there seems to be some heavy resistance around these level with a lot of potential upside.

GSK puts Lucozade and Ribena drink brands up for sale

LONDON | Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:45pm BST
(Reuters) - GlaxoSmithKline is to sell soft drink brands Lucozade and Ribena in a move analysts believe will raise over 1 billion pounds and focus its consumer health business on global products.

The plan was announced on Wednesday alongside first-quarter results that saw sales at Britain's biggest drugmaker drop a slightly smaller-than-expected 3 percent from a year ago.

China security ministry says GSK executives confess to crimes

BEIJING | Thu Jul 11, 2013 7:14am BST
(Reuters) - Executives of British drug maker GlaxoSmithKline Plc in China have confessed to charges of bribery and tax law violations after initial questioning by Chinese police, China's security ministry said on Thursday.

The company is suspected of offering bribes to government officials, medical associations, hospitals and doctors to boost sales and prices, the ministry said in a statement on its website.

GSK is also suspected of using fake receipts in unspecified tax law violations, the ministry said.

MAGE A-3 Phase III DERMA Study Results

GlaxoSmithKline plc (LSE:GSK) today announced that an independent analysis of the DERMAi study, a Phase III randomised, blinded, placebo-controlled trial of the MAGE-A3 cancer immunotherapeuticii showed that the study did not meet its first co-primary endpoint as it did not significantly extend disease-free survival (DFSiii) when compared to placebo in the MAGE-A3 positive population.

3rd Quarter Results

April 23 - After the hallabaloo:


JP Morgan Cazenove: Neutral - Reiteration

Credit Suisse: Underperform - TP held at 1600p - Reiteration

UBS: Neutral - TP held at 1500p - Reiteration

Deutsche: Hold - TP raised from 1620p to 1750p - Reiteration

Societe Generale: Buy - TP held at 2088p - Reiteration

June 16: Societe Generale: Buy - TP: 2100p.

Ages since I saw such an upbeat TP.

News not RNS

More about the GSK sex tape

July 2: Deutsche: Hold - TP: 1630p.

Latest episode in the GSK saga.

July 7: Credit Suisse: Underperform; TP: 1600p
.

July 14:
Jefferies reiterates: Hold - TP down from 1610 to 1460p.

Credit Suissse reiterates: Underperform - TP retained: 1600p.

July 15: UBS: reiterates Neutral - TP: 1500p.

GSK falls after results.

GlaxoSmithKline good value at 1428p

BY ROBERT SUTHERLAND SMITH | TUESDAY 29 JULY 2014

The fall in the GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) share price to1428p is a story in its self. Not only is it back to where it approximately was in 2013 but it now stands on what I perceive to be a three year support level. (Have a look for yourselves.) If so, will the share price hold there and is it a reason to buy the shares as cheap at 1428p on an historic dividend yield of 5.4% and on the basis that “there will always be a Glaxo”; an approach that has generally speaking been a good point to buy the shares when the news looks bleakest?

The results for the first half of the current year were dire. With turnover down 12% should be attribute that to the simple strength of Sterling. Evidently not; because when you take that into account revenue still fell 3% in constant exchange value terms. Was the full impact of generic competition for its main drugs; or the fact that having been caught up in accusations of bribing doctors in China to prescribe its drugs a head of those of competitors? The company has reportedly now made drastic reforms to its selling and marketing policies my breaking such a link to sales personnel pay. It is impossible to judge from outside the company.

The annual dividend last year cost £3.7 billion. It is good to see that balance sheet end year cash has been rising for £3.9 billion the previous year to £5.2 billion last year. So in the meantime, there appears to be sufficient cash in the balance sheet to finance dividends, though cash generation has to be an ever ongoing process. Glancing at the market consensus estimates, I see that there is still a clear expectation of a progressive dividend policy with consensus of analysts expecting dividends to increase 4% this year and about 4.4% next year putting, Glaxo shares on prospective annual dividend yields of an estimated 5.7% for this year and 6.0% for next year. It is to be noted that the Q2 dividend payment of 19p for Q2 was reportedly 6% up on the amount paid last year.

The market in its consensus forecasts is also estimating a 13% fall in earnings this year but an increase of 8% next year. When reading the report you will see that the management speaks confidently about its drug development programme referring to 40 near approval entities in late stage development. It may not have a cure for the Ebola virus but it will be bring much needed new drusg to market. It adds that 30% of its R&D assets have, in the view of the company, the potential to “first class” in the companies chosen areas of therapeutic medicines. Furthermore, the joint venture with Novartis in vaccines which the two companies have put intellectual property and research and development assets, has the potential, says GSK, to grow around half of the Group’s future revenue. In the final analysis, the company has now openly discussed a possible future sale of its consumer, over the counter health care business, if necessary, with the caveat that retaining it provides scales of economy for the business in the important emerging markets. It does not sound as though they are rushing to do that.

It strikes me that the perceived three year support line on the share price chart sits nicely with a high yield together suggesting that the shares look good value in dividend yield terms after a period of bad news and particularly poor results.

- See more at: http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6849/glaxosmithkline-good-value-at-1428p#sthash.ACUhuWnY.dpuf

August 1, 2014 6:11 pm
GlaxoSmithKline vulnerable to Pfizer bid after price slump
Bryce ElderBy Bryce ElderAuthor alerts

GlaxoSmithKline’s fall to an 18-month low might make the drugmaker vulnerable, according to Berenberg analysts.
A 20 per cent slump over the past year has left GSK’s market value lower than Pfizer’s rejected $120bn offer for AstraZeneca, Berenberg highlighted. “GSK may just be too large for Pfizer to handle, but as a plan B it has some merits,” the broker told clients.

As well as benefiting from GSK’s low 20 per cent tax rate, Pfizer could create a world-class vaccines business via a takeover, Berenberg argued. It also noted that GSK and Pfizer already collaborate on ViiV Healthcare, an HIV joint venture.
Assuming a 45 per cent premium to Glaxo’s current valuation, Pfizer would need to find $74bn in cash to fund a $164bn offer for GSK, said the broker, adding: “This is perhaps a stretch, but not totally unrealistic.”
Pfizer was seen as unlikely to be interested in GSK’s consumer products joint venture with Novartis, which was agreed in April as part of a $20bn asset swap. Oncology, which GSK is shedding, would be a better fit with Pfizer but would also be a point of competitive overlap, said the broker.
GSK closed down 1.4 per cent at £14.17, having rallied from a session low of £14.03.

Neil Woodford: GlaxoSmithKline's troubles are only temporary
Renowned fund manager gives embattled drug giant a vote of confidence

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/pharmaceuticalsandchemicals/11013056/Neil-Woodford-GlaxoSmithKlines-troubles-are-only-temporary.html

GlaxoSmithKline plc Offers 40% Upside For Canny Investors
By Alessandro Pasetti - Wednesday, 6 August, 2014

GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) (NYSE: GSK.US) shares are down 9.6% in 2014. In the last twelve months of trading, they have lost 14.7% of value. If Glaxo is serious about slimming down in the right places, however, upside for shareholders could be 40% or more.

Consumer Health Business

Glaxo’s joint venture with Novartis will create a consumer health company with £6.5bn of revenues, it was announced earlier this year. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2015. The British company will retain a 63.5% stake in the venture.

While it appears that structural changes are on the cards, Andrew Witty, Glaxo’s chief executive offer, runs the risk of losing the backing of key shareholders.

In an interview with the Financial Times on 27 July, he hinted at the possibility of spinning off Glaxo’s consumer health-care division from core activities.

“GlaxoSmithKline has no plans to spin off its consumer health-care division, a spokesman said,” Bloomberg reported the following day.

If anything, Glaxo should do a better job in managing expectations. That said, a spin-out of the consumer health business — whose capital requirements for research and development (R&D) are relatively small — may not be the best solution for shareholders. And it may not be the strategy that Mr Witty has in mind right now.

“Well, I never understood why they were in consumer health to start with,” a senior pharma analyst in the City told me. “That’s the obvious thing they could spin out, though they’ve been building it up for a while so it would seem a rather odd move,” he added.

What’s There To Break Up?
Glaxo may break up its operations geographically, although such a strategy would pose serious problems with regard to capital allocation. There’s a better alternative, in my view. Core R&D expenditures stood at £3.4bn in 2013 – some 90% of which were invested in core pharmaceutical activities. The consumer health operations are non-core, and account for roughly 10% of Glaxo’s total R&D investment.

Take Convergence Pharmaceuticals, which was spun out of Glaxo in 2010. It is planning an IPO of up to £100m either in London or in New York. Glaxo retained a minority stake in Convergence, and will benefit if the float is successful. More such deals would make a lot of sense in the next 12 months.

Decisive action is needed. From revenues to earnings, every single P&L item was a big disappointment in the second quarter. The bribery scandal in China is also a big problem, but that’s fully priced into Glaxo shares, in my view.

Operationally, Glaxo isn’t in great shape, as quarterly results showed. Its product pipeline is better than that of AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN) (NYSE: AZN.US), but its existing drugs are faced with fierce competition as cheaper alternatives pose a threat to its market share globally.

Glaxo Vs Astra
Forward trading multiples based on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation in 2014 and 2015 indicate that Glaxo’s shares trade at a discount of between 9% and 16% versus Astra’s.

Glaxo is more profitable than Astra at operating level, though — and is also expected to remain more profitable into 2015. Its net leverage is higher than Astra’s, but is manageable, which signals a more efficient balance sheet. As a result of a better capital structure, Glaxo offers higher returns to shareholders than Astra.

Astra shares still price in an M&A premium in the region of 25%, in my view.

That premium may well be assigned to Glaxo by Pfizer, particularly if Glaxo shows a commitment to shrink direct R&D investments ahead of disposals. Alternatively, a more efficient Glaxo may decide to go for Pfizer, which has lost more than $40bn of market value in less than one year. Then, say in the second half of 2015, Glaxo may even be able to impose its own terms at the negotiating table.

Glaxo shares offer a terrific dividend yield, and should be included in a diversified portfolio, just as our analysts suggest.

http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2014/08/06/glaxosmithkline-plc-offers-40-upside-for-canny-investors/?source=uhpsithla0000003

GSK China saga

GSK Chairman hunt