http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20050126070000PE650.html

Gold rises as the dollar and U.S. bond yields decline Source : By : Clara Denina Thu, Dec 29, 2016 17:31 hrs

LONDON - Gold prices rose to their highest in two weeks on Thursday as the dollar and U.S. bond yields declined following weaker than expected economic data. Spot gold hit $1,150.26 an ounce, its highest since Dec. 14., and was up 0.4 percent at $1,146.16 by 1122 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose $6.30 to $1,147.10 an ounce.
"Gold is not out of the woods yet but yields are a bit lower and the dollar is weaker, especially against the yen and yen-gold has showed a phenomenal correlation since the U.S. election," SaxoBank head of commodity research Ole Hansen said. Gold fell more than 8 percent in November as U.S. Treasury yields rose after Donald Trump's election led to speculation his commitment to infrastructure spending would spur growth.
The precious metal then hit a 10-month low on Dec. 15 as solid U.S. economic data gave the U.S. Federal Reserve the confidence to raise interest rates for the first time in a year. The central bank also signalled that it expected three more increases next year, up from a previous projection of two. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

However, gold prices are still 8 percent higher than they were at the start of the year and were heading for the first annual increase after three years of declines. "We are battling a bit here with the $1,150 level and if we make it above that we shall open up towards $1,165 but in order for funds to start getting worried about covering shorts, we probably need to rise above the mid $1,170s," SaxoBank's Hansen said. The dollar fell 0.6 percent against a basket of six main currencies, mostly due to the yen's strength, while the benchmark 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield slipped to two-week lows. "Heading into next week ... the Italian bank rescue and the direction of the Chinese yuan will likely dictate near-term pricing in gold, especially if equity markets start to get nervous about either of these two developments," INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said in a note. Gold is usually seen as a refuge from riskier assets such as equities.

China's net gold imports in November via its main conduit Hong Kong dropped 17.8 percent from October to the lowest in 10 months, data showed on Thursday. Among other precious metals, silver rose for a third straight session, up 0.8 percent at $16.10 an ounce. Platinum was 0.1 percent higher at $903.20, while palladium climbed 0.9 percent to $671.20 an ounce.

Another steady rise I cannot say the sane for the peers CEY and HOC
------------

Happy New Year

Thank you for what you taught me.
Please keep teaching my hungry mind even in 2017!

Why It’d Be Dumb to Sell Gold on the Account of a Rising Dollar - Posted on December 27, 2016 by Amith Nirgunarthy

gold and usd

As it becomes increasingly likely that the US Federal reserve will raise rates as early as December (and yes, you might be reading this after the December meeting, but it still applies), gold is under pressure. The market logic is that, with a rate increase indicating that the US economy is getting stronger, the US dollar, in turn, grows stronger relative to other major currencies.

Since investors perceive the US economy as both stable and strong, they usually have their wealth stored in dollars, hence, the reason why the dollars is a reserve currency. However, once there’s panic around the US economy, which invariably threatens the value of the dollar, investors would understandably start looking for ways to secure their wealth, which would involve storing their wealth in anything other than the US dollar. Here’s where gold comes in to play, since it’s viewed as a preserver of wealth.

Since the laws of demand and supply must play out, at any sounds of a crack in the US economy, the demand for gold starts to trend north, and hence, the price of gold. Flipping the coin, once the US economy starts emitting positive vibes, the US dollar becomes a more attractive preserver of wealth and hence, diminishing the demand for gold.

However, this is only an explanation as to why the US dollar and gold are inversely correlated. And this is what governs the decision of most gold investors. However, that’s not the entire story. Here’re a couple of additional facts you should know.

Gold Should Be Treated Like an Investment Not a Speculative Instrument

It’s true that gold doesn’t perform remarkably when the US economy is strong, or at least seems strong. So when you look at the performance of gold in patches, it looks very volatile. However, over a longer timeframe gold performs excellently. For instance, even though gold has seen an all-time high over the past decade and has since dropped by over $660 from the all-time high to the current $1170 region it is, it has outperformed the S&P 500.

Gold vs SPY

Source: Ycharts

It’s noteworthy that the S&P 500 has been trending north consistently since 2011, reaching an all-time high earlier in 2016. Since the turn of the millennium, gold has returned over 304% vs. S&P 500’s 55.27% return over the same period.

It’s easy to say, but the global financial crisis happened during the time. So yes, that should be expected. That’s correct. However, during the period of economic expansion between 2000 and 2007, gold outperformed the S&P 500 – 168.9% and 1.78% returns respectively.

If we went deeper to see the performance of gold in patches during that period, you’d find that it responded to the US economy most of the time. Yet, it’s outperformed the most important equities to the US economy.

One thing that you won’t be told is that gold, like any other tradable asset class will, won’t react in a uniform manner to reports on the strength of the US economy. Sometimes, it’d respond minimally. At other times, the reaction will be high. That’s because there are other factors involved, of whose combined force will also matter (more on this below). So you may only be able to see the real picture over the long-term, as we’ve just seen.

So yes, gold might not be on the up once the Fed raises benchmark rates. However, it doesn’t make much sense to sell off the golden portion of your portfolio on account of a rate hike.

Global Uncertainties Still Lurk

As stated above, other factors affect the price of gold other than the strength of the US economy. One of them is the strength and decisions of economies elsewhere. For instance, the Japanese government said it’s seeing economic weakness around the globe in a November study. Investors around the globe will want to preserve their wealth as well. And gold is definitely an option.

This will influence the demand and supply dynamics of gold, as it will invariably work against the strong US economic force in regards to gold pricing. In fact, this makes it even less smart to sell gold right now. If I were trading either on a binary options trading platform or any other type of trading, I’d actually find it difficult betting against gold right now.

Second day of rising in SA but not here

SA quote... 262 ZAR +4 SA quote - jse

POG rising nicely over the last few days, a particularly strong rise today..

Took another position just below 15.50p late on the day, as the GOLD price was spiking up.
Despite the rise it was small considering the rise of the others and gold price

15.675p +0.25p

so far so good this morning though I was expecting just a bit more rise of a rise, after the POG movement late yesterday.

Yet is a bit early, and not much is going on on the trading front, but at least the order book is much stronger on the bid side DEPTH 26 v 17

"[The] High Court of South Africa exposes the Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) as an irrational institution with a high degree of incompetence that obstructs the mining investment it is meant to facilitate, lacks energy in resolving issues, allows appeal processes to drag on for years and establishes a case for its own substitution."

You'd be forgiven if you thought this story was about the EMRA

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/court-exposes-dmr-as-incompetent-irrational-investment-obstructor-2017-01-11

A very strong order book after the normal UT at 12:02 with all the trades at 16p taken with "AT"s but strait away another 25K was added from the iceberg.

spread 15.75 v 16p with 110K v 75K at price
order book DEPTH 42 v 13

a $14.2 rise on the gold price now to $1205.5 that is close to the best of the day after some profit taking after lunch

A large buy trade earlier on has make a big difference at the order book as there is not many shares left at the offer side till 17p

13:08:27
16.00p
588,370

OFFER GONE TO 16.50p and they have added a few trades but not much volume 41K, the 16.75p trades are gone withdrawn so next price is 17p

16.50p +0.75p

Are we getting the much expected rise on the share price?

so far a bit more than the usual 0.25p rise, as "AT"s at 16.75p are being taken already after being added 1 minutes before

only 7K left at 16.75p offer

SA quote - jse

https://finance.google.com/finance?q=JSE:PAN

TRADING STATEMENT AND OPERATIONAL UPDATE FOR THE SIX MONTHS REPORTING PERIOD ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2016

TRADING STATEMENT

For the reporting period ended 31 December 2015 (prior reporting period), the average ZAR:GBP exchange rate was ZAR20.83:1. For the current reporting period, the ZAR appreciated against the GBP, with an average exchange rate of ZAR17.88:1. This 14.2 percent period-on-period appreciation in the average exchange rate should be taken into account for the purposes of comparing results with the prior reporting period.

Pan African advises shareholders that its EPS and HEPS for the current reporting period are expected to be between:

EPS in ZAR terms: 23 percent to 43 percent higher than the 12.43 cents EPS for the prior reporting period (therefore estimated EPS of 15.34 cents to 17.82 cents).

HEPS in ZAR terms: 21 percent to 41 percent higher than the 12.43 cents HEPS for the prior reporting period (therefore estimated HEPS of 15.08 cents to 17.56 cents).

Using the average ZAR:GBP 17.88:1 exchange rate that prevailed during the current reporting period, the Groups EPS and HEPS in GBP terms for the current reporting period are expected to be between:

EPS in GBP terms: 45 percent to 65 percent higher than the 0.60 pence EPS for the prior reporting period (therefore estimated EPS of 0.87 pence to 0.99 pence).

HEPS in GBP terms: 42 percent to 62 percent higher than the 0.60 pence HEPS for the prior reporting period (therefore estimated HEPS of 0.85 pence to 0.97 pence).

StockMarketWire.com
Pan African Resources has reported a fatality at the Evander 7 shaft complex on Feb. 15, and lowered its FY gold output guidance as it provided further details on the Evander shafts' refurbishment programmes.

The refurbishment cost of about R40m would be funded from Pan African's existing banking facilities. The nature of these refurbishments required a suspension of Evander's underground mining operations for a period of up to 55 days, during which critical infrastructure issues would be addressed.

In light of these recent developments, Pan African said it had revised its gold production guidance for the financial year ending 30 June 2017 from 195,000 ounces to about 181,000 ounces.

"Evander's tailings and surface operations would be unaffected by the underground mining suspension," the company said.

BACKGROUND
In conjunction with the 7A shaft refurbishment programme, Evander's management initiated a number of independent and internal engineering studies to assess the condition of Evander's underground mining infrastructure (both Evander 7 and 8 shafts), the company said.

"These studies identified critical infrastructure issues requiring remedial action, to ensure safe and sustainable operation of these shafts."

Referring again to the fatality, Pan African said that an engineering assistant sustained a fatal head injury when a section of the main shaft pump column failed as he worked in the shaft bottom area.

Interim Results for the 6 months ended 31 Dec 2016

PRN

Pan African Resources PLC

('Pan African Resources' or the 'company' or the 'group')

(Incorporated and registered on 25 February 2000 in England and Wales under the Companies Act 1985, registration number 3937466)

Share code on AIM : PAF
Share code on JSE : PAN
ISIN : GB0004300496
Interim unaudited results for the six months ended 31 December 2016

Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources commented:

Pan African Resources generated higher earnings, revenues and a record dividend pay-out of R300 million (GBP17.1 million), despite lower production from our gold operations. The Elikhulu Tailings Retreatment Project (Elikhulu), which was approved by the Pan African Resources Board during the period under review, will provide organic production growth of approximately 56,000oz of gold per annum, and also reduce the overall cost profile of our operations. Elikhulu reflects Pan African Resources strategy of delivering long-life, low cost quality production ounces, with the focus of generating attractive returns for our shareholders.

Transactions completed in the prior financial year have positively impacted results in the current reporting period and have been extremely value accretive. The PAR Gold Proprietary Limited (PAR Gold) acquisition enhanced earnings per share by 17.7%. Uitkomst Colliery contributed R21.3 million, or 8.5%, towards the groups profit after taxation.

Our immediate focus is to recommence the Evander Mines underground mining operations, following the temporary suspension of mining to refurbish critical infrastructure, and to finalise the Elikhulu funding package.

Key features reported in South African Rand (ZAR or R) and Pound Sterling (GBP)

Financial key features

The groups profit after taxation in ZAR terms increased by 9.8% to R249.8 million (2015: R227.6 million), while in GBP terms, the groups profit after taxation increased by 28.4% to GBP14.0 million (2015: GBP10.9 million).
Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 33.4% to 16.58 cents per share (2015: 12.43 cents per share), while in GBP terms, EPS increased by 55.0% to 0.93 pence per share (2015: 0.60 pence per share).
Group revenue increased by 19.2% to R1,878.2 million (2015: R1,575.4 million) and, in GBP terms, group revenue increased by 38.9% to GBP105.0 million (2015: GBP75.6 million). This increase was due to an increase in the ZAR gold price received and the inclusion of Uitkomst Collierys revenue of R225 million (GBP12.6 million), in the current period (2015: Nil).
The group paid a final dividend of R300 million or GBP17.1 million (2015: R210 million or GBP9.7 million) on 22 December 2016, relating to the 2016 financial year. This dividend equated to R0.1544 per share or 0.88 pence per share (2015: R0.1147 per share or 0.53 pence per share).
The Pan African board of directors (the board) approved the Elikhulu project, subject to certainty on the funding of the project.
The Uitkomst Colliery performed well and contributed R21.3 million (2015: Nil), or 8.5%, to the groups profit after taxation.
The PAR Gold transaction (previously named the Shanduka Gold transaction) contributed an additional 17.7% to the groups EPS.
Operational key features

Group gold production decreased by 10.0% to 91,613oz (2015: 101,797oz).
Effective rand gold price received increased by 16.5% to R565,298/kg (2015: R485,215/kg) and, in USD terms, it increased by 13.2% to USD1,257/oz (2015:USD1,110/oz).
Due to the lower gold production, all-in sustaining cost per kilogramme increased in ZAR terms to R456,187/kg (2015: R396,819/kg) and, in USD terms, all-in sustaining cost per ounce increased to USD1,014/oz (2015:USD908/oz).
Uitkomst Colliery produced and sold 127,605 tonnes of coal from the underground mining operations and 199,597 tonnes of coal acquired from third parties for blending and processing.
Phoenix Platinum Mining Proprietary Limited (Phoenix Platinum) increased platinum group elements (PGE) production by 1.8% to 4,574oz (2015: 4,493oz).
Group gold resources remained similar relative to the prior financial year ending 30 June 2016 at 34.9Moz (30 June 2015: 31.9Moz).
The group is pleased to report no fatalities in the reporting period (2015: no fatalities) and an improved overall group safety performance.

Peel Hunt today downgrades its investment rating on Pan African Resources PLC (LON:PAF) to add (from buy) and raised its price target to 19p (from 18p)

Holding well into a new high lately 16p bid

strange trade earlier on of 1 share, most people thing is a sign of a RNS on the way, many times is true, lets wait and see

08:18:52
16.00p
1

I wonder if they paid the usual broker commission ?

time to start buying the stock?

Has been bouncing from this support price 13.125p ( 13 v 13.25p) on the past
A very strong order book as it reaches this point
Gold is holding after the lately rise
Production problems are behind
Mining charter suspended

Current order book on the bid/ offer price is 453k v 76k

DEPTH
45 v 22