.

Any more rumours ?....

Come on, have a go - what do you think and why ?

Positive me will go for :

Three Bears was not there - seismic wrong and the anomaly was actually in the Upper Cretaceous, not the lower Tertiary T3.

New Upper Cretaceous oil discovery made - net pay - potential for more below this (as in the Campos Basin Upper Jurassic).

Deeper levels of Upper Cretaceous will be drilled next time, following 3D work in 2013, with an appraisal well in 2014.


There, thats my guess and its likely to be totally wrong :) !!!

Whats yours............... ??

Ha ha ha!!!

crikey .... is this our friendly biblical character back from the empty quarter?

Blimmy i wonder where he copied and pasted that from!!! He must of worn himself out thinking this morning with all those so called rumours.

shame market didn't buy this morning's story and whizz sp up to about 80, as that was my target for starting a short

I not bothered where the Oil/Gas is/comes from so long as its of commercial quantities..;D))
Is it a matter of days before we find out..

Well, another rumour..........


Black Gold @Oil_Falklands

HEARING GOOD NEWS FROM THE FALKLANDS.....YOU KNOW WHAT I AM ON ABOUT............:)

the market isn't listening ..... he'd better try again but louder

cynic they are all asleep........snore.....snore zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

The market does not know anything, nor do I, nor do you............

AKA - price going nowhere - everything up in the air and all to play for.

Who will have the weekend story ?

The Sun ?

The Sunday Times ?


Or none of them ?

probably "The Rockhopper Times"............ who gives a toss.

All I can say.........Well done to FOGL "keeping whatever the result under wraps"?

How do they do that, what with mobile/satellite technology.........Must be all locked away..........They will get them back on Monday morning me thinks?

Now the market has closed I have something interesting.

CHAR stock on loan showed a jump in the shorts position Thu 6th/ Fri 7th Sept - and duster come on Mon 10th Sept. Big selling Tue 4th, then some stuck a few sly shorts on 6/7.

FOGL has not had any stock on loan (shorts) spike, in fact its continued down.

So it does appear nobody knows whats going on at Loligo.


On CHAR they knew ahead of the RNS it seems, sold heavily and the plopped a few shorts on for good luck and some tea money - but not on FOGL.

CHAR below :




FOGL below :



.

hey hali, even you must admit that TLW is better than this one!

r f

I had a pair of trousers back in the seventies that flared a bit....but not on that scale...

that was very funny

Cheers...(:)).....hoping for a result here for a change as there have been so many duds these last few years...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fRZC1ZA_pc&feature=related

Take a gander at this video. Explains clearly how well logging works and what they are looking for.

At the end of the day its very very easy to call "Duster" and be right 80 times in 100.

Wildcat exploration is basically a 20% CoS and 80% Chance of Failure, which is why many of those not in FOGL or who sold out last week are now all proclaiming duster on Monday.

Its not a bad call, they have an 80% chance of being correct and are all posting it so that they can claim, in future, to be some kind of guru and quote back to "I called Loligo a duster and it was"........

That is how sad some people are, they will be linking back to their duster posts for years to come (or quickly deleting them if its not). I called CHAR a duster on ADFN from the 4th of Sept and it was on the 10th - so what - who cares - whooppee doo daa - it means nothing.

The laws of probability say the end result of this well will be a duster, you cannot argue with the odds, 80% chance of failure. Nobody is being brave or taking a big risk by saying "Its going to be a duster".


The important thing to look at is the share price reaction. Not everyone was like me and buying this big in the 40's and 50's - so many people will have higher averages.

History teaches you this about oily stocks. Its not over until the last well in a campaign is sunk.

DES never capitulated until its last well was drilled - the share price kept coming back up as each new drill offers multi-bagging potential. Only if your last well is done and you have no more cash for drilling - then its game over.

CHAR never capitulated after Tapir duster, it came back to near 130p ahead of Nimrod, but Nimrod was the last well for a long time and so it capitulated back to cash level of 31p when Nimrod was a duster.

BOR was 60p ahead of Darwin, it went up and come back down to 60p ahead of Stebbing (as you are drilling again). It only capitulated when the last drill was over (Stebbing) and they had no more funds for drilling.

FOGL will not capitulate and stay down if Loligo is a duster. They will have after the next Scotia drill over 40p a share cash, they have the Scotia drill up next and whatever price it falls to on a duster it should be back near the 80p levels ahead of Scotia drill results.

If Scotia is a duster (if Loligo is as well) then yes, they will do a CHAR and fall down to circa 40p a share cash levels - awaiting their next moves. They are fully funded to do 3D in 2013 and drill 4 or so wells in 2014.


There will be a large drop for a period of time on any duster news because -

The stupid people who have got spread bets or margin positions will be forced out. Never use margin on high risk plays !!!!!!!!!

Many people will have set stop losses - and the MM's will drive the price down as low as possible to knock out all the stop loss positions (they know like I know the price will bounce back ahead of Scotia). Most stop loss positions are highlighted to MM's via your broker - they know where they are set and can knock them all out.

The ill informed will panic sell on seeing a large drop - assisted by the BB muppets screaming "Duster, told you so, its going to 20p".........


And thanks to the three categories above I (and many others including those presently saying duster, and those who will be screaming "its going to 20p") will be rushing to buy FOGL on any duster news RNS to pick up cheap stock - because everyone knows the price will recover again in the coming weeks/month as the Scotia drill comes into focus.


So be prepared for a duster, I am, and ready to buy hard on any fall. Do not lose sleep over it being a duster, its 80% odds on it will be. Do not think anyone saying its a duster is some kind of guru - they are just playing the odds, if you had a 5 cards and 4 were Aces and 1 not - you would be pretty sure you could pull an Ace from the 5 would you not.

And if its not a duster - then just enjoy it...................its rare to be long in a stock that pulls off wildcat success........