.

Pro must be wanting the price to go lower so he can buy back in.

So they have halved their target, you couldn`t make it up

Evolution Securities

XCITE ENERGY (XEL) - BUY - PRICE/TARGET : 192P/322P

FILING OF MATERIAL CHANGE REPORT
Company focussed on shifting Resources in to Reserves

EVO TAKE The most interesting aspect of the Material Change Report issued today by Xcite is the fact that the company intends to submit a field development plan for BOTH the First Stage Production AND Second Stage Production. This will allow the 87mmbbls of contingent resources to be classified as Reserves, taking the total 2P count to 115mmbbls. On this basis, Xcite would certainly look cheap, trading on a current EV/2P of $4.4/bbl versus a $11.8/bbl valuation in the Reserves Assessment Report and $10/bbl for typical North Sea transactions.

DETAILS The Material Change Report provides some of the detail behind the numbers issued in last weeks Reserves Assessment Report and is a requirement under Xcites Toronto Stock Exchange listing. We will look at the costing assumptions in the Reserves Assessment and fine tune our model where necessary but we do not expect to make material changes.

VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION The shares have fallen over 40% since the Reserves Assessment last week which, although below our expectations, do mark an important stage in the monetization of the Bentley asset. We think the fall is overdone and remain Buyers.

Company focussed on shifting Resources in to Reserves (David Farrell) David Farrell
+44 (0)20 7071 4447 david.farrell@evosecurities.com

Someone been sacked,lets hope its for the better.

interesting chatter circling xel.... what was effectively a reserve update conf yesterday to 87m contingent reserves to total 115m is now considered cheap by the city - apparently - expect some blue here today - we shall see

other good news as mm states - rubbish has been fired - agm etc

excellent!

New advisors - says one thing.

Placing/Fund Raising on the way............. lets see if the rumours of 200p were correct when it happens a few weeks down the line.

The new advisors will be looking closely at the bod now,

watch this space

it doesn't matter about what (shale) oil canada does or doesn't have ..... XEL's stuff, now of debatable quantity, is in the north sea lest you had not noticed! ..... anyway, the AGM clearly excited (sorry about the pun) no one, nor scared them either

Well oddly enough I DO know where the North Sea is---so?

oh and show me a car running on their oil.

People get so carried away with BS from these people, suddenly every one holding a handful of dubious oily shares is an expert petrologist ( study of rocks dearie)

I think another F*ck off coming......;))

I expect nothing less.

Mr S ..... there is no question that heavy oil is much more difficult to extract and to refine, but there are many more uses for crude than running your aston martin ... i concur that XEL's latest report was pretty uninspiring, but nevertheless they do seem to have a commercial field, even if not quite to the extravagant claims previously predicted

btw, i am no "expert petrologist" and have never pretended to be, but through my biz, i do have at least some minimal knowledge .... and your "claim to fame" is what exactly?

oh dear......another "Top analyst" coming.,.

lol

now now boys an gals.
anyway wheres my dictionary, a couple of words i need to look up.and no Bb not one of yours-;)
and why does S have to have a claim to fame?
just wondering and just my view and opinion as always.
regards to you all.
jkd

Notes from AGM

- Bentley East was not part of the 2009 cpr
- it is not part of the core as it has not yet been drilled - will be appraised in FSP by a sidetrack, it is a pinch out in the field.
- oil has spilled into the core from Bentley east & south into the core from se to nw. If pressure connectivity can be established in this appraisal then it will be added to the core area
-Also believed that there is a channel connecting to Bressay to the nw
- the fsp area is defined only by what will be drained by the no of wells in the fsp
- D West is the asset manager doing the DECC application
- only thing stopping all P becoming reserves is the DECC approval
- subtle differences between staged and phased ??
- where's the 200mmboe? It is still there on the upside of the areas which are not currently 1P or 2P but must be more careful in the terminology used now??

DECC approval
- 2 stage plan has been put forward to DECC - 2 stages because XEL will learn from stage 1 fsp
- fpso discussions underway and DECC APPROVAL is expected by the summer
- 200mmBoe is being used internally by management for sizing

Funding
- they know how much bank debt (mezz or project finance) is available
- split of equity & debt is being discussed and expects to be settled in the next 4-8 weeks ie there is likely to be some kind of modest placing

IP
- there is $100m invested in how to do what XEL has done
- there are directly comparable fields in the north sea so this is worth a lot
- further approaches for data sharing have been received
- no well data sharing has been agreed with Statoil for the 6z well

No clear answer to what management will do differently to avoid the communications disaster happening again - disappointing answer on this.
- RS is very keen to emphasise the asset value is now fully derisked at $1.35m
- "there is a gap between asset value and SP and the market will figure this out" - this seems to be the comms strategy

cost per barrel is significantly more fsp than 2009 cpr and more than ssp

slippage on first oil to Q1/Q2 2012 dependent on whether wells are batch drilled or drilled and brought into production simoultaneously.

- significant interest in the contractor community to be involved in incentive based participation in the Bentley alliance

Totally de-risked with an asset worth $1,350,000,000 / 163.2million = $8.27/5.11

My view, were the board of directors to big to ask for help. Now look at the cost. I would have thought top advisors would have gone over the report before it being made public. It was just to important to not word or get it over to the investors, in a understanding way.

m
are they your notes?
if not maybe you would like to confirm who's and when, as you give no details or references whatsoever.
many thanks
jkd