.

of this stock, i would neither a borrower nor a lender be

Cynic : it's nice to have a wise old owl like yourself around....I'm a bit too much of a kamikaze for my own liking...

It probably won't go above £10. Never did. Didn't go that high with PVR or RKH. Probably more like £7

rf - The RNS reassured me of nothing to be honest. If they had discovered carbons in the upper targets I think they would have said as much, but then that's just an opinion.

today, everyone has been getting excited because sp jumped to close at (a crummy) 73p ..... however, BOR moved just 2p and RKH were down a smidge ...... for these reasons, i retain my belief that today's jump was merely bear closing in a squeeze, perhaps exaggerated by some demented lemmings getting over-excited ....... for all that, i am certainly not prepared to marry money with mouth and go short - far too risky ...... in any case, as posted many times before, if FOGL have indeed pulled off "fluke of the decade", then RKH, which i do hold, will zip away too

RKH will zip away in penines

FOGL will zip away in pounds


Its still a good gamble with the odds depending on what price you bought in at.


This is tigher than RKH ship hence no paper leaks,its dead.

is it not time the "shares" journos stopped ramping?

Brave call by CC over at LSE. He called Stebbing well correct (failure to get to TD) and called Darwin results correct.

Lets see if he gets Loligo results correct - OR NOT.


QUOTE


.............And now for Loligo...

Wed 18:18


1) Oil discovery with net pay in multiple stacked fans starting at T1 and T2 all the way through to Three Bears. Potential for further pay deeper down but not evaluated in this well.

2) Extensive reservoir with excellent permeability and porosity

3) Easy drilling conditions

4) Will return to appraise full extent of Loligo in next campaign

5) Rig to move to Scotia prospect

All IMO.

Good luck and welcome to the new Santos basin imo

:-)

The Upper Cretaceous was to be "poked" with this drill. This is why the target depth is where it is, to hit into the Upper Cretaceous.

The Upper Cretaceous is the dark green colour band in the pic below, below that is the light green band mid-Cretaceous - this has proven very high quality reservoir sands (from the Toroa well). (Noble has farmed into mid-Cretaceous plays apart from where they are excluded).



Toroa also had an excellent top seal and poor (non-existent) lateral seal. FOGL have nothing assigned in the Upper Cretaceous, so it is very important to get some data from there - which is why they were to poke into it at TD.


Going to CC's post on LSE - I am intrigued because the targets are known as T1, T1 Deep, Trigg, Trigg Deep and then finally at the bottom Three Bears.

Now, actually the whole Tertiary section is split into 3 - The upper section of Tertiary with T1 and T1 deep targets is called T1. The middle section with the Trigg targets is called T2. The lower section with Three Bears is called T3.

CC in his post referred to oil in T1 and T2 and all the way down to Three Bears - most people having a bear faced ramp would not have used that terminology. They would not have referred to the Triggs as T2. Which may OR MAY NOT (capitals, HIGH RISK), mean he does know something about the results.

We shall see in due course - nothing like sticking your neck out on the line and making a big call.

bankmanager (BM) made his call at the weekend - which led to the share price collapse on Monday - by triggering hair triggers of people scared out of their minds by Chariots news.

CC has now made his call, but only after a significant rise and a big volume upwards day.

If BM is wrong - he has caused mayhem on the markets by starting it all off, like throwing a match into a dry Forest and then saying its not your fault the entire Forest burnt down. If BM is correct then kudo's to him.

IF CC is wrong - at this stage I do not think he is ramping anyone into buying with his post - most people are in positions now ready for news. If he is right then kudo's to him.

I know jack about the result - could be good, could be bad - I am waiting, like everyone, for news.

IF IF IF any is found - is estimated to be in the range of 18API to 24API range. So just in case Loligo is oil - before the derampers start saying the oil is too heavy and all that crap - lets get the API and oil type out of the way - just in case there is some,.

The analogue would be the Marlim field offshore Brazil (Campos Basin) - which has been in production for a very long time. Marlim-South would perhaps be a good analogue, unconsolidated sandstone in the Tertiary.

Marlim South is operated by Petrobas -

Located 75 miles (120 kilometers) off the northern shore of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in water depths ranging from 2,500 to 6,300 feet (762 to 1,920 meters), is the Marlim Sul field. Situated in the Campos Basin area, roughly 80% of the field lies in water depths greater than 3,937 feet (1,200 meters). Petrobras, the operator, owns 100% interest of the field.

The Marlim Sul 4-RJS-382 well was discovered and drilled in 1987. Then an appraisal well, MLS 3B, was drilled by the Noble Leo Segerius drillship, which reached a total depth of 5,607 feet (1,709 meters). The drillship discovered 307 feet (94 meters) of net pay.

Marlim Sul consists of 14 reservoir blocks encompassing 148,263 acres (600 square kilometers). The main reservoir consists of Tertiary unconsolidated sandstone located in the Oligocene and Eocene formation, and contains heavy oil, API 17-24, with 32% porosity. The Marlim Sul field has estimated 1.47 Bboe of proven and 1.15 Bboe of probable reserves.

Petrobas use horizontal producers and horizontal injectors for Marlim South

Typical for the Campos Basin, the Marlim Sul reservoir is a Tertiary unconsolidated sandstone, particularly within the Oligocene and the Eocene ages, without strong water drive. It is a heavy oil reservoir (API 17-24), with 32% porosity, and 2000 mD permeability. Due to the need for high-rate injection to maintain reservoir pressure, and since high-rate producers are needed for economic development, Petrobras decided to develop Marlim Sul and several of the other fields in the Campos Basin with a series of horizontal producers and horizontal injectors.

Marlim Sul is a giant field located offshore Rio de Janeiro State, Campos Basin, Brazil. The field was discovered on December 1987 and it has been under development since 1994. It contains 1.47 billion BOE of proved reserves and additional 1.15 billion BOE of probable reserves. Laying in 2,625 to 8,530 feet (800 to 2600 meters) water depths, the field contains 14 reservoir blocks in a 600 square kilometers area.

Well, to continue further there is one thing you should talk about when you talk Upper Cretaceous.

That word is "Roncador".

Again - the analogue with the Falklands is the Campos Basin - and in the Campos basin they have found Tertiary reservoirs like the proposed Three Bears - but they also found......... a monster in the Upper Cretaceous..............

We know the drill bit was going to "poke" the Upper Cretaceous - what did the poke find ? Could Three Bears have been hiding other reservoirs lower down in the Upper Cretaceous - just like at Roncador ?


The Campos Basin has long been said to the analogue of the East Falklands, and there are plenty of examples of all.


...........
Campos Basin - Offshore Brazil - The Roncador field, discovered in October 1996 by the 1-RJS-436A wildcat, is in water depths ranging from 1500 to 2100 m. This giant field contains large volumes of hydrocarbons (9.2 billion bbl of oil in place and total reserves of 2.6 billion BOE) accumulated in Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) turbidite reservoirs. The discovery well found total net pay of 153 m of Maastrichtian reservoirs divided into five main zones, separated by interbedded shales. Only the uppermost reservoir zone shows a seismic amplitude anomaly that can be detected on seismic profiles. The other four reservoirs do not show acoustic impedance contrasts with the interbedded shales, and thus they have no amplitude anomalies..........



..........Campos Basin - Offshore Brazil - The Barracuda field was discovered in April 1989 by the 4-RJS-381 well in a water depth of 980 m. It covers an area of about 157 km 2 , in water depths ranging between 600 and 1200 m. It produces from Tertiary turbidite reservoirs. Seismic attribute analysis discriminates oil-saturated Paleocene, Eocene, and Oligocene sandstones encased in shale and marls, mainly in stratigraphic traps. This giant oil field contains in-place volumes of 2.7 billion bbl, and the total reserves achieved 659 million bbl (for Oligocene reservoirs) and 580 million bbl (for Eocene reservoirs)..............

.

wasn't there some rap song or similar a few years back entitled "Pump up the volume"? ....... can't imagine what brought that to mind!

Lets hope to see if Loligo turns out to be Campos Basin "2"...

odds remain heavily in favour of it being more like oklahoma in 30s

Heck of a lot of blues early on...

is no news good news?

it was for RKH...two years ago...

This is such an important drill that some news must filter through at some stage....

At least there is still some hope!! We'll all know within the next few days either way!!

So Pro if CC is right what price we looking at?

And if he's wrong what price we looking at? i.e what premium over cash for next drill?

The EIS stated 45 days of drilling operations (thats drilling and wireline).

3rd of August spud to 14th September is day 43.

So it is very close now to the EIS estimate.

Open hole logging will be complete now. They know if they have something that looks good, or nothing at all.

If there is something good we might get an initial wireline logging RNS and like RKH did after their initial RNS, they will give another update a week later once all the wireline/sidewall coring has been done.

By my estimate they will finish the total wireline ops late next week (around day 50) and then 2 weeks of PA will see the rig ready to move about day 62 of well operations (not far past the 60 day estimate in the spud RNS).

Then onward to Scotia.

But of course, if its a duster they will be moving on quicker than that to Scotia.