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U.S indexes fell back as profit taking & interest rate worries depressed the markets. BP's first quarter has come in higher than market expectations with the U.K underperforming the U.S & Asia. They are going to sell half of their the petrochemical business and are considering an IPO on the refining part of the company. Extra output from its newly acquired Russian assets helped it to boost its daily production to just over 4 million barrels a day. Tesco said its Tokyo unit hopes to take over an indebted Japanese supermarket chain after recently giving it some help. Westbury housebuilder said annual profits rose 24 percent to 115.6 million pounds, in line with market estimates, delivering an 11th straight year of profit and dividend growth Game Group reported an annual 4.5 percent rise in profit to 34.7 million pounds in line with expectations and said it was doubling its dividend to 2.0 pence. Turnover rose 8.3 percent to 607 million pounds but the firm sales fell 9.0 percent in the 11 weeks to April 17, they said they aim to beat a difficult market in 2004 British American Tobacco reported a three percent dip in first-quarter profits hit by the strength of the pound but said momentum in 2004 will continue. This profit of to 454 million pounds was well below market expectations

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Agree TP, I always follow the signals and the market direction.
If I ever fix the Delorean then I'll follow my own ideas on
direction, until then the Market direction will suffice.:-)

By the way, in August 03, the FTSE nearly hit 4300.
Here we are, 8 months down the line and only about
250 points higher. In fact we recently dropped back
down below 4300.
Where's the fire? ;-)

Melnibone.

lol mel looking for an alternative fuel source for mine, plutonium not so readlily available these days for some reason:) Right of out now til arvo, scalped my 10pts this morning off ftse in 3 lots! just love them coms:(

The 10 day intraday chart is now a choice on the header.

This is one of the reasons why I'm still cautious.
I've multiplied the 200Day MA by 5 to give a 1000 Day MA which should
work as a 200Week MA on a weekly chart. It comes out the same on a proper
weekly chart on BigCharts.com with a 200 MA, but I can't seem to post one
of them, I always seem to screw it up.

I like to keep an eye on the really big picture. Note the overall
direction of the market and the MA.
Of course, trends don't go on forever, so maybe we will enter a new
period of Nirvana, where everyone is paper rich with prices that new
buyers MAY pay the holders for their wares if they decide to sell.

Until then, I think I'll just stick to short term trading and putting
cash in the bank each week. Not paper profits in a portfolio. :-)

Melnibone.

Here's a one year chart of HBOS.
Note the price 12 months ago and the price now.
Where's the difference?

How much have LTBH buy and forget holders made this Year?
How much have short term traders made this Year?

Melnibone.

GSK over 12 months.

Again, how much would I have made by holding?

Melnibone.

Mel

Anyone would think you were having a pop at me lol.

As for LTBH I have had a good year on 2 stocks and a flat year on 2 stocks so partly backs up the theory but as ever depends on which share. As for GSK I am currently short (from 1170p) prior to results later in week and am nervously awaiting SKP results announcement thursday -i may be LTBH no longer on this one.

anyone else trading GSK currently?

Another investor's favourite.
SHEL over one year.

Shares are for trading, not squirreling away.
Companies that want your money, say you should invest for
a minimum of 5 years.
Don't get me posting 5 year charts, they'll make you ill. :-)

OK, look longer term. Looks good?
Now factor in inflation and fees.
The financial industry is there for them, not you.
They're constantly working out ways to re-package the same
tired old stuff and part you from some your money.
It's been going on since Job was a lad.

You can't have a world full of winners and no losers.
There's no easy money for everyone.
Just for those that already have it.
And the finance industry has yours.

Rant over. Can you tell I'm bored. ;-)

Melnibone.

Forgot you are an HBOS fan, Fundamentalist.

Nothing intended, just using a big favourite investors stock as an example.:-)

Think I'll go for a coffee until the US opens.
Otherwise, no telling where this thread will take me today! :-)

Melnibone.

Mel - i am an hbos fan but have been trading it this year mainly.


As for LTBH - just to prove that it depends which share you are in Next is a popular LTBH and you'd have been happy to hold that this year

afternoon everybody:
Just got back home and opened the post.
Guess what I have been sent a Contract Note by international Equity Consultants( these are the guys who rang me last week sometime trying to sell atlantic poly plants at USD 8 and who have applied for certification but are notr listed on the Yankee stock exchange as yet)
I had a phone call from them yesterday and was asked on the update on my side -I asked them to send me more info than i would make up my mind-which would be in a weeks time.

Anyway no info arrived but a Contract note for "you have bought 650 atlantic polyplants inc (common shares)reg s144 at USD 8 comm USD 50 total due in USD 5250 on or before 30th april 2004. payment to be made by telegraphic transfer to: Melon United Bank,boca raton,florida.aba nbr:067009646(swift) acct no: 0221002762. beneficiary account: Poly financial services inc: ref: IEC.

Their covering Letter has a Barcelona address.-but was posted from Taunton.It says its from their settlements dept but no signarure or name.

So guys any ideas or do i have to leave the country!!! I am absolutely fuming but am posting this in case their is a spate of this going on and nobody gets these "CON -tracts".

rgds
zarif

Zarif

Ignore it - if they try and get you to pay, report them to the FSA (trading standards may also be interested). They have to be licenced in the UK to be able to make you pay - and I bet they are not.

thanks Lw:
Did a bit of Google Hunting like Columbo and found this site:
www.internationalec.co.uk
and the address is the same one for barcelona.

rgds
zarif

Zarif, send the details to the Mail on Sunday.

They've got a guy there who loves getting his teeth into
this kind of stuff.

He exposes people and reports them to the FSA every week.
It also warns other people, they have a large readership,
which will stop a lot of other folk getting conned.

Melnibone.

Anyone fancy this 3 day downtrend channel continuing?

Or are we still in favour of the 10 day uptrend with this just part
of it?

Melnibone.

Thanks guys for your kind help and sound advice- I am just going to ignore it and if and when they ring then i am going to give them a mouthful.
rgds
zarif

Croc and TP would probably advise better than me, but here's
my view for what it's worth.

Strong Downtrend of lower lows and lower highs.

50 day ema is about to cross down over the 200 day ema.
Very bearish, opposite of the Golden Cross.

Volume/Liquidity is poor.
Spread of 1p on a 6p stock is poor.
Market Cap and turnover is tiny.

Don't really understand why you have bought and are averaging
down a presumably losing position instead of operating a stop loss?

You must have some pretty stong reasons for holding this?

Melnibone.

would have thought bp sp would be dropping given that russian mafia want their man kicked out and visa problems etc......25% of output for bp is in russia, scary.

surprised that sp has not collapsed given that dudly has fled cuntry ad is in hiding....and bp staf have left russia

MOSCOW , Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Russia central bank stepped into the market and sold up to $4 billion on Thursday to brake the rouble's fall, while shares went into free-fall despite a much awaited shareholder peace deal on oil company TNK-BP.

The rouble fell as low as 30.41, its lowest since the current composition of the basket was set at 0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars in February 2007.

Russia's benchmark share index closed 3.94 percent lower at 1,526.57 < .IRTS>, less than a point above the intraday low that marked the index's weakest level this year. The RTS has not seen levels this low since October 2006.

Falling Western markets and fears that capital outflows could accelerate outweighed a long-awaited end to a conflict between BP and its local partners, which had played out in the international media and poisoned sentiment.

'It is easier to undermine investor trust than it is to revive it,' Da Vinci Capital Management Head of Research Alexander Orlov said.

The rouble's move took its combined losses for the last two days to around 60 kopecks or 2 percent.

That appeared to galvanise the central bank into its first major intervention since it sold an estimated $12-$13 billion in two days during the height of Russia's military conflict with Georgia in early August.

'The move from a fixed-currency regime to a more flexible one is part of the central bank's long-term strategy,' said Vladimir Osakovsky, a Moscow-based analyst at UniCredit.

'But we have growing political risks in Russia which have caused capital outflows. Due to this, the volatility turned out to be much greater and the central bank is playing the role of a stabiliser of extremes.'



CONFLICTS, OIL

The rouble closed around 30.39 versus the basket.

'It seems that the central bank's offer is located around 30.40-30.41 roubles to the basket,' said a dealer at a major foreign bank in Moscow.

Russian asset prices have been slashed by the outflow of foreign capital, with foreign investors spooked by the TNK-BP conflict, an unexpected government attack on Mechel, and the military conflict with Georgia and the subsequent souring of relations with the West.

A fall in oil prices from their July peak also weighed heavy. Oil and gas shares account for more than half of the RTS index.

Da Vinci's Orlov said the stock market was rife with rumours that investment committees had decided to pull more money out of Russia in anticipation of redemptions, and would not reverse their position until the scale of further outflows became clear.

Analysts at BNP Paribas said Thursday's data on gold and forex reserves [ID:nMOS005307] indicated a further $2 billion in capital had left Russia last week, adding to outflows of over $20 billion since the start of the conflict with Georgia.

Allowing greater rouble volatility is a step towards the central bank's medium-term aim of moving to an inflation-targeting regime from one focused on the exchange rate. But it is also reluctant to allow extreme moves, and has the power to stop them, as seen on Thursday.

'Most likely when people saw that the central bank is defending the rouble at a certain level, the potential for further appreciation (of the basket) disappeared,' said Osakovsky at UniCredit.

'It's impossible to play against the central bank, taking into account that it has over half a trillion dollars of reserves.'

(Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh, Toni Vorobyova and Melissa Akin; Editing by Victoria Main, Swaha Pattanaik) Keywords: RUSSIA MARKETS/

Gus comment:- pressure on the rouble may be just what the doctor ordered and may have been helpful to BP in negotiations imho. Still lets hope things turn out ok.