 of 3002

sounds like the ceo doesnt dispute the resource report but has BELIEF of using other than conventional recovery techniques,which will be assesed IN DUE COURSE.
sounds promising,without actually stating so. what if?
might need to use plan B.
good luck to you all. i hope it flys but doent think it will.
for gap theorists theres a daily and weekly gap sitting down at 140sh level.
just my opinion as always.
regards
jkd

markymar - 16 May 2011 20:50 - 1684 of 3002

I have listed all points from their briefing note dated May 11th in relation to Xcite's New Reserves Assessment Report. This is not their main report, but highlights from it which Al Grant was happy to share and formed part of a wider daily briefing note.

For an official PDF (including contacts at Octogan etc) of the entire briefing note so you can authenticate my posting, please e-mail me at xcitecelebration@hotmail.co.uk and I will forward on via an e-mail circular tomorrow morning before the markets open. If you respond after this I will do another e-mail Wednesday morning.

Word for word as follows beneath (please read through all of the points so you can get the context of the note and the thrust of the thread!)

New Reserves Assessment Report

- On May 10, Xcite Energy Ltd, released its new Reserves Assessment Report (RAR) for its Bentley field. Xcite commissioned TRACS international Consultancy Ltd to prepare this independent audit of reserves and resources for the Company's assets. TRACS replaces the former independent reserve company, RPS Energy (RPS), which Xcite is retaining on a consulting basis.
- The new engineering group focused on the reserves accessed from a single drill centre for the northern core of the field relating to the First Stage Production (FSP). In addition, the TRACS RAR assessed the core area development scenario with a Second Stage Production (SSP) drainage area. This addition of an intermediary SSP as part of the field development following a successful FSP has introduced an element of confusion to the market, as it compares the previoulsy announced full field prospective resource to the newly booked reserves and contingent resource assigned to only the FSP and SSP drainage areas (the core area in the north part of the field).
- We interpret that the format in which the breakdown of reserves, contingent resource and prospective resource has confused the market, as it was not made clear that the sum of the parts keeps Xcite whole in the overall discovered resource at Bentley.
- To summarise the RAR: - FSP oil reserves assigned 1P, 2P and 3P are 22 MMstb, 28 MMstb and 35 MMstb, respectively
- SSP contingent resource assigned are 73 MMStb, 87 MMstb and 101 MMstb on a 'low estimate, 'best estimate' and 'high estimate' basis, respectively.
- Prospective resource for seven prospects (including East Bentley structure) at 17.7 MMstb on a risked 'best estimate' basis
- By summing the 2P reserves, the 2C 'best case' contingent resource is 115 MMstb of oil. This number is comparable to the 122 MMstb released in 2009 by RPS, but can not be interpreted to include the prospective resource that would not be reclassified to reserves in the FFD by the SSP drainage. The current Xcite release does not clarify that the remainder of the main Bentley field resource (not including the Bentley East structure) is excluded.
- Our conclusion is that the new third-party reserve engineers are being conservative with Xcite management with the current RAR and that the results from the horizontal 9/3b-6z well confirm and/or add to the volumetric calculations of the oil in place.
- The NPV10% (after tax) value of the 2P plus 2C for the core area in the north part of the Bentley amounts to $1.35 billion, and when the upside resource of the entire field is included to bring the total recoverable resources up to 200 MMstb, the NPV10% (after tax) is approximately $2.4 billion.
- In our opinion, the markets have overreacted due to the format of the reserve/ resource reporting. We are maintaining our BUY ratung and $10.49 target price.

Summary of TRACS 2011 Reserve Assessment Report
MMSTB
FSP Oil Reserves
1P 22
2P 28
3P 35
SSP Contingent Resource
Low 73
Medium 87
High 101
Prospective 17.7
Main Bentley (est) 46

Total Resource FSP + SSP Main Bentley (est) Total
Low 95 46 141
Best 115 46 161
High 136 46 182

Plenty to digest in the above, but makes a lot more sense than the TRACS RAR RNS imo.

I look forward to reading the feedback and would encourage any of you on other boards to circulate this assessment for general discussion.

I believe the market has misinterpreted the RNS and Xcite has been severely oversold. This has been accentuated by the insane amount of short term, leveraged positions taken on Xcite in readiness for the report where margin calls and stop gaps made a bad situation much worse.

Of course you must dyor but I think the reiteration of the $10.49 target price and NPV10% (after tax) value of $2.4 billion on the entire field is compelling.

NM


markymar - 16 May 2011 20:53 - 1685 of 3002

jkd - 16 May 2011 21:15 - 1686 of 3002

m
my previous post no.1683 was based upon the info contained in h98's post, the content of which i do not know the date of.
however i do agree with Lambournes comment that this now carries more risk than conventional UK North Sea developments.
maybe that was why the ceo felt it necessary to comment about "other than conventional" techniques. maybe not.
i stand by my post no.1642 p83. existing holders will take a different view and stance to that of potential "new" buyers. new buyers and existing buyers who consider averaging down, Beware and be careful. if nothing else do use money management and have a plan B.
hope it flys, but i doubt it. just my opinion.
regards
and good luck
edit and ps. i have no position. and no i never have.just trying to be honest from a neutral view point.

Balerboy - 16 May 2011 21:48 - 1687 of 3002

I can't find at the mo an operations chart/list does anyone have a list of events forth coming for the rest of this yr and early next?
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