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About 27 to 30 days until BOR gets to TD on their first well. Success for BOR should really blow the price of FOGL upwards, reason being many people will be long BOR but short FOGL as a hedge.

If BOR comes in they will close their FOGL shorts.

If BOR fails then some of their BOR losses will be covered by gains on FOGL shorts.

Methinks FOGL could easily go up over 100% on BOR success, simply on shorts closing and of course new buyers as a hydrocarbon system would be proven in the South Falklands Basin.

I'm in both...more in FOGL than BOR....it's a risk.....but the upside could be enormous.....so tempting that I just had to be in these.....I will kick myself if FOGL don't find anything.....BOR is a big risk but they might derisk the following drilling if they encounter hydrocarbons of any sort...gas, oil (light or heavy)....even if on the first drill it is not commercial....the sp's should react with a big possibility of discovering something afterwards.....the so called shorts and longs to counterbalance things is good way to get shafted.....

Stretching its legs upwards today.

The way it could work out is like this : BOR hit the black stuff....in commercial quantities (miracle possibly), sp soars for both parties.....BOR hit oil or gas, but not in commercial quantities but proof of a working petroleum system....good also because of a big possibility of some elsewhere so the sp should rocket or quite a good increase still the same......BOR hit nothing at all....10p drop or so followed by at least a FOGL recovery whilst drilling the following well.......this is how I see it playing out in the next few months......that's my risk evaluation.....other views most welcome....

The everly bros, come to mind.,.

The way I see it.

BOR have a duster at Darwin, then BOR down 50% to 60% and FOGL down 25%.

BOR strike at Darwin then BOR up maybe 300% to 400% and FOGL up 100% to 150%.


If you like less risk but decent gains, given the low market cap of FOGL you hold FOGL :)

A bit too much like pure gambling in that case....I'm in...but it's just like Rockhopper before their strike...it was risky.....so is this it seems...

Just your kind of stock then rf ????;o)

Well...yes....I take far too many risks....sometimes they come incredibly right...sometimes like today with Aminex wrong.....overall.....not too bad.....

In this world Pro's guess is as good as anyone's. It's a calculated risk - good old capitalism, not gambling.

The fact remains that FOGL have far more acreage than BOR.....the people that have put up the main funds for this drilling campaign must be biting their fingernails !...

If you look at the Canaccord buy rating and target price of 250p - this is a little low IMO for a risked valuation.

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/falkland-oil-and-gas-2012-its-time-63024/


Loligo on its own is risked at over 1300p a share, so their 250p target represents 20% of an already risked valuation of just Loligo.

It only has a COS of 10% ,so dont let him fool you with his silly numbers,the blokes a clown.

But not a very funny one.

Probably going to try to stop (short term anyway) RKH from moving any further, to deter any farm in interest.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/07/cristina-fernandez-expected-to-make-major-announcement-on-falklands-and-oil

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Much ado about nothing, she did not even attempt to cancel the weekly flight from Chile.

The major announcement seems to be that she is not happy and very very frustrated and unable to do anything, therefore she is going to lump the problem on the UN (eg I am deflecting all Argentines to look to the UN who already are very clear on the Falklands and will do nothing) and then can walk away from this little hot pot and her ramping statements about getting them back which she used to get elected and stopped people looking at the terrible economic conditions in which they now live - and can now sit back and point at the UN being useless and not her as BOR and FOGL drill for oil and RKH try to farm out.

EG, looks like she has given up for now - and can you blame her. State of the art T45 destroyer there, nuclear submarine, planes and soldiers - no chance for invasion - US interest in Falklands assets, BOR and FOGL drilling, RKH farming out - everything moving ahead fast - does she want to be seen being the leader that let this all happen after telling her people she would get them back in 2012 ? or is she going to be super slippery now and deflect it all over to the UN by talking about their involvement............... I'll let you guess.

Have a follow : http://twitter.com/#!/falklands_utd

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Looks like the start of the hot money into BOR now. Could easily see BOR go up to 100p pre-results now.

Interesting times ahead, BOR strike then FOGL will fly with BOR, but if BOR fail I think the downside on FOGL will be quite limited, due to shorts closing providing some buying support.

Directors moving their shares into SIPP by selling and then buying the same amount.

Cannot blame them, they are protecting potential massive gains from the taxman.

They also have around 3 million options between them that they can take at very low prices should the share price zooooom upwards on good news.

People think I am joking when I say the top hundred FOGL prospects have over 60 billion RECOVERABLE barrels potential.

They will learn soon enough that actually its no joke.........

500 billion with a 30% recovery rate gives 150 billion recoverable barrels, so its no surprise for FOGL, which has the largest and what could be the most prospective license area's, to have in their top hundred prospects the potential for over 60 billion recoverable barrels.

4.7 billion of which are up for grabs with the first well of theirs, Loligo, spudding June should be, perhaps late May even.



http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0210/1224311575834.html


..........Once the anniversaries are over, the Falklanders publicly declare their hope that tensions will decrease and they can return to normal worries, such as the fact that Stanley’s primary school is no longer big enough.

In truth, however, the waters off the Falklands hold the key. Four exploration wells are currently being drilled, amid talk that there are 500 billion barrels “out there”............


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