http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

And one from Dalesman



Hi Everyone

Been away from the boards today - best idea I've had in a long time!

I'm going to get involved in the Mugs Game - valuing without all the data!

So what price the Akri Bijeel block?

I'm going to be very brave and try to value both the drilled and un-drilled blocks at Akri Bijeel.

To return to the question - whats it worth?

Well it all depends!

What do we know?

1. Akri bijeel has 2.4b barrels OIP

2. Beckme is drilling ahead to Australia - Bekhme-1 exploration well drilling below 4,800 metres so probably in the Triassic heading for the Permian

3. AB block will be sold for 100s of thousands (Ewan today). (I like the blue ones on honey comb ice-cream! :0)

4 UBS Warberg expected 7.2b over the whole block divided as follows:

Alkri Bejeel - 1 b
Aqra - 3 b
Beckme - 3 b


In reality the expected 1b at Akri Bijeel turned into 2.4. So much for UBS!

So using a pro-rata upgrade we get :

Beckme - 7.2b
Aqra - 7.2b

This would give a prospective total of 16.8b

This is probably near the truth or even well short of the truth but perhaps a more conservative OIP would be better at this time.

So we get to rumour which currently has Beckme at 5b and perhaps we should let Aqra remain at 3b but it seems reasonable to include the 4th anticline Goleck? at 1b and of course Akri Bijeel at 2.4b

These are the figs I've entered into the NAV

Example A

A total of 11.4 billion barrels.

This gives a total of 393m barrels to GKP.

If we applied the Tony Hayward $5.8 / barrel we get the following: $2239m WOW!

However this would be for fully appraised reserves as well as some contingent reserves - it does show the potential upside to a buyer but IMHO this fig is not achievable.

Example B

If we use the Afren $1-2/barrel paid for contingent reserves we get a range between 393m and 786m

This is much more inline with the 100s of thousands mentioned by Ewan.

Example C

Lets go a little further. Given that a well has been drilled on both Beckme and Akri Bijeel I think that 2.5/barrel would be appropriate on these structures giving

255.6 x $2.5 = 635m + $1/barrel (undrilled blocks) x139.44 = $774m


Of course we may end up with the minimum case:

Example D

AB - 2.4m
Beckme - 3b
Aqra- 3b
Goleck - 500m

Total 307.58m barrels at say $1.5/barrel= $461.57m

This does not include any risking but it does illustrate the range of values possible somewhere between $774 - 461m

At this stage in the game its very difficult to predict a value but somewhere between $ 500m - 774m seems reasonable! This is somewhere between 50 & 1 / share

Looks positive!

I.m preparing a very long post based on the RNS but that is going to take a little longer!

Kind regards

Dalesman

I am very eager to find out how these blocks will be valued in reality! Can't wait!

tp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8763385/Gulf-Keystone-and-Rockhopper-unveil-oil-plans-for-Iraq-and-the-Falklands.html

222m asking price according to report.

That is the price WITHOUT the result from Bekhme-1.

Now if Bekhme-1 gives another 6 to 8 billion barrels then the price will be in the 1 billion US$ range for the sale of the 20%.

Lovely.

Onwards to 200p soon.

Back to square one,maybe???



http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20110915071519

15 Sep 2011 AK News

Kurds end negotiations with Baghdad, discuss withdrawal from government

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ar&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.burathanews.com%2Fnews_article_136178.html

Good news if true, get cashed up and get on with it. Should see the share price rise strongly again once this placing is done.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/markets/article3166929.ece

"Gulf Keystone Petroleum, an oil explorer operating in the Kurdish region of Iraq, was marked 8p lower to 169p as it looked to raise $200 million by selling new shares to investors at 170p-172p each. Mirabaud Securities was handling the business."

.

well i am based at citi group centre / cw i can tell you name chatter is that short term fund raising should proceed to around $/ 250m - it is not decided how to raise this yet - either way in the short term sp may reverse a little - BUT NOT FOR LONG!!! although denial by kozza ref t/o if push comes to shove at right sp he would not be able to stop it!! gla

Response to Press Speculation
Gulf Keystone notes recent press speculation and confirms that the Company is considering its options with regards to an equity fund-raising.

Further details will be announced as appropriate.

indeed they are - gl

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201109200700115332O

140p placing.

RNS Number : 5332O

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.

20 September 2011

Not for release, publication or distribution in or into the United States or jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom and Bermuda where to do so would constitute a contravention of the relevant laws of such jurisdiction.

Neither this Announcement nor any part of it constitutes an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy, subscribe or acquire any new Common Shares in any jurisdiction in which any such offer or solicitation would be unlawful.

20 September 2011

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")

Fully Subscribed US$ 200.00 million Placing

Increased focus on aggressive exploration and appraisal in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Gulf Keystone is pleased to announce that it has successfully raised through Mirabaud Securities LLP gross proceeds of US$200,000.000 through a conditional oversubscribed placing of 91,120,000 new Common Shares of US$ 0.01 each in the Company (the "Placing Shares") at a placing price of 140 p per share (the "Placing Price")(the "Placing").

Use of Proceeds

In line with the Company's forward strategy announced on 14 September 2011 and in order to increase the focus on the aggressive programme of exploration and appraisal of the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr blocks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the net proceeds of the Placing will primarily be applied towards:

-- Progressing the work on the Shaikan Field Development Plan by the dedicated development team

-- Completing the Front End Engineering and Design for the Company's pipeline capable of transporting a minimum of 440,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") from the Shaikan field to the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline

-- Ordering of long lead items for the construction of the Company's dedicated pipeline, subject to necessary approvals

-- Upgrading the Shaikan Extended Well Test ("EWT") facilities to increase existing production from Shaikan-1 & 3 to 20,000 bopd

-- Building additional testing and production facilities for Shaikan-2 & 4 capable of producing 20,000 bopd, following successful well tests at Shaikan-2 and in anticipation of positive results from Shaikan-4

-- Drilling of the second exploration well on the Sheikh Adi block

-- Acquisition of 3D seismic data over the Ber Bahr block where the first exploration well is due to spud in October 2011

This additional funding, alongside the announced intention to sell the 20% interest in the Akri-Bijeel block, will further strengthen Gulf Keystone's financial position and allow the Company to concentrate fully on the task of proving up the resource base across the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr blocks.

Todd Kozel, Executive Chairman and CEO, commented:

"Gulf Keystone's forward strategy is about successfully proving the full potential of our assets in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and becoming one of the top E&P players in the FTSE 250 index. The Board views this most recent oversubscribed fund-raising as an important vote of confidence from existing shareholders and new institutional investors in the Company's ability to explore and appraise at least 12 billion barrels of gross oil-in-place across our three licences, to increase production from the world-class Shaikan discovery to 20,000 bopd in 2012 and potentially up to 40,000 bopd thereafter, and to bring Shaikan crude to the international markets via our own pipeline. We are proceeding with our aggressive drilling schedule for the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr blocks and look forward to completing the ongoing work on the Shaikan production facilities, the Shaikan Field Development Plan and the pipeline project. This work will continue adding significant value to our working interest position in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq".

i hope people were able to sell on time when i sent the note some days again to buy back later - additionally there is more of the similar to come so be on your toes - gl

i sold some yesterday and have just bought back purely because order book looks pretty strong

I sold just under half the other day,..wished I had sold the lot but a strong rebound is possible here....12 billion barrels is not to be sneezed at !.

Finally broke the 148p offer lasting over 15 minutes

now there are 173K more buys on the order book, change to 200K

Something positive on those trying to sell shares that just bought at the placing @ 140p..... 6 months lock-up

Interpretation of 6 months lock-up period courtesy of "theperpetualoptimist" from iii's bb

"...In the meantime to lower my blood pressure I read the very long and very boring appendix to the RNS and found one little nugget of positive news. The shares issued today cannot be sold enblock to a predator for 6 months (point 11). They can only be sold through the normal market mechanisms. This means that the institutions receiving the shares are, for 6 months, forced to be "safe hands" in so far as they cannot do deals with a hostile bidder."

good to see people doing well - gl

I too sold half on yesterdays news,almost predictable the placing would be lower.Overall a good piece of news,come next year the benefits will be for all to see. Holding on to see
how the market holds up,before releasing cash,although it looks a snip at the present SP?

Trying to break the 150p now as the order book got very strong on the bid side

Youngman..tatatatatttaaa...I said youngman...tatatataaa...youngman.....macho..macho..machoman.....
really catchy tune.....can't quite remember where the hell I heard it....