.

So a rumour of 30 meters net pay is spreading around.

Could be just a desperate ramp, could be something in it, who knows ?

But it would be interesting indeed if they hit 30 meters net pay of oil at the bottom.

Firstly, it would validate why the upper 4 targets are dry, if they are ?, as a good seal down below would have starved the upper targets of any charge.

Secondly, this is a compromise well - all targets are being drilled in "sub-optimal" location. Unlike BOR at Darwin and Stebbing who were going for best location, FOGL have gone here not for best location for best net pay, they have drilled purely to try to go through all 5 targets with a single well. That means they are not being drilled in their optimal location, they are being drilled trying to get the drill to go through all 5.

If they could get 30 meters net pay on a sub-optimal well location, imagine how thick the net pay might be on an optimally placed appraisal well once 3D is done.

Now, its just another of those rumours, could be total BS, probably is, might not be - but if it were true and they have 30 meters at the bottom in a sub-optimal well location - that would be fantastic.

this wondrous rumour was obviously not in the market before close of biz yesterday, or if it was, it was clearly dismissed out of hand

Correct cynic, it come out last night.

Along with another rumour that the "flow test equipment" has been taken out of storage late yesterday and sent down for loading - but going where ??

All good fun, could be pure BS, could be true - we will know only when the company releases an RNS.

This was the "other" rumour on LSE.

http://www.lse.co.uk/member-info.asp?page=1&nick=oily


FOGL

FOGL first leak Thu 21:53

Forget Goldilocks it looks like Goliath has found the 3 bears

They have moved the flow kit which is yellow from storage up in Stanley down to the docks waiting on for boat.

Will post when i know boat

if anyone wants to play in this game at this stage whether short or long, they should only do so with the greatest caution and with guaranteed stops

The Toisa Sonata support ship shot off from rig location to Stanley Port, leaving the rig area at 14:00 hours UK time on Tuesday 11th. Its AIS is off presently. That time would coincide with TD time from Mondays RNS.

Anyone able to pop down to the port to see whats being loaded on to the Toisa Sonata ??

Interesting.... if they have moved flow equipment !...or in the words of an "allo-allo" actor...how verry in-teres-ting....

Gsa flow testing kit or oil flow testing kit...?...or are both the same kit with a different nozzle on the end...?....

i hope to see sp at close to 80p ..... shall then act accordingly

fill your boots or sell at profit cynic?

To be zin or not to be zin...zat is ze quesztion......

looks like that big spread has gone so we might see things warm up now,should be an intresting day.

Well, it's not having much effect this rumour.....way below average trades...

first let's see sp at the level i favour and then i'll tell you :-)

RKH Sea Lion.

EIS said 30.5 days drilling time to TD

Spud RNS said drilling time 34 days to TD

Actual time to TD 17/18 days

20th day "initial wireline logging oil discovery"

27th day "Complete of all wireline tests"

Who knows - but very soon they will know if they need to do a full wireline suite including pressure tests and fluid samples - or not.


Presently there is no hard selling pressure - so the negative rumours are BS.
Presently there is no hard buying pressure - so the positive rumours are BS.

Presently it seems NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING - thats why we are sat in the 70's - half way between the high 90's and the low 50;'s of this week - which just says many people got scared and derisked selling some, half or all of their holdings Monday and purchased some back on Wednesday after becoming not scared so much - but still very nervous

"Presently it seems NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING" - Actually, apart from the RNS, nobody has known anything since the spud. It's all been rumour & speculation.

No news today and its all eyes on the Sunday Times and Danny boy.

I am interested if anyone can back up this claim of flow test equipment being moved.

We know RKH said all along no flow testing planned, until they struck oil and then they planned it and it had to be mobilised down to the FI.

FOGL have also said, like RKH, no flow testing planned however its very different for FOGL, they have to drill Scotia next to comply with the Noble farm in - so they either do a preliminary flow test of any oil find now or they have to wait and do a full flow test in late 2014 with an appraisal well.

It would make sense to try to do a short one now to prove flow and keep the markets happy before they P&A and move off to Scotia.

But then perhaps the person who started that rumour is hoping thats what we all think. At least their street cred is on the line now - will it be another poster to ignore in future, or one to add to your favourites list ?

I'm staying put until results.....and probably staying put until the next drilling campaign.......

I am really an outsider looking in. A realtive newcomer and only have a toe dipped in (basically what i can afford).

But it seems to me the fundamentals are this:.

1. RNS is most likely going to come on monday so any position needs to be taken today if you havent already got one, if you want to play that is.

2. The downside on a duster is probably 50% loss at current sp.

3. The upside could be big but lets say a possible 10 times increase in todays sp for good news.

4. From what ive heard on here, and given the geoligists must have thought there is something there weve got a 5 to 1 shot of sucess.

5. If it isnt good news we get a second shot and lets be honest there is almost certainly more oil in this area waiting to be found.

So, from an unbiased point of view from somebody who stands to loose or gain very little with either outcome, its a no brainer for a punt.

If you were to ask me to give you £50 so you could put it on a horse. But in this race if the horse looses i would get £25 back or a free punt on the next race. If you also then told me the true odds of winning were 5 to 1, but you would give me 10 to 1, i would be very interested.

Anyhow, no one knows the outcome , but the odds in my opinion are very generous.

You have to be in it to win it. Pity i dont have much to go in it with.

Good luck.