moving up to 1.2%

Buy recommendation over the weekend in either Telegraph or Times. Forget which.

Almost everyone is recommending this share. We'll see produce soon. Amazing uptrend.

http://www.gtp.com.au/hardman/inewsfiles/5JulyMauritaniaJVApproves2004DrillingPlans.pdf

I moved the Argentinian drilling rig General Mosconi from Bahia Blanca to Comodoro Rivadavia many years ago for a drilling programme, they have been drilling there for years. Thats just 400 miles NW of Falklands, so there's got to be oil in Falkland waters.

OPEC to keep grip as oil supply lags demand
Tue 13 July, 2004 12:15



By Jonathan Leff

LONDON (Reuters) - The world's dependence on OPEC's oil is expected to increase again next year, supporting cartel efforts to keep prices high as robust demand growth outpaces non-OPEC output, a Reuters survey has found.

Demand growth is likely to climb by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, well in advance of extra non-OPEC supply of just one million bpd, according to a survey of 13 analysts.

"The narrative is that demand is weaker than this year, but non-OPEC supply growth will still not be able to meet it," said Roger Diwan, managing director of the Washington DC-based Petroleum Finance Company.

This means the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about a third of the world's oil, should have little difficult maintaining its grip on markets, keeping inventories low to extend an oil-price rally into a sixth year.

Many analysts now expect the challenge for OPEC to be less one of maintaining a floor for prices than managing to keep up with robust demand growth in the face of limited spare capacity.

"Our view is that OPEC...doesn't have a lot of spare capacity to bring this market down," said Jeff Currie, head of Goldman Sachs' global commodities research.

Demand next year is forecast to rise to about 83 million bpd, up from a mean base of 81.2 million bpd this year, while non-OPEC supply climbs to 50.8 million bpd, the survey found.

Estimates on outright levels differed depending on varied baseline assumptions for this year. The range of demand growth forecasts varied from 1.4 to 2.4 million bpd, while non-OPEC supply growth was pegged between 700,000 bpd and 1.4 million bpd.

The International Energy Agency releases its forecasts for 2005 on Tuesday.

PRICES TO STAY HIGH

Demand growth is seen surging 2.3 million bpd in 2004, the fastest in 24 years, according to the IEA's last monthly report. Non-OPEC supplies, however, are rising only by 1.2 million bpd.

"Even though OPEC's market share is not going up as much in 2005 as this year, the upward pressure on prices probably remains," said Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Sieminski.

That is in part because the anticipated surge in non-cartel production that had once been forecast for next year appears to have fizzled.

Some major West African and Caspian oil mega-projects are taking longer than expected, and the outlook for the former Soviet Union as a whole now appears bleaker than before, particularly given the threat to major producer YUKOS.

"Going forward, Russia's growth profile is a critical element in a supply side that is looking increasingly challenged in keeping up with demand," said Barclays Capital in a report.

Last week the U.S. Department of Energy downgraded its 2005 supply forecast for the former Soviet Union, a major engine for non-OPEC growth, by 500,000 bpd to 11.5 million bpd in this month's short-term outlook.

It now expects only 500,000 bpd growth from the region this year. This has in turn pushed its total non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2005 down to 1.1 million bpd from 1.5 million bpd.

Meeting another year of two-percent-plus demand growth will depend on a continuing economic recovery in the United States and growth from China, which has been the primary engine for this year's surge, analysts say.

"The question is whether continuing robust economic growth is consistent with continuing high oil prices," said Steve Turner, oil analyst with Commerzbank.

US stocks turn lower as oil price jumps
By Elizabeth Wine in New York
Published: July 14 2004 13:56 | Last Updated: July 14 2004 19:36


US markets turned lower in afternoon trade as investors reacted to a jump in the oil price and refreshed terror fears, and continued to fret about disappointing guidance from Intel and an unexpected dip in retail sales.


With a few hours left in the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1 per cent at 10,237.86, while the S&P 500 was off fractionally at 1,114.91. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.3 per cent at 1,925.16.

Oil prices leapt above $40 a barrel on reports the FBI warned local law enforcement agencies that recent overseas terrorist attacks "highlight terrorists' interests in targeting energy-related infrastructures."

very very interesting

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/3625207.stm

LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices held firm near $41 on Friday as the most robust demand growth for more than two decades pushes OPEC to keep pumping crude at near capacity, leaving world supplies vulnerable to the slightest production hiccups.
U.S. light crude rose 18 cents to $40.95 a barrel, just a hair away from a six-week high of $41.12 touched on Wednesday. And prices are near June's $42.45 peak, a record for the contract's 21-year history.
European benchmark Brent was up 29 cents at $37.77 a barrel, buoyed by an exceptionally strong cash crude market in the North Sea.
Gains were spurred this week by an unexpected decline in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, plus worries that heating oil supplies are not being built-up quickly enough ahead of the winter.
The U.S. oil data added to fears over supply disruptions at a time when output capacity was being stretched by rapidly growing demand -- estimated to be expanding at 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, its fastest clip in 24 years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is proceeding with its planned output ceiling hike of 500,000 bpd from August 1 in an effort to cool prices, but it looks unlikely to mean more crude.
The group, which controls around half the world's oil exports, is already pumping nearly two million bpd over its new 26 million bpd August quota, very near the its maximum capacity.
With little to discuss, the cartel cancelled next week's planned ministerial meeting. It will next meet September 15.
"The cartel perhaps concluded that aside from the Saudis, the rest of the group is pretty much tapped out in terms of exports," said Ed Meir, analyst at brokers Man Financial. "Therefore, having a meeting to discuss more 'phantom' quota increases would be of little use."
Kuwait said on Thursday it had spare oil production capacity of almost 100,000 bpd, while Saudi Arabia, which has been producing around 9.1 million bpd, has the capacity to crank it up to 10.5 million bpd.
"The meeting is cancelled because the market is stable. There is no problem at the moment because the decision to increase 500,000 bpd from August 1 is in place," OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro told Reuters on Friday.
HEATING OIL WORRIES
Distillate supplies in the United States, where the Northeast region is a major winter-time consumer of heating oil, have emerged as an early driver for the energy complex as dealers fretted over the pace of pre-winter inventory building.
Heating oil futures reached a year-and-a-half high of $1.1080 a gallon this week, the strongest on record for July, when gasoline is typically the market's strongest product. On Friday, it was trading up 22 points at $1.1008.
Seeking to avoid panic buying, the U.S. government Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday there was plenty of time to boost heating oil inventories before the winter heating season arrives, so traders should not bid up fuel prices.
It's much too early to worry about heating fuel supplies, EIA administrator Guy Caruso told reporters.
This week's EIA data reported a significant build up of 2.7 million barrels in middle distillate inventories for the week ended July 9, putting them three percent above this time last year.
Caruso conceded that the United States came out of the spring with relatively low heating oil stocks, but added that if crude imports continued to average 10 million bpd and there were no major refinery outages, heating oil stocks should be in the "normal zone" by November.
Still analysts said that, while stock levels looked comfortable on the surface, rapid economic growth could place more demands on inventories than in previous years.
Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo, said fund speculators would remain on the buy side of the market on persistent fears of disruptions to crude flows in Iraq and possible refinery outages in the United States.
"There are no bearish factors in the market. Already we are over $40 and there is still room to move higher," he said.

xmortal,

Thanks for posting that, and the oil market currently has a healthy look about it!

Hardman however, IMHO, is all about sentiment, and a couple of decent exploration results will drive this higher even if crude retraces.

Nice little tick up this morning!

yes, andy.... The up trend is established so im just riding it while it last. I placed a punt on here and im sure it willmove slowly but surely on drilling and high oil price expectations. Enjoy

Good to see that Fidelity have built up a 6% stake. They tend to get things right more than not.

Hardman Resources Limited
03 August 2004




STOCK EXCHANGE / MEDIA RELEASE TO AIM

RELEASE DATE: 3 August 2004

CONTACT: Kathryn Davies (08 9321 6881)

RE: CHANGE IN SUBSTANTIAL HOLDING

PAGES: 1

Please note that Hardman Resources Ltd was notified on 3 August 2004 that
entities owned or managed by Fidelity Management and Research Company Limited
and Fidelity International Limited hold 39,459,934 shares in the Company,
representing 6.08%.




TED ELLYARD
MANAGING DIRECTOR

Described by IC as having "good looking assets, with plenty of upside". Sounds sexy to me!!

Bought in yesterday instead of ETQ. Last bit of dosh left now fully invested.
Did I make the right choice?

Mickyskint

mickey,

Hope so!

personally I think both shares are speculative, and ETQ is being ramped on ADVFN, and to a lesser extent here, which would make me wary of investing there.

Hardman have an whole lot of wells to drill in the near future, so worth a speculative punt at least IMHO.

tipped in the Sunday Telegraph, but did not make much impact!!

Security alert in Mauritania!! Stock down about 13% in early trading. Assuming this blows over, could it be a buying oppotunity?

""could it be a buying oppotunity?""

Could be, or things could get worse before getting better

The main politcal concern in Mauritania is an invasion from neighbouring country

Mauri a poor country, has only a population of about 3 million so we can assume not much in line of defence

I sold about 80% of my holding last week at circa 92p, but that based was on a new fangled chart system that I devised
good luck

jal