.

Well, the pressure succumbed in the end!

I sold a 1/3rd of my holding in FOGL, which leaves me with 1/3rd that is my very hard earn cash, and the other 1/3rd are free shares. So my logic being is (If) they rise further.......Fantastic, but if it turns into a duster, then I will buy back in.......When they hit the basement.

I see many opportunities in all the Falkland shares, especially when/if FOGL hit a commercial find!!!!

Good luck everyone.

Proselenes- 12 Sep 2012 14:20 - 1657 of 1694

Now cynic and his brother chuckles have no clue if bad or good news is coming - notice how quiet they all go.

When news comes they will claim to either be short or holding none on bad news - or claim to be holding longs if good news.

I by the way, regardless, have a long position

------------------------------------------------

When news comes I will claim my position to be what it has always been, no position at all.

If you have a long position now, it's a very recent one, as quite obviously you sold your main holding in a panic on Monday.

No point in posting during the sell off nor the rise today. The results will be known soon enough. Seems all the mugs have convinced themselves it's a gusher now, whilst on Monday they'd convinced themselves it was a duster. Amusing to watch, participate? No thanks.

Balerboy - What does anything have to do with a prostate??

Wasn't it the exact same last year with Sea Lion? Everybody panicked the few days before they released the results, and then the results were great!

Don't recall any panic over Sea Lion except the poor oil quality runour which happened after the announcement of an oil find. RKH's Sp had dropped to about 38p pre discovery on DES news.

Pro - You are assuming that if the upper 3 targets had oil/gas that there would have been more good news released already. Was there any way of doing the logging before all four targets were drilled??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AZOdalnYP0

well its in the balance...Is there or isn't there HC's.. i'm still optimistic.

Yes must admit as time goes by the pendulum is swinging towards positive on my positometer :)

Do we think the longer it takes for results the better or is that a bad sign?

If we go by the seismic that everybody can access by logging on to their website : then there is either a massive water, gas or oil discovery to be made with a very large contact area....that seismic has not changed....FOGL are going to be mighty unlucky if there is nothing but water discovered......I'm convinced that hydrocarbons are present but in sufficient quantity ?...only they can say.....this is a well where the downside is 40p prior to the next spud but an upside of £10 or more......this is why I'm staying put....it's risky...you must be prepared for disappointment...I am......exploration wells are mighty risky but look at GKP....when they come right...it's fantastic....so as long as you make £3...and are prepared to lose £2.....: you are ahead...that's the way to work this out.....the bottom line is that there is a big chance of something commercial being found and the bonus of Scotia being the next well...

jbc - as a bystander looking in, I don't think how long it takes matters, FOGL have stated within 7 days and any number of theories can be floated as to why it won't take 7 days or it will take all 7.

I was convinced on Monday this was a duster, today, like everyone else, no longer sure.

But it's typical AIM oil exploration where speculation drives the SP in a crazy fashion!

You are no longer sure because the rns just reassured people that drilling was ok with no issues.....market reacted badly because of no update on hydrocarbons discovered...but even if they had...: they couldn't aware the market of that eventuality....they just couldn't....Rockhopper managed to keep quiet about a superb discovery....this lot are perhaps and I say perhaps doing the same.....It's good that there is Scotia or Nimrod backup because otherwise it would be difficult...

of this stock, i would neither a borrower nor a lender be

Cynic : it's nice to have a wise old owl like yourself around....I'm a bit too much of a kamikaze for my own liking...

It probably won't go above £10. Never did. Didn't go that high with PVR or RKH. Probably more like £7

rf - The RNS reassured me of nothing to be honest. If they had discovered carbons in the upper targets I think they would have said as much, but then that's just an opinion.

today, everyone has been getting excited because sp jumped to close at (a crummy) 73p ..... however, BOR moved just 2p and RKH were down a smidge ...... for these reasons, i retain my belief that today's jump was merely bear closing in a squeeze, perhaps exaggerated by some demented lemmings getting over-excited ....... for all that, i am certainly not prepared to marry money with mouth and go short - far too risky ...... in any case, as posted many times before, if FOGL have indeed pulled off "fluke of the decade", then RKH, which i do hold, will zip away too

RKH will zip away in penines

FOGL will zip away in pounds


Its still a good gamble with the odds depending on what price you bought in at.


This is tigher than RKH ship hence no paper leaks,its dead.

is it not time the "shares" journos stopped ramping?

Brave call by CC over at LSE. He called Stebbing well correct (failure to get to TD) and called Darwin results correct.

Lets see if he gets Loligo results correct - OR NOT.


QUOTE


.............And now for Loligo...

Wed 18:18


1) Oil discovery with net pay in multiple stacked fans starting at T1 and T2 all the way through to Three Bears. Potential for further pay deeper down but not evaluated in this well.

2) Extensive reservoir with excellent permeability and porosity

3) Easy drilling conditions

4) Will return to appraise full extent of Loligo in next campaign

5) Rig to move to Scotia prospect

All IMO.

Good luck and welcome to the new Santos basin imo

:-)

The Upper Cretaceous was to be "poked" with this drill. This is why the target depth is where it is, to hit into the Upper Cretaceous.

The Upper Cretaceous is the dark green colour band in the pic below, below that is the light green band mid-Cretaceous - this has proven very high quality reservoir sands (from the Toroa well). (Noble has farmed into mid-Cretaceous plays apart from where they are excluded).



Toroa also had an excellent top seal and poor (non-existent) lateral seal. FOGL have nothing assigned in the Upper Cretaceous, so it is very important to get some data from there - which is why they were to poke into it at TD.


Going to CC's post on LSE - I am intrigued because the targets are known as T1, T1 Deep, Trigg, Trigg Deep and then finally at the bottom Three Bears.

Now, actually the whole Tertiary section is split into 3 - The upper section of Tertiary with T1 and T1 deep targets is called T1. The middle section with the Trigg targets is called T2. The lower section with Three Bears is called T3.

CC in his post referred to oil in T1 and T2 and all the way down to Three Bears - most people having a bear faced ramp would not have used that terminology. They would not have referred to the Triggs as T2. Which may OR MAY NOT (capitals, HIGH RISK), mean he does know something about the results.

We shall see in due course - nothing like sticking your neck out on the line and making a big call.

bankmanager (BM) made his call at the weekend - which led to the share price collapse on Monday - by triggering hair triggers of people scared out of their minds by Chariots news.

CC has now made his call, but only after a significant rise and a big volume upwards day.

If BM is wrong - he has caused mayhem on the markets by starting it all off, like throwing a match into a dry Forest and then saying its not your fault the entire Forest burnt down. If BM is correct then kudo's to him.

IF CC is wrong - at this stage I do not think he is ramping anyone into buying with his post - most people are in positions now ready for news. If he is right then kudo's to him.

I know jack about the result - could be good, could be bad - I am waiting, like everyone, for news.