.

r f

I had a pair of trousers back in the seventies that flared a bit....but not on that scale...

that was very funny

Cheers...(:)).....hoping for a result here for a change as there have been so many duds these last few years...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fRZC1ZA_pc&feature=related

Take a gander at this video. Explains clearly how well logging works and what they are looking for.

At the end of the day its very very easy to call "Duster" and be right 80 times in 100.

Wildcat exploration is basically a 20% CoS and 80% Chance of Failure, which is why many of those not in FOGL or who sold out last week are now all proclaiming duster on Monday.

Its not a bad call, they have an 80% chance of being correct and are all posting it so that they can claim, in future, to be some kind of guru and quote back to "I called Loligo a duster and it was"........

That is how sad some people are, they will be linking back to their duster posts for years to come (or quickly deleting them if its not). I called CHAR a duster on ADFN from the 4th of Sept and it was on the 10th - so what - who cares - whooppee doo daa - it means nothing.

The laws of probability say the end result of this well will be a duster, you cannot argue with the odds, 80% chance of failure. Nobody is being brave or taking a big risk by saying "Its going to be a duster".


The important thing to look at is the share price reaction. Not everyone was like me and buying this big in the 40's and 50's - so many people will have higher averages.

History teaches you this about oily stocks. Its not over until the last well in a campaign is sunk.

DES never capitulated until its last well was drilled - the share price kept coming back up as each new drill offers multi-bagging potential. Only if your last well is done and you have no more cash for drilling - then its game over.

CHAR never capitulated after Tapir duster, it came back to near 130p ahead of Nimrod, but Nimrod was the last well for a long time and so it capitulated back to cash level of 31p when Nimrod was a duster.

BOR was 60p ahead of Darwin, it went up and come back down to 60p ahead of Stebbing (as you are drilling again). It only capitulated when the last drill was over (Stebbing) and they had no more funds for drilling.

FOGL will not capitulate and stay down if Loligo is a duster. They will have after the next Scotia drill over 40p a share cash, they have the Scotia drill up next and whatever price it falls to on a duster it should be back near the 80p levels ahead of Scotia drill results.

If Scotia is a duster (if Loligo is as well) then yes, they will do a CHAR and fall down to circa 40p a share cash levels - awaiting their next moves. They are fully funded to do 3D in 2013 and drill 4 or so wells in 2014.


There will be a large drop for a period of time on any duster news because -

The stupid people who have got spread bets or margin positions will be forced out. Never use margin on high risk plays !!!!!!!!!

Many people will have set stop losses - and the MM's will drive the price down as low as possible to knock out all the stop loss positions (they know like I know the price will bounce back ahead of Scotia). Most stop loss positions are highlighted to MM's via your broker - they know where they are set and can knock them all out.

The ill informed will panic sell on seeing a large drop - assisted by the BB muppets screaming "Duster, told you so, its going to 20p".........


And thanks to the three categories above I (and many others including those presently saying duster, and those who will be screaming "its going to 20p") will be rushing to buy FOGL on any duster news RNS to pick up cheap stock - because everyone knows the price will recover again in the coming weeks/month as the Scotia drill comes into focus.


So be prepared for a duster, I am, and ready to buy hard on any fall. Do not lose sleep over it being a duster, its 80% odds on it will be. Do not think anyone saying its a duster is some kind of guru - they are just playing the odds, if you had a 5 cards and 4 were Aces and 1 not - you would be pretty sure you could pull an Ace from the 5 would you not.

And if its not a duster - then just enjoy it...................its rare to be long in a stock that pulls off wildcat success........

Anyway, back to the duster theories..........

Why could it be a duster ? Lack of charge - I hope not, that would be bad.

So what then ?

Firstly, this area has a high risk of Kaolinite - this clay is a "pore clogger" and make sandstone permeability very low - eg tight.

This could be the case in the upper Tertiary targets imo - could be hydrocarbon traces but Kaolinite or other clay (Chlorite) is blocking the pores, tight reservoirs - not commercial.


Lower tertiary and upper cretaceous, you would expect unconsolidated sands (that means loose sand as opposed to sandstone). Most of the Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous wells offshore Brazil and also West Africa are "unconsolidated" sands - they used to be together did South America and West Africa - yes, we know that).

In this scenario clays are not an issue.



Thats just my thoughts thought on if its a duster, then why.

Possible that :

a/ Bottom of the Tertiary or Upper Cretaceous has sealed off the upper targets, which are dry.

b/ Potential the upper Tertiary targets were tight, due to Kaolinite or other clay.

c/ I hope its not a lack of charge !



Monday RNS - 4 choices :

a/ Duster ?

b/ Hydrocarbons traces but tight reservoirs due to clays (Kaolinite/Chlorite) ?

c/ Upper targets cut off from charge and also tight - due to lower being charged, and lower is a unconsolidated sand reservoir - eg strike at Three Bears or lower.

d/ Still drilling or logging - news later - meaning the upper was dry, they cut through a seal down at the bottom and found some oil and are now exploring for hydrocarbons in the Upper Cretaceous, but only as far as the well integrity will let them go - its not designed to go that much deeper. Very exciting to find oil in the Upper Cretaceous as many production wells offshore Brazil and West Africa are the same - will be studying the data and returning to drill a "Loligo very deep" next time.

i can't believe that i read that correctly! ......

MrP writes
Wildcat exploration is basically a 20% CoS and 80% Chance of Failure, which is why many of those not in FOGL or who sold out last week are now all proclaiming duster on Monday ..... Its not a bad call, they have an 80% chance of being correct


this is a complete volte face and i was castigated roundly for so suggesting on numerous occasions

cynic - LOL - who by ? Perhaps you can back up what you said with a copy of the posts castigating you for it ?

You are either in with a chance or you are not.....with Scotia to follow : to me it's worth the risk......the seismic shows something big, gas oil or water is perhaps there.....they don't drag a two hundred million pound rig with another fifty million in drilling costs for no reason.....so no leaks have found their way out...and we have another spud after this and the company is well funded and the sp is not exactly high as it is...just covers cash in bank no more...so you do the maths...yes it could be a duster....but the company has other targets....and if nothing is found, I'll stay put till the next drilling campaign...

Thanks for all that!!!
Good information..

What did you expect Cynic? Pro ramper obviously closed out when the stock collapsed, his tone has changed completely since then, gone from ramptastic to fatalistic, very obvious. From what I've read on the RKH thread and elsewhere he stats off with a stated intention to hold no matter what, but always sells before he becomes a millionaire, as if :)

Another new entry on to the squelched list - chuckles, who contributes nothing at all apart from snide remarks and is therefore, a waste of space, and joins the others........

Please note the following users are on my "squelched" list, so I do not see, and therefore will not respond to, any posts they make : hilary, Master RSI, zscrooge, Balerboy, ptholden, blackdown, ravey davy gravy, cielo, markymar, halifax, machoman, riviera1069, FoodSexMusic7, chuckles

Ho yes and both the chuckle bros(chuckles&cynic) have the audacity to call me names like someones "poodle", "alter ego", etc, and to popping up after Proselenes post to back him up!!!!!... POT CALLING KETTLE BLACK springs to mind as you two appear after most post by Prose to slag him off.... lmao!!.

GB, cynic maybe a moaner but its good to have a few of them around.

Those who just have the motive to back stab and post nonsense and snide comments, well, do not need them.

Lol - I'm on a blacklist, not sure if I can suffer the upset. Not that it matters, grannyboy gets to read everything anyway. Come to think of it there can't be many posts on here the ramper gets to read, which is how rampers like it. Only interested in the ramp not what others have to say. As for grannyboy, I wonder if he's done anything useful in his life? The poodle certainly brings nothing to this thread. What a muppet, lol :) ta-da

By the way, not the irony of the poodles post immediately after the rampers! That is really hilarious, pmsl :)

unlike some, i can't be bothered to trawl back through old posts - well only very very rarely - but for sure i was taken to task on a number of occasions, either by MrP or poodle-boy or some other self-delusionaries, when i had the temerity to suggest that the chances of Loligo hitting pay-dirt were 5/1 at the very shortest ..... i'm sure it is not my imagination that those deriding me - they are more than welcome to - pointed to the towering sand dunes (well i am still in dubai!) of pseudo-science analysis and research, indicating that the odds were certainly 3/1 and perhaps better ..... indeed, i think that was to find oil, though of late, gas (which i think would have little or no value) was substituted

chuckles you've got absolutely no idea what i do in life, but i know i don't spend as much time as you do on the bb's and that goes for cynic who's "suposed" to be working in Dubai but who's been posting nearly every minute of the day..,And chuckles obviously you've not read Proselenes 1846 post!!..

poodle-boy - you've got absolutely no idea what i do in life!!

One must not forget, this is a "compromised drill".

It is not a drill aimed at hitting thickest net pay in a single target.

It is aimed at trying to get a poke into 5 different targets - whichever way possible.

This means it is passing through all 5 potential targets (if it did) in sub optimal locations - the objective of this well is to try to hit them all, and thats all.

Therefore any net pay in any target is a good result and should not be looked on it a negative way if its thin.

Future appraisal wells, if thats the case, would target the thick sections of any targets that come up positive in this drill. This drill is about getting information, hitting 5 targets at with the same drill, and trying to find some hydrocarbons.

that has to be the biggest load of rationalised bollocks i have heard in a long time! ..... leaving aside the cacophony of your last 1000 posts, you are now implying that FOGL were never really expecting a result from this well, or very little at best .... in that case, they might just as well have drilled in my back garden - at least they'ld have found drinkable water from the aquifer just a few feet down