Oh dear, two large companies combine and, like an intergalactic "event" only negative matter remains....a case of 1 + 1 = 0.2

Let me say - sp a year ago was 10x today's - so this business has earned its place in the 90% club....and maybe more to come, as they will need to go overseas for cash, if the UK is dry.

I doubt there is a UK Builder with enough dosh to bail-out this dullard. They all thought they could expand until the UK burst with immigrants - yet they consistently went for pricier properties and projects where ( even now), there is some doubt whether there are enough jobs to support new-build developments.

EDIT ( Nov 2015 ) - Seven years on and we're at 183p - so anyone that bought at the all-time Low has done very well - but the Market was fearful and that meant few were Buying. 2009/2010 averaged about 40p - that was a good time if you had the LT cash.
With the rise and yield-multiplier effect, this is looking like Buying it was "probably" inspired.... but it has not regained that earlier Value - which will surely take a lot longer.

Full note

Source of opportunity

We are upgrading Taylor Wimpey to Buy from Neutral. At its current valuation, we believe the risk-reward of the stock is positive. Despite having the highest level of financial leverage in the sector, Taylor Wimpey has been
relatively aggressive in its land write-downs, and we expect future gross margin above 10% as a result. Unlike other housebuilders, Taylor Wimpey has been more conservative in accounting for tax assets resulting from land write-downs, arguably understating its NAV relative to its peers this may not be fully anticipated by the market yet.

Catalyst

The recent house price recovery in 2H09 makes December 2009 write-backs more likely in our view, especially given Taylor Wimpeys more aggressive write-down policy of the past two years. A more cautious outlook regarding 2010 house prices may limit the potential for write-backs in this case, we believe the companys gross margin outlook will provide investors with confidence regarding the companys ability to generate returns over the next few years, despite depressed house prices.A potential spin off or sale of the Taylor Wimpey US operations (as reported in the Financial Times earlier this
year) could also act as a catalyst (current book value of 560 mn),potentially allowing a reduction in financial leverage and an increase in the groups ability to make opportunistic land acquisitions. The company has raised
this possibility, but it is still considering its strategic options and there is no firm intention to dispose of this operation at this time.

Valuation

Our 6-month price target of 47p (from 52p) is based on 1.2x FY2013E tangible book, discounted to current value terms using a discount rate of 10%.

Key risks

Key downside risks to our view and price target include higher than expected price pressure, weaker employment and increasing interest rates (putting pressure on affordability on a monthly payment basis).

A whole list of broker Buys today....

23-Dec-09 Taylor Wimpey TW. Royal Bank of Scotland Buy 36.90p - - Reiteration

23-Dec-09 Taylor Wimpey TW. Numis Add 36.90p 1,450.00p - Reiteration

23-Dec-09 Taylor Wimpey TW. Goldman Sachs Buy 36.90p - - Reiteration

23-Dec-09 Taylor Wimpey TW. ABN Amro Buy 36.90p - - Reiteration

Hmmmmm........... 1450p target price by Numis! No target date though, so choose any particular decade.

1450p i'd be a millionare !!!

TW. is starting to move upwards...looks very undervalued at 37p.

Broker upgrades look to have finally helped ,up several days in a row. :-)

British homeowners continue to trim mortgage debt

Survey finds mortgage debt fell by 4.9bn in third quarter
Britons increasingly shun personal loans and credit cards

Britons reduced their outstanding mortgage debt by 4.9bn during the third quarter of the year, figures from the Bank of England showed today.

The amount of money people unlocked from their homes was negative for the sixth quarter in a row, as the economic downturn, combined with recent house price falls, prompted homeowners to focus on repaying their debts.

However, the figures showed the rate at which people are paying down mortgages had slowed for the third consecutive quarter.

In the first and second quarters of this year, homeowners reduced their mortgage debt by closer to 7bn each quarter.

The repayments follow a decade in which homeowners consistently withdrew equity from their homes, seeing this as a cheap way to fund bit purchases or pay off other debts.

In the first quarter of 2007, shortly before house prices reached their peak, homeowners withdrew 13.8bn from their properties a figure equal to just over 6% of average post-tax household income.

The repayments in the third quarter of this year were worth 2% of post-tax income.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said the injection of housing equity was the result of people hoping to improve their personal balance sheets in the light of problems in the UK economy.

He added that low interest rates on savings have made it more attractive for many people to use any spare funds they have to reduce their mortgages. He said: "Housing equity withdrawal has been used significantly to support consumer spending in recent years. Consequently, the sharp turnaround from substantial withdrawals up to and including the first quarter of 2008 to a net injection of equity over the past six quarters has added to the constraints on consumer spending."

Figures published last week by the British Bankers' Association suggest Britons are also increasingly turning away from taking out personal loans and using credit cards.

The figures showed that the amount of unsecured debt has plummeted in the past 12 months.

While borrowing to buy homes reached its highest level in two years last month, the value of new personal loans in November stood at 1.1bn, a fall of 43.7% compared with the same month last year.

Interesting read from the Independant....




Feeling bold? Then dip into our 'special situations' portfolio

With a string of companies showing signs of recovery, now is the time to be daring. James Moore picks some high-risk hopefuls


Saturday, 2 January 2010

After 2008's annus horriblis for The Independent's tips, 2009 was an annus mirabilis.


The FTSE 100 posted a gain of 22 per cent despite the general gloom surrounding the economy, but The Independent's portfolio comfortably outpaced it, with seven out of nine tips in positive territory. Our notional 9,000 invested in them would have produced 12,301, compared with 10,980 if the same amount had been invested in the blue-chip index.

And so to this year. Playing it safe really doesn't appear to be a great strategy just what can realistically be considered as a "safe" stock in the current climate? So given the stunning performance of last year's portfolio, we're going to take risks again. There are a few lower-risk picks below, but we've also taken a punt on a number of "recovery plays": companies which have found themselves under the weather which we think can now overcome their difficulties and produce a healthy return. As such, you could consider this to be The Independent's "special situations" portfolio.

If we can outperform the FTSE 100 again (the vast majority of "active" fund managers struggle with this, despite the high fees they charge), perhaps we should consider taking this up professionally. If that's not put the mark of Cain on this year's portfolio, nothing else will.

Many would consider our first pick the riskiest of the lot. JJB Sports nearly went bust last year, and its most recent trading update was hardly glowing with optimism. Then there are all the unseemly goings-on among the "big men" either at or circling around the company and its rivals. There have been dirty dealings aplenty, black PR, complaints to the FSA, outraged regulatory announcements. Still, David Jones has got the company refinancing, the worst performing stores have been shut and those that remain will (finally) be fully stocked in the first quarter. The market leader, Sports Direct, might be cheap, but as a shopping experience it's truly horrible. The company's focus on high-margin sports equipment should help the bottom line, and then there's the small matter of the World Cup. These shares are only going one way.

The London Stock Exchange is, arguably, more of a risky play. Its market share has been under pressure from new entrants, and signs of a double-dip downturn would do nothing to help sentiment. But we've been impressed by the new chief executive, Xavier Rolet, who's been making strenuous efforts to improve a difficult relationship with customers while filling some strategic holes. The exchange, for example, now owns a technology company important given that the kit has been provided by others in the past. Revenue from flotations is poised to pick up in the first half, and although the acquisition of the "Turquoise" trading platform saddles it with a loss-maker, Mr Rolet can turn it around. The shares have also been unduly depressed by worries about a sale by Dubai, which holds a substantial chunk. That's a short-term problem, though. And even if Mr Rolet runs into difficulty, a takeover remains a real possibility. This is an easy buy.

It is well understood by all that a punt on a small-cap, cash-burning company that has little revenue or profit to show for its efforts is at best a risky bet. But, by picking the eventual winners from that pile of companies, investors can end up sitting very pretty indeed. We think one of them can be GW Pharmaceuticals. It receives more than its fair share of attention (and that's no bad thing) for its use of the cannabis plant, right, in its pain-relieving treatment, Sativex, which is already well on its way to becoming one of the success stories of the biotechnology sector. Sativex has successfully completed trials and is being tested for relieving the pain caused by a number of illnesses; it is already being used to help those with multiple sclerosis. Investors have learnt to expect great things from this company.

The problem with oil exploration companies is that for every Tullow (from penny share to FTSE 100) there's a bevy of Ramcos (now a green power company after its oil proved uneconomic) or Cadogans (which lost 90 per cent of its value after being racked by scandal). We think Heritage Oil can be one of the diamonds amid a lot of rough. Italy's Eni is tipped to buy its Ugandan assets for $1.35bn (839m). Some watchers are predicting that either Heritage's Lake Albert Basin partner Tullow will exercise its pre-emption rights, or that some third party may step in, kicking off a bidding war that can only be good news for Heritage. Either way, the company stands to see a major windfall in the near future. Meanwhile, Heritage's other major assets are in northern Iraq. It discovered 4.2 billion barrels of oil in Kurdistan earlier this year, and once the ups and downs of the Iraqi government's regulations are finally ironed out, it will be in a strong position in a fast-growing market.

On to tech, where the Government has pledged to provide everyone in Britain with broadband by 2012. The demand for ever faster internet is not going to abate any time soon. BT may be speeding up its roll-out of superfast broadband, and Virgin Media customers can subscribe to a service of 50Mb, but the biggest beneficiaries are those living in cities. People in more remote areas of the country just don't have the infrastructure in place to access broadband.

That is where the satellite broadband group Avanti Communications comes in. The company, which has previously used other satellites, is preparing to launch its own next year to provide broadband to UK customers. This month it secured funding to launch a second satellite, which will expand the business into Europe and parts of Africa and strengthen the UK business. Its chief executive, David Williams, says the group has a potential market of 100 million homes and businesses, and this looks like a good buy to us.

Now, that's the punts out of the way. On to the less risky plays, which should keep us out of complete disaster.

Anglo American is first up. The mining giant came within a whisker of losing its independence earlier this year, when the fitter, leaner and more aggressive Xstrata tempted shareholders with its so-called "merger of equals" deal. Xstrata believed it could hook Anglo on the cheap, and had it not been for the company's new chairman, Sir John Parker, who persuaded shareholders of the value of an independent Anglo American, it may well have won the day. Despite Sir John's efforts, Anglo's board got a fright, and since the bid collapsed in October it has been making great strides to cut away at its excess fat. The group has replaced a number of long-standing non-executive directors and has already sold off several non-core businesses, with more sell-offs promised. With commodity prices on the up after the slide of 12 months ago, miners are a good punt for investors, and Anglo American will need to stay on its toes to repay the backers who said no to Xstrata. If Anglo's current board fails, Xstrata, or others, could yet give a boost to Anglo shares by taking a second bite at the group.

On to tech again, where the rise and rise of pay-TV has seen the number of households willing to pay for Sky television soar past nine million, while Virgin Media is building up a nice little business of high-paying subscribers. For those who don't want to pay a monthly subscription but would still like access to a range of digital programming, there is Freeview and Freesat. As analysts have pointed out, after the digital switchover in 2012 everyone will have at least one set-top box in the house. This seems like a good opportunity for Pace. It's not a household name in the UK, but its set-top boxes are likely to sit on top of many household's televisions. The group builds these for companies including Sky and Freeview, who pass them on to customers. As the digital revolution gathers pace, this could be a canny pick.

Another "safer" bet, we think, is Taylor Wimpey, the most attractive of the housebuilders with a good land bank and reduced debts. The sector remains on bombed-out valuations after two tough years for the UK housing market. But while most independent forecasters see only a modest rises in house prices in 2010, transaction numbers will undoubtedly rise and remember that the Government has ambitious long-term targets for new builds that the Tories are unlikely to drop. This stock will benefit strongly from even a small shift in sentiment.

To shops again, and there is plenty to recommend in the home-shopping retailer N Brown. Its shares are currently cheap, trading on a 2010 price- earnings ratio of 10.6, a substantial discount to the retail sector. Operating in an under-served niche market, N Brown has a highly regarded management team and industry-leading operating profit margins. Its clothing sales are benefiting not only from the increased waistline of its core mid-life female customers, but from the shift to online shopping. The City expects N Brown to post a further improvement in declining customer arrears from bad debts in January, which should bode well for the rest of 2010.

Finally, we were intrigued to hear about Nanoco. Quantum dots conjured up images of James Bond and science-fiction heroes. The reality is more prosaic, but we think Nanoco Group could be a British technology star. Which means it will get bought up (at a healthy premium). What are quantum dots? Tiny particles of semiconductor materials, about one-thousandth of the thickness of a human hair, that produce very bright lights. They can be used in devices from light bulbs to televisions, but are much more energy-efficient than traditional methods and emit very little heat. Nanoco is the first company to mass-produce them commercially. Big contract wins with serious Japanese players are on the cards. This is our sleeper and it could outdo the lot of them if the boys in charge can live up to the hype.

FROM THE INDEPENDENT:-

Feeling bold? Then dip into our 'special situations' portfolio:-

With a string of companies showing signs of recovery, now is the time to be daring. James Moore picks some high-risk hopefuls


Saturday, 2 January 2010

And so to this year. Playing it safe really doesn't appear to be a great strategy just what can realistically be considered as a "safe" stock in the current climate? So given the stunning performance of last year's portfolio, we're going to take risks again.

There are a few lower-risk picks , but we've also taken a punt on a number of "recovery plays": companies which have found themselves under the weather which we think can now overcome their difficulties and produce a healthy return. As such, you could consider this to be The Independent's "special situations" portfolio.

Now, that's the punts out of the way. On to the less risky plays, which should keep us out of complete disaster.

Another "safer" bet, we think, is TAYLOR WIMPEY, the most attractive of the housebuilders with a good land bank and reduced debts.

The sector remains on bombed-out valuations after two tough years for the UK housing market.

But while most independent forecasters see only a modest rises in house prices in 2010, transaction numbers will undoubtedly rise and remember that the Government has ambitious long-term targets for new builds that the Tories are unlikely to drop.

This stock will benefit strongly from even a small shift in sentiment.

I just posted that above GF , you been on the booze ? :-)

ticking up nicely,our preferred builder.

Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey is selected by Nick Stockton, of Arnold Stansby. He says: We see negative market sentiment as overdone, not just towards Taylor Wimpey but the sector as a whole. Provided the double-dip in the economy does not happen, we expect a significant rebound in the share price.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Another tipping this one to recover strongly this year..

http://http://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/local/4834119.Diglis_waterfront_is_slowly_taking_shape/

Tried to post a link that wont open ,,sorry.

Off we go again regaining all our losses :-)

Just buy TW. you won't lose at all. Yippee!

BUY BUY BUY at 42p. Still cheap!

Another positive chart candidate Taylor Wimpey Looks like we could have a positive run out of this housebuilder especially in the season for housebuilding stocks.....



At christmas this broker had this target but I beleive its been upped again...

Broker recommendation

Date: 22 December, 2009

Broker: Goldman Sachs
Company: Taylor Wimpey

Recommendation:
upgrade to Buy from neutral - price target 47p

I'm happy ,this was a loser for me last month ,turned right round.