">
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381032
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381151
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/final-results/201310250700053729R/

Powered by IST's


VOG is presently drilling Well 104 in its West Medvezhye field,and expected to reach depth in 4 weeks from spud date of 30th June, that makes 27th July(this week).
Results of testing will be sometime mid/late August, with a positive outcome
it could be HUGH.
With estimates of 134BILLION cubic metres of GAS and 201 Million barrels of Gas
Condensate,it will be a Company Maker. The field is in the area of the largest gas field in the WORLD.
Other assets include Kemerkol in Kazakhstan, with C1 reserves of 8.7MBO
and C2 reserves of7.8MBO. Another acquistion is Tamdykol with potental
reserves of 34MBO, it also has interest in 2 blocks in the North Sea.
You can check it out on www.uk-wire.com, and its own site of www.victoriaoilandgas.com.
It has excellent management team led by Kevin Foo, who hopes to turn it into
a Mid Cap Company(�500m+) in the not to distant future.
As i stated earlier in the post, Drilling is almost complete so it won't be long to Lift Off?
Well, Well worth checking out.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111040700164867R

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111290700139263S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112200700132888U
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207090700051587H
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/rsm-default/201401130700074445X/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/interim-results/201402280701321590B/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=VOG&tab=announcements

Here's my attempt at a valuation should the various fields prove up and we get to production:

West Med Gas: 0.5-2.3 tcf roughly equals to 14-64bn cubic metres. If they get the same net back as Novatek at RUR660 per 1,000 cubic meters, that's about $22.9 per 1,000 cubic metres. Take off say $3 for production costs, and factor down to a 75% holding gives: $210-$960m of market cap. Equivalent to 147-672p per share (Assuming $1.7: and RUR28.8:$1 and 84m shares in issue). This valuation may increase if the Russian gas market liberalises.

West Med Condensate. From the RNS of 18th March, potential condensate is say 100-200m barrels. If we value that at a conservative $1 in the ground, gives say 53-105p per share. As these are proven up, and start producing the value per barrel is likely to increase.

Kemerkol. 60m boe potential recoverable. Again be conservative and value this at say $1.50 in the ground to $5 per bbl in production as it hasn't flowed for VOG yet. This gives say 63p-210p per share.

Tamdykol. Potential 34m barrels. 90% owned. Again say $1.50 in the ground to $5 in production gives 32-105p per share. Probably mark this down a bit now after the first well being a duster. But NEK asking to expand the programme to 10 wells (especially if that is at their cost like the previous 4-well contract) is a positive angle.

Note also that the original estimate for recoverable reserves in West Med was 4.8tcf. The deeper levels of the field have yet to be drilled so there is potentially another 2.5 tcf of gas at these deeper levels not included yet in the valuation.

I guess this gives low-high valuation estimates at: 295-1092p per share.



Research links:

http://eng.gazpromquestions.ru/page14.shtml

http://www.novatek.ru/netcat_files/80_52.pdf (Page 4)

And here is a deconstruction of the Daily Mail article:

THE phrase 'not for widows and orphans' could have been coined for companies like Victoria Oil & Gas. True - its a high risk stock on a high risk market. Nothing new


The Aim-listed explorer has told the City a story that has a seductive chance of success, but at this stage in its development there is also a real chance of failureI think that 500bn cu ft of gas and up to 200m barrels of condensate have more chance of success than failure. . Indeed, the shares yesterday fell 6p to 93p on nervous selling fuelled by gossip that colourful chairman Kevin Foo's plan to find 'rescue' financing has hit big trouble It is unlikely that a re-financing ever goes smoothly, and it may have hit a hiccup. If there was serious trouble, the existing institutions would be bailing out, and there is no sign of that. Nothing has changed about the fundamentals.
.


Apparently, Victoria will run out of cash in about eight weeks VOG had $11m at the last report. No doubt a good deal has been spent on West Med and on Kemerkol. A further fund raising to prove up and/or develop the fields was always on the cards, so the fact we need extra funding is hardly a surprise. and is desperate to continue its exploration activities in Russia If I was sat on 500bn cu ft (or up to 2.3trn cu ft at these levels, and may be up to 4.5 trn cu ft if one includes the as yet unexplored deeper levels) of gas I would also be desperate to continue to explore the field and develop it, so whats the problem here? Note that these numbers are not made up, they come from a respectable independent source of DeGoyler & MacNaughton. . But institutions have so far given Foo, who has been around the block with companies like Aberfoyle Holdings and Bakyrchik Gold, the bargepole treatment. Is there evidence to support this claim?



Recent speculation has suggested that Foo wanted to raise up to 10m by offering investors shares at 100p. The speculation on the ADVFN board was around 7m, but who knows for sure?



'No chance,' said an informed source last night. 'Not at this level. There is no guarantee whatsoever that its well in Siberia will provide commercial quantities of gas.' The only things guaranteed in life are death and taxes. But VOGs field sits right next to one of the largest gas fields on the planet, so IMHO this makes it quite likely that the gas will flow.



The source went on to say: 'Even if the gas discovery is proved successful, who exactly is Victoria going to sell the gas to? Well, there is a large company in Russia with a big pipeline to the West. It is called Gazprom, and the pipeline is apparently only a few km away from the West Med field. There are also other companies using this type of arrangement (e.g. Novatek, and another Nelson Resources, was just taken over, doing the same thing). Notably, the gas condensate if it proves up will not have to be sold down the pipeline, and could be sold direct for export without the involvement of Gazprom.
Why take a chance in what has often proved to be a dangerous 'jam tomorrow' sector'? Because its there, because if you dont take risks, you dont get rewards. Because we are at the early stages of the commodity cycle, because we are nearing the Hubbert Peak of Oil production and because demand for Oil and Gas is rising faster than supply can keep up. In this environment, the potential rewards could be outstanding.



Victoria's shares more than trebled to a peak of 128p last month when it claimed it had made a large potential gas discovery in western Siberia Again, not just claimed, but demonstrated by independent estimates from DeGoyler & MacNaughton.
Victoria paid just 6.4m for its three-quarter share in the Russian field. What good value that deal is showing to be

kiwi
you mailed george, any chance letting us know what he said, also good stuff on the advfn bb ,but to many d heads there so it gets lost easy, thx for bringing it here.

by the way where in nz u from

Doesn't matter who the shareholders are if no new finance in 6 weeks its busted flush for this outfit.

tsmith,

Got a reply from George and from Kevin Foo. They are taking the issues seriously and congratulated me on my detective work and the support of the company.

I think they believe there to be some 'dark forces' at work tryingto talk down the stock so they can get in more cheaply on the placing. They are asking the AIM authorities to investigate.

Not from NZ, my brother moved there, so I picked Kiwi as a handle, with the 7 signifying my Caterham as it happens.

Fruitcake,

I think if the existing holders were serioulsy worried they would bail out. No sign of that. They have deep enough pockets to stump up the cash if needs be to fund the proving up of the fields. Its not in their interests to start funding the company and then see their investment go up in smoke just as its on the brink of success is it?

been here before with jkx sbe just been down 35% with sbe now its come back now down 35% on Vog not a nice feeling but i haVe had around 2k return on tradeing Vog if i kept all my oils from three year ago would be a millionaire here alist of the ones that got away took profits on bur sbe mrs cairn oil jkx dgo hnr bp shell there lot more had 16 but they haVe all gone up like a oil fired rocket except ramco pre but that was just my bad timing the institution know where the big money is to be made there trying to knock them down to as low placeing price could be 78-84 dont bet what you cant loose some are up some are down some haVe stayed the same why would anyone want to post just to put frightners on other holders thats not nice.

That must be the longest sentence of the year.

Well done Cellby.

thanks hope it flowed for you.

it flowed as well as the oil

Dil + Babycakes ect: ADVFN down for maintence so expect a lot of de rampers over here.

thx for that kiwi, keep up the good work, and glad you post here can get to read it easy with having to go though the crap on adv bb.
tonys

Kiwi7,
Excellent deconstruction of the Daily Mail article, well done!

Amities / l have always believed a share should be suspended during a fund raising exercise as it allows what is, in effect naked shorting. Ex Yukos highfler Vice President , Bill Kelleher, runs the show here. The man has spent 25 years in the employ of almost " a Whos who " of oil companies with 15 years concentrating on the Russias . Foo is in the genre of Teeling with his hand in many pies ( and decent companies ). Asking around those who knew Kelleher he is a smart operator . Believed to have been offered employment by a number of Russian oil companies he was quoted in the FT as saying he wanted to be given the opertunity to run his own show. .... Regarding the contraversial revision of c1/2/3 deposits in the West Medvezhye . l cant see where the problem lies as the abundance of drilling information taken on the second attempt was not originally available when the first estimates were undertaken . Due to this fact it it clearly states in the appendix ( note 1 ) of the last AGM that "An internal technical review is expected to refine these estimates as part of the 2005 SIG development plan " and which "D and M" strongly backed as they themselves believed they had acted a tad conservatively in the light of a number of companies being prosecuted in their exaggerating reserves . Revisions are commonplace . Common practice . SIG is Sever'gas from whom Vog bought 76% of the west Medvezhye acreage; a consideration satisfied by $8m in cash, and a furthur consideration of 4,759,314 shares . Thus not forgetting SIG have a substantial 25 % wrapped up in this VOG deal ( $3.4m mil - so a j/v by any other name.) and know support for VOG exists from a number of hefty institutions. What with revenues from oil and esp gas companies doubling and tripling during the past 12 months it is obvious after a session of number crunching with thier nomad, financial advisers and analyists that SIG assessed it would be pure folly for them to accept monies as opposed to shares whose potential is known to most in the industry to be collasal ..........................But lets face it . SIG would be highly UNLIKELY to accept over 4.5 mn in shares in a company they believe to be without merit or decent returns . They have proven C1 reserves at Kemerol of 8.7 barrels with c2 of 25 and c3 of 60. .The double entry well scheduled for spudding in January is a mere 9oo feet to deposit as opposed to the 22,000 feet BP drill in the Atlantic off west Africa.VOG have said e will capture the shut in oil @ 475 blls pd initially raising it to 2000 blls p/d in summer . . The botch up reg RNS hardly affects the drilling or prospects of VOG . Perhaps tilttillating for the Financial press. But nothing more . . Nothing more than a storm in a teacup wich will soon be forgotten . But in the meantime a great army of folk will have been frightened "out" of the market. For Vog are lucky in that there exist a number of city connections from which to raise capital - as most in the industry know that in all probability its aworld class resource find . . ...This nonsense of VOL being a victim of cashburn is a bear trap . lt smacks of desperation ..- a set of medium sized fields with 5 to 8 wellheads wont have have a cashburn of $40,000 a day but a single wellhead -NEVER !!! ...and typical of the mails man whose reckies are at best crap . SIG know VOGS prospects , books and staff beter than anyone . Thus illustating the revision was planned as early as the AGM . Skipping through my "Alexanders gas and oil connections " { not exactly my usual reading matter at 3,500 stg per copy . But maps showing Vogs EXACT acreage in the finest of detail it appears more like a simple bolt onto Gazpoms " Urengoy" field with both the, "Yamal" furthur to the north and and Gydan fields to the immediate north east. . . Furthur North is the Kara sea ( estimated to produce 300 trillion cubic meteres of gas . Exploration here has already revealed 12 basins of gas -of which the biggest at Rusanovskoye and Leningradskoye are estimated to contain between 5-6 trillion cmg To the east lies the vast Vankor gas fields in the Turukstan region of the Krasnoyarsk whose C1 { YES - C1 ! } reserves total an unbelievable bpoe of 41 million TONNES ! {7,375 barrels of condesate equals a single tonne ! }and C1 reserves of 28.2 trillion cmg. {And that ws based upon revision of original estimates as more and more drilling data became available to be collated . Within 150km of the biggest Gazpom owned fields at Shtokmanovskoye , Piltun Astasakoye, Lunskoye and Priazlomnoye lies Vogs acreage . And finally to the immediate south lies nine "new" fields which have made neccassay the construction of a huge gas and oil complex at the rail terminal at Surgut. lncidentally the railway and river systems are absolutely ideal to VOG - whether by sea , by rail , or via pipeline which conviently would only need a small rail spur,or link up piping and thearby gain access to the more lucrative markets of France and Germany and the UK The odds you are burning Russian gas to heat your home is highly probable. . ........ So are The odds of having a plethora of over 80 producing wells to the North , South , East, and West all within 20 to 150 KM proximity and FOR Vog to come away empty handed would be something of a phenomena. Snatching defeat from the mouth of victory ?? ..Could all the analyists at "D and M" and all the other independant assayers all be wrong ? ....For 30 years Russians knew of this oil.From the the murmansk, the kara sea ,the Lapter sea right through to the Barents sea .the whole russian shelf is a bed of oil ; but they lacked not only both the capital and technology to get it out but it was against an envoronment of oil at a few dollars a bl and that was refinery price ( Presently they pay 41,29 c ) Yet one would think looking at many BBs that Vog was going broke . Utter tosh ....of the worst kind . .......

FC, great post, thank you. A long termer and not the slightest bit worried.

Up 10% this morning but I've found no new information since yesterday. Anyone know the reason? Is news expected today?

Has a placing price been decided upon and info leaked??

Just more ramping and on alternate days deramping... Wait for concrete news and dont try to catch this falling knife...Been in a lot of dodgy shares over last 2 decades and can spot when the news flow too enticing and not too much to back it up. If really worth pounds a share there will be plenty time to hop on board... Dont be too greedy and bide your time for now

Seems to me that the placing price is going to be 90 to 100, and thats why certain people want to see this share down to 70 to 80, Don't forget E K is long at 107p so they say.

ianwas - sound advice - thanks